How low is too low of control? Topic

nelsonba25
Posts: 679 (0)
Hall of Famer
16 15 3 357 230
Prospect
Basically, how good will this guy be in the ML if he hits his projections? He's an IFA FA right now, these are his current attributes and his projections I see and I have a 20 million IFA budget.

Event                   ST CT LH RH VE GB P1 P2 P3 P4 P5
Current -                 71 35 61 63 75 71 69 58 54 33 0
Projected -                 93 51 84 88 88 83 84 70 76 46 0
12/8/2011 10:40 PM
jonas1102
Posts: 1016 (0)
Hall of Famer
35 1 24 43 11
Rookie
If he hits those numbers, he should be a good starter.
12/8/2011 10:46 PM
tecwrg
Posts: 18997 (0)
Hall of Famer
4 1 166 32 129
Prospect
He'll be fine. 

He'll probably allow between 4 and 4.5 BB/9, but that would be more than offset by the hits he's not giving up due to his splits in the 80's.  Also, a very good GB rating lessens the chances to see "walk, walk, three-run bomb".
12/8/2011 10:49 PM
nauds3000
Posts: 1284 (0)
Hall of Famer
11 63 33
Prospect
If he reaches his projections he will have +10 splits than the guys you posted. His splits, velocity, GB/FB and pitches make up for his control.
12/8/2011 10:50 PM
silentpadna
Posts: 980 (0)
Hall of Famer
148
Prospect
How old is he?  (That makes a difference as to whether the projections are reasonable).  But as to the general question, I'd go after him.  His control will make his bad outings a little worse, skewing your numbers a bit.  If you watch individual outings, you'll probably see as many really good ones as an ace will give you because of those splits.  You'll just have to be aware of the context behind your numbers as you watch him.  If you were to look at a distribution of his outings, my bet is you'd see more variation, but I'd consider this guy very valuable.  That control number may just keep his price reasonable too.
12/9/2011 7:50 AM (edited)
MikeT23
Posts: 58012 (0)
Hall of Famer
87 1 47 1 189
Prospect
Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Angel Owen

Splits nowhere near what your guy is projected to be.
12/9/2011 7:49 AM
travisg
Posts: 2146 (0)
Hall of Famer
11 268
Prospect
Jose Martin's control ended up being a bit better than your guy, but they've got some similarities. But the lesson is, different types of pitchers can be successful if you know what to look for. You don't need the obvious studs to compete.
12/9/2011 8:12 AM
tecwrg
Posts: 18997 (0)
Hall of Famer
4 1 166 32 129
Prospect

If my pitcher is going to allow a batter to reach base, I'd prefer a walk than a base hit.  Runners already on base don't go from first to third, or score from second, on walks.  The biggest downside of allowing a walk as opposed to a hit is that it tends to eat into the pitch count a little more.

12/9/2011 8:23 AM
nelsonba25
Posts: 679 (0)
Hall of Famer
16 15 3 357 230
Prospect
Posted by silentpadna on 12/9/2011 7:50:00 AM (view original):
How old is he?  (That makes a difference as to whether the projections are reasonable).  But as to the general question, I'd go after him.  His control will make his bad outings a little worse, skewing your numbers a bit.  If you watch individual outings, you'll probably see as many really good ones as an ace will give you because of those splits.  You'll just have to be aware of the context behind your numbers as you watch him.  If you were to look at a distribution of his outings, my bet is you'd see more variation, but I'd consider this guy very valuable.  That control number may just keep his price reasonable too.
He's 18...and the control is not keeping his price reasonable so far.
12/9/2011 8:57 AM
prezuiwf
Posts: 315 (0)
All Star
15 3 27
Prospect
To answer the question in the title, for me I don't go below 70 and would only go below 60 if they guy had unbelievable splits and pitches. This guy is somewhat on the borderline and I'd probably take him IF he hit those projections, but overall I'd prefer a guy with control 10-20 points higher even if his splits took a 10 point hit. But I know this is a very contentious subject.
12/9/2011 9:55 AM
soursurfer
Posts: 371 (0)
Hall of Famer
72
Prospect
I've had successful starters with control in the 40s, so long as all the other numbers are there.
12/9/2011 10:10 AM
silentpadna
Posts: 980 (0)
Hall of Famer
148
Prospect
Posted by nelsonba25 on 12/9/2011 8:57:00 AM (view original):
Posted by silentpadna on 12/9/2011 7:50:00 AM (view original):
How old is he?  (That makes a difference as to whether the projections are reasonable).  But as to the general question, I'd go after him.  His control will make his bad outings a little worse, skewing your numbers a bit.  If you watch individual outings, you'll probably see as many really good ones as an ace will give you because of those splits.  You'll just have to be aware of the context behind your numbers as you watch him.  If you were to look at a distribution of his outings, my bet is you'd see more variation, but I'd consider this guy very valuable.  That control number may just keep his price reasonable too.
He's 18...and the control is not keeping his price reasonable so far.
He may not be "reasonable" in your IFA bid, but the control will hold back his OV rating and your contract prices should be less down the road...

IFA prices depend on too many other factors (# of tankers, time in the season, # of quality IFA's so far, quality of Amateur Draft, world strengths/weaknesses, etc.).  Since cash has a single season shelf-life, IFA bids don't always make intuitive sense.
12/9/2011 10:13 AM
jvford
Posts: 1102 (0)
Hall of Famer
1 15 71
Prospect
www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx

Solid starter for his career with splits no where near where your guy will end up.
12/9/2011 11:22 AM
How low is too low of control? Topic
△Top△Bottom

Search Criteria

Terms of Use Customer Support Privacy Statement

© 1999-2026 WhatIfSports.com, Inc. All rights reserved. WhatIfSports is a trademark of WhatIfSports.com, Inc. SimLeague, SimMatchup and iSimNow are trademarks or registered trademarks of Electronic Arts, Inc. Used under license. The names of actual companies and products mentioned herein may be the trademarks of their respective owners.