Two things:

1) My experience makes me quite sceptical that 20+ year old internationals will reach their projections. I really prefer the 18-year-old crowd.

2) How much are his demands? And is he a looking-to-sign type, or an offer-is-right type?

These are a couple of things I would have in mind.

Still, with the #1 prospect budget, I doubt I would bid on this player early in the year. With a $30m-ish budget, this is the kind of guy I would hope to be getting as my second IFA, if I got my stud IFA, signed my draft, and still had leftover cash.

2.7 was his asking price,  Bidding is at 7 now.

Im a little iffy on him. I could use the DEF. Right now I'm bidding on him and this RP. I figure I can score them both for 10 each.. My main concern is him not reaching his fielding ratings.. I can live with his current bat but would need the GG at SS..


18yr   R/R

Event	Season	Height	Weight	OV	RA	GL	AS	AA	PC	DU	HE	SP	PA	TP	MK
Current	-	6-2	192	51	19	5	32	39	10	64	66	21	55	28	78
Projected	-	6-4	215	72	24	9	40	48	11	73	73	21	84	25	88

Batting & Pitching Ratings
Event	Season	CN	PW	LH	RH	BE	BR	BU	PP	ST	CT	LH	RH	VE	GB	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5
Current	-	11	6	13	11	4	6	47	58	14	64	56	67	36	74	75	68	0	0	0
Projected	-	17	9	15	15	4	13	68	68	21	85	83	94	43	81	86	82	0	0	0

with the most prospect cash Id be looking to snag a 1st overall worthy player, not a guy that would likely drop to 7th to 12th overall and a RP who would land slightly lower then that.  Not to say that this RP doesnt look good because he obviously does.  But Id still absolutely not take those 2 for the very very good chance of a HOFer coming up this season.

Im of the opinion that a superstar is worth way more then 2 very good players.

It is somewhat of a gamble, because its possible that a superstar doesnt come along, or one does and you dont see it.  But Id be shocked if you didnt see a player come along that was clearly better then this SS.

Posted by greeny9 on 11/22/2011 10:24:00 PM (view original):
with the most prospect cash Id be looking to snag a 1st overall worthy player, not a guy that would likely drop to 7th to 12th overall and a RP who would land slightly lower then that.  Not to say that this RP doesnt look good because he obviously does.  But Id still absolutely not take those 2 for the very very good chance of a HOFer coming up this season.

Im of the opinion that a superstar is worth way more then 2 very good players.

It is somewhat of a gamble, because its possible that a superstar doesnt come along, or one does and you dont see it.  But Id be shocked if you didnt see a player come along that was clearly better then this SS.

you're right in  a sense, but you need to be careful so as to not overrate the odds of getting a hof.  it's definitely a possibility, but they probably only show up on the IFA radar like once every 3 seasons, so in half a season w/ his scouts finding < 100%, you don't wanna treat it as a lock when it's really far from it.

i'd go for those two if the RP had higher stamina.  as it is, there's a case to be made that the split is correct.  i think it's a pretty tough decision, but i've also been striking out on IFA like a boss lately.

Posted by willsauve on 11/22/2011 8:37:00 PM (view original):
I have approx 30M prospect money.. We just had the amatuer draft.. There's only 1-2 legit defensive SS's in the world..

...

So my plan is to sign this SS for 10M and the RP for 10M and this 1st round pick to his new asking price of 10M.. If I cant fit them all in I will take my #11 COMP pick and chase a 30M HOF..

General & Fielding Ratings
Event	Season	Height	Weight	OV	RA	GL	AS	AA	PC	DU	HE	SP	PA	TP	MK
Current	-	6-1	175	47	49	32	44	38	6	47	63	64	50	55	69
Projected	-	6-1	178	81	66	49	61	63	10	73	75	64	69	49	77

Batting & Pitching Ratings
Event	Season	CN	PW	LH	RH	BE	BR	BU	PP	ST	CT	LH	RH	VE	GB	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5
Current	-	60	70	44	57	52	44	9	54	7	7	11	8	8	20	36	0	0	0	0
Projected	-	99	87	70	95	63	71	22	57	7	15	14	8	8	30	39	0	0	0	0

I gotta disagree with deano.  As a lefty, his offensive shortcomings put him below replacement level vs. LH pitchers even with stellar defense, making him a platoon player diminishing the overall value of his defense because he's not on the field.  As a righty, his bat would be passable enough vs. LH pitching to where you can keep him on the field full time, maximizing the value from his defense.  And if you're getting this guy, you want him for his defense.

Of course, being a switch hitter gives you the best of both worlds, the platoon advantage over 3/4 of pitchers plus the ability to always stay on the field.

below replacement level?  gtfo

Well, thank you for letting me know exactly where the bidding is on these two guys and allowing me to completely overhaul my strategy in the hopes of landing one of them!

Sometimes you need to know the world to make a decision like this.  This is on the edge and may be one of those times.  If your team will be needing SS defense by the time this guy would be ready for the bigs, and the world has a shortage of such players....you may need to pay to get him now.  From what I see of his projecteds, providing he meets them, he would be a great bench/rest guy to insert for his defense.  If not other options for SS defense are presenting themselves in his BL time slot, he may play full time.  Only you can make that call.

What I can say is I don't like his batting eye or speed.  His contact may make up for this a little, but usually a high contact with little speed just equates into outs or double plays.  His OBP will be not good.  His defense is fine.

Posted by soursurfer on 11/23/2011 10:04:00 AM (view original):
Well, thank you for letting me know exactly where the bidding is on these two guys and allowing me to completely overhaul my strategy in the hopes of landing one of them!

Im okay with you out bidding me :)

I still believe too many people are underestimating the value of his defense. Look at it this way, if he gets close to projections he should look something like .675 OPS over 650 PA with an avg of about 15 net plus plays/minus plays + errors. That should result in about 65 RC and should prevent about 10 runs scored for a net "contribution" of 75 runs.

Compare that to S5 silver slugging SS Ronnie Eaton, with a glittery .875 OPS over 664 PA. (and a justifiable 5yr $39M contract). Ronnie had a whopping 104RC last season - fantastic for a SS. But, due to his inferior defense, he had a net negative -31 poor plays + errors vs. plus plays. That probably cost his team about 20 runs for a net contribution of 84.

Ronnie outperformed my forecast for your IFA by 9 runs, which should translate into 1 extra win per season - but then you need to factor in the contract. Instead of trying to find a SS like Ronnie in FA (who would certainly go for more than $8M/yr), you could have your IFA for $10, your IFA RP for $10M, and have another $18M to spend elsewhere. That combo should easily overcome the difference in SS production.

Posted by dwoolery on 11/23/2011 2:12:00 PM (view original):
I still believe too many people are underestimating the value of his defense. Look at it this way, if he gets close to projections he should look something like .675 OPS over 650 PA with an avg of about 15 net plus plays/minus plays + errors. That should result in about 65 RC and should prevent about 10 runs scored for a net "contribution" of 75 runs.

Compare that to S5 silver slugging SS Ronnie Eaton, with a glittery .875 OPS over 664 PA. (and a justifiable 5yr $39M contract). Ronnie had a whopping 104RC last season - fantastic for a SS. But, due to his inferior defense, he had a net negative -31 poor plays + errors vs. plus plays. That probably cost his team about 20 runs for a net contribution of 84.

Ronnie outperformed my forecast for your IFA by 9 runs, which should translate into 1 extra win per season - but then you need to factor in the contract. Instead of trying to find a SS like Ronnie in FA (who would certainly go for more than $8M/yr), you could have your IFA for $10, your IFA RP for $10M, and have another $18M to spend elsewhere. That combo should easily overcome the difference in SS production.

I love the logic, but I want justification on the assumptions.  Where is your assumption .67 runs per play that should have been made coming from?  Also, you are assuming he hits projects whereas Eaton's abilities are known.  Third, are you assuming a base salary for the IFA's?  Their salaries as ML matter too.  Fourth, you are comparing him to a player playing out of position.  if Eaton plays 3rd base his net contribution is probably still 104 runs in which case he is better 3 wins the superior player.  Still I like this logic a lot and its completely right way of looking at it.  I still maintain a SS with a net of 75 runs created is pretty fungible. 

BTW where is your formula for RC coming from?  Are you using ((h+bb)XTB)/(AB+BB)?

1) I assume over the course of the season errors and minus plays are worth the same and that they are all worth +/- .67 runs. I'm sure my research was crude by a statisticians standards, but I believe it's good enough for govt work. I doubt you'll find anyone who would place the value less than .5 or more than .75.
2) I am assuming the IFA's rating's, in a neutral park, will translate to approx .675 OPS - compare players with similar ratings and I think you'll find that's pretty close. If you then look at lots of samples of .675 OPS (independent of SB) you'll find the RC's usually come pretty close to PA's.
3) I simply pulled the IFA salary estimates from will's estimates - they seemed reasonable in my own experience. As for ML experience, assuming first promotion after 20 days, the first 4 yrs should cost about $1.4M - so maybe I rounded a bit aggressively - call it $11M-$12M each between signing bonus and first 4 yrs of ML salary.
4) I compared him to Eaton. I do not characterize him as playing "out of position", he's below avg defensively but worth the trade off because of his bat. There are scads of SS's with his below avg defense and a much worse bat. I only grabbed him because he won Silver Slugger in that league and thought he pretty well made my point that you can't just wave a hand and say the guy plays good defense or not - you have to make some attempt to quantify the trade off. I completely understand Eaton's owner playing him at SS, but if it were me, I would compare "net contribution" of Eaton at SS and my best 3B choice to Eaton at 3B and my best SS choice. The answer might not be obvious.

Fungible - I don't know what your leagues look like, but in my experience, that number for a full time SS is uncommon.
RC - I simply pull it from stats pages - look under the Extended option