being a switch hitter helps cortes a bit, but realistically nieves should be way better.  some players just aren't as good as their ratings and some players are better for some reason.  i dont know why, but that's just the way it is.  that said i wouldn't be surprised if cortes dies and nieves takes off after a small tweak in the engine.

whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx

this guy was an OK not great hitter for 7 years, then s18 he started raking out of the blue and kept it up for 3.5 seasons.

whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx

this guy was a beast at the plate for 5 seasons, then out of the blue became just a decent hitter for the next 7 or so.

moral of the story is that there's some weird **** going on under the covers that don't have a clear explanation based on ratings.

What you're calling "weird ****" is probably just random chance coupled with changing conditions.    This game isn't much more than a roll of weighted dice.  Some are set to come up six more often, some are weighted to come up one more often but, despite that, you can still roll a pile of 3s with either of them.   Neives has 1800 rolls with changing conditions. 

I agree for the most part, but when you have a guy who consistently OPS's .950 for 5 seasons and then drops to .800 for the next 5 without any ratings change, or when one player is outperformed by somebody with obviously inferior ratings over the course of 3-4 seasons that it's probably more than just a SSS.

Regression to the mean?

Seriously, I've yet to see two players, over the course of their career under the same conditions, where one was obviously better than the other, produce "HUH????" results.    They always play to their ratings if given the chance.  

Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Patrick Diaz

When I traded for him, I was expecting .800 OPS(more or less).   Declining ratings but moving to a hitter's park.    His first 100 AB were horrible.   Hitting about .170 so I made another move.   He was buried on the bench.    With fatigue setting in, Diaz is getting back on the field.  Hitting about .340 since getting some PT and edging towards that .800 OPS.   Sometimes they play to their ratings quickly, sometimes it takes awhile. 

Well you're not going to have extreme cases like a 50/50/50/50/50 guy posting a .900 career OPS or a 90/90/90/90/90 guy posting a career .750 OPS.

But I do think that players deviate from their expected ratings enough such that you can create a formula to deduce their true mean over a large sample size.  I'd bet that you can have two players with identical ratings where one posts a .750 career OPS and the other is at .875.  not exactly "HUHH???" but it does vary from expectation to a noticeable extent.

here's a good comparison

superior ratings

whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx


superior performance

whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx

or maybe the moral of the story is that switch hitters rule the world!

A few things I notice.  Not on the same team.   One has 2300 more AB.    One has speed and can run bases.  Too many variables. 

well once you do put on the toronto uniform you sort of instantly become a winner.

Posted by deanod on 11/1/2011 12:47:00 PM (view original):
whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx

this guy was an OK not great hitter for 7 years, then s18 he started raking out of the blue and kept it up for 3.5 seasons.

whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx

this guy was a beast at the plate for 5 seasons, then out of the blue became just a decent hitter for the next 7 or so.

moral of the story is that there's some weird **** going on under the covers that don't have a clear explanation based on ratings.

Obviously, they love playing for you. They over performed when on your team and underperformed on all the other teams. You must have a luck horseshoe shoved up your ***.

deano has "Reacharound Day" with the team twice a week.

i actually sort of do have a lucky horseshoe sticking out of my *** at most times.