ESPN is reporting a new CBA.   There are some changes which could effect HBD.  For instance,

"Major league free agent compensation will be completely revised in 2013, with a team having to offer its former players who became free agents the average of the top 125 contracts -- currently about $12 million -- to receive draft-pick compensation if a player signs with a new team. It eliminates the statistical formula that had been in place since the 1981 strike settlement"

Also,

"Owners achieved their goal of reining in spending on amateur players coming to the major leagues. For high school and college players taken in the June amateur draft, there will be five bands of penalties, starting with a 75 percent tax on the amount 0-5 percent over a specified threshold for each team next year, based on its selection spot. For teams going 5-10 percent over, the tax will rise to 100 percent and they will lose their next first-round draft pick. If a team goes more than 15 percent over, it could lose its following two first-round draft picks.

For players taken in the 11th round and beyond, teams may give them signing bonuses up to $100,000 without it counting against the new threshold.

For international amateur signings from nations such as the Dominican Republic and Venezuela, a luxury tax will begin with the July 2012-June 2013 signing season."


So we have slot contracts for draft picks, a tax on Internationals and a 12M+ tender offer to receive type-A compensation.   Personally, the tender off (if implemented correctly) could be a good change for HBD.  I dont know if the others have any place in HBD. 

It may also be time for WIS to introduce "Super-Two" into arbitration process as it's being expanded in the new CBA:

"In addition, the portion of players with 2-3 years of major league service who are eligible for salary arbitration will rise from 17 percent to 22 percent starting in 2013."

And if they do implement the new tax on amateur signings, that seems to provide a lot of dis-incentive to draft non-slot prospects because of the risk of losing future draft picks.  I think that would require a whole redesign of the part of the engine that drives the post-draft asking/signing process, especially with respect to draftees salary demands.

I'm guessing that Scott Boras has dropped Michael Weiner from his holiday card list for agreeing to that.

I really like the tender offer in order to get free agent compensation.  That would prevent the players that have the overall ranking to be a Type A but really don't deserve to be a type A from earning the designation and thus sitting out there until the prospects are shown unsigned.  I like how the draft signing works in HBD though so wouldn't change that.

+1 on the tender offer to become a Type A, though I think $12M might be a bit much in HBD, maybe something in the $8M-$10M range

Posted by tecwrg on 11/22/2011 3:42:00 PM (view original):
And if they do implement the new tax on amateur signings, that seems to provide a lot of dis-incentive to draft non-slot prospects because of the risk of losing future draft picks.  I think that would require a whole redesign of the part of the engine that drives the post-draft asking/signing process, especially with respect to draftees salary demands.

I'm guessing that Scott Boras has dropped Michael Weiner from his holiday card list for agreeing to that.

I don't think it'll last, the small market teams are the ones paying over slot mostly since its the only way they can really compete, taxing them so they can't over slot is counter productive to competative balance in the long run. I think the back channels will massage the details into something much less draconian over the 5yr cycle.

Posted by mongoose_22 on 11/22/2011 5:53:00 PM (view original):
+1 on the tender offer to become a Type A, though I think $12M might be a bit much in HBD, maybe something in the $8M-$10M range

It shouldn't be a hard 12M limit, it should fluctuate based on world; since it isn't hard to work out the value for the world based on the top 125 contracts. I never liked how guys were auto offered arbitration, i'd like to see a new task on budget day for this to see so that we weed out the worthless guys from compensation. I think the real trick would be to work out whether a player will accept/decline the contract offer.

Interesting idea crump. I also just read, according to the new CBA, that teams will only get comp picks for players lost to free agency if that player was on the team's roster for the entire season. I.E. no comp picks for those deadline pickups who only play with your team for half a season then go looking for the big payday.

I think that also makes sense for HBD... thoughts?

Posted by Crump123 on 11/22/2011 6:08:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 11/22/2011 3:42:00 PM (view original):
And if they do implement the new tax on amateur signings, that seems to provide a lot of dis-incentive to draft non-slot prospects because of the risk of losing future draft picks.  I think that would require a whole redesign of the part of the engine that drives the post-draft asking/signing process, especially with respect to draftees salary demands.

I'm guessing that Scott Boras has dropped Michael Weiner from his holiday card list for agreeing to that.

I don't think it'll last, the small market teams are the ones paying over slot mostly since its the only way they can really compete, taxing them so they can't over slot is counter productive to competative balance in the long run. I think the back channels will massage the details into something much less draconian over the 5yr cycle.

I was talking about HBD, not MLB.

The small market teams aren't the only ones paying over slot.  The reason they spend more on the draft is because the cost of the top picks.  When you take away Strasburg and Harper's bonuses, or Hosmer and Starling's, or Cole and Tailon's, or Machado and Weiters', those teams are not spending as much as the Red Sox.  These teams weren't spending more to get an advantage, they had to spend more or be at a disadvantage in rounds 2-10.  The soft cap based of draft position doesn't hurt the Royals as much as it knee caps the Red Sox.

crump, easy solution to the arb guys you dont like.  Simply release them!  No need to pay arb to a guy thats been dropped from your roster.

Posted by greeny9 on 11/22/2011 7:44:00 PM (view original):
crump, easy solution to the arb guys you dont like.  Simply release them!  No need to pay arb to a guy thats been dropped from your roster.

He was talking about the fact that all departing free agents were technically offered arbitration - not about crappy arb guys.

Posted by AlCheez on 11/23/2011 8:58:00 AM (view original):

Posted by greeny9 on 11/22/2011 7:44:00 PM (view original):
crump, easy solution to the arb guys you dont like.  Simply release them!  No need to pay arb to a guy thats been dropped from your roster.

He was talking about the fact that all departing free agents were technically offered arbitration - not about crappy arb guys.

Yep, to get compensation in MLB you had to offer ARB to the FA who then declined to enter FA (i recently read Jim Hendry frequently didn't do this for the Cubs, i dont know if its true or not, if it's true i'm flabbergasted at the incompetence). HBD assumes that all players are offered arb and then always decline, i didn't like the simplification.

Posted by tecwrg on 11/22/2011 3:42:00 PM (view original):
And if they do implement the new tax on amateur signings, that seems to provide a lot of dis-incentive to draft non-slot prospects because of the risk of losing future draft picks.  I think that would require a whole redesign of the part of the engine that drives the post-draft asking/signing process, especially with respect to draftees salary demands.

I'm guessing that Scott Boras has dropped Michael Weiner from his holiday card list for agreeing to that.

I'd bet one of Boras' lawyers has already found some small print that will let him find a new way to help GMs make complete idiots of themselves while making him richer.