21/22yr old IFA development Topic

indiansrck27
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I have Pedro Izturis last seasons top IFA signing. I signed him at 21, he is 22. How much development can i expect from him? Dont have alot of experience with IFA who were not 18 signing. He barely improved over the course of the season as well as the offseason. Dont have the exact amounts but it was minimal. Should I expect him to sit pretty much where he is at with maybe a 1 or 2 point increase? Not that I would mind, im happy with his ratings as is. But of course I would love his DUR to go up and his splits.

Here are his projections with 18M ADV:
General & Fielding Ratings
Event Season Height Weight OV RA GL AS AA PC DU HE SP PA TP MK
Current - 6-1 200 83 62 46 50 52 11 85 64 78 47 1 77
Projected - 6-1 204 91 67 52 55 59 16 93 67 78 59 1 87
Spring Training 22 6-1 200 83 62 46 50 52 11 85 64 78 47 1 77
Batting & Pitching Ratings
Event Season CN PW LH RH BE BR BU PP ST CT LH RH VE GB P1 P2 P3 P4 P5
Current - 95 74 67 79 76 66 52 28 25 8 14 21 9 36 40 0 0 0 0
Projected - 100 74 78 85 80 70 58 29 25 12 19 21 9 41 43 0 0 0 0
Spring Training 22 95 74 67 79 76 66 52 28 25 8 14 21 9 36 40 0 0 0 0
12/22/2011 3:16 PM
caesari
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Can I just say something? 18M ADV is a terrible waste of assets
12/22/2011 4:09 PM
AlCheez
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IFAs that old, for the most part, are what they are when you sign them.

12/22/2011 4:12 PM
shobob
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Here's an IFA I signed at age 22.  He developed a decent amount after signing, although not much in dur/sta. Willie Pineda.  It seems like you can expect a 1-3 ratings increase for the skill ratings, if Pineda is typical.

Edit:  Oops, just looked at him again, and I notice that his control is 7 points better than the first ratings you see (I assume which are 1-2 points better than what he had upon signing).  Pineda seems to refute the notion that 22 yr old IFAs don't develop.

12/22/2011 4:18 PM (edited)
dedelman
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Most IFAs, including, probably, Izturis, are within a couple of points of where they're headed when they're 21-22.  But there will be occasional exceptions, like Piñeda.
12/22/2011 6:43 PM
maxdeardorff
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Nice eñe, dedelman.
12/23/2011 5:56 AM
torrone
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Many players, IFA or not, will show some improvement until 27 yrs old, and some add a few points here and there into their 30's. It's more a product of MK than the fact that he is an IFA. The guy is only 22. Why should he be topped out at 22?
12/23/2011 7:11 AM
torrone
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I signed this IFA during season 19. We are heading into season 21. I paid $16.5M.

<a style="color:black;" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=4136793" target="_blank">Deivi Cela</a>

In one year, he has made significant progress in CNTRL(+6), vL(+7), vR(+7), P1(+4), and decent progress in most other ratings. I don't know if he is an exception or not, but I see him still having a long way to go before he tops out. I don't see any reason why his progress ladder would be any different than a drafted player of the same age. That is, significant progress in his first 3 seasons, then slowing to a point or 2 here and there , possibly into his 30's. Of course, a higher MK would help.
Personally, I look to sign one significant IFA a year. It's like getting a top draft pick. This is especially important for teams that finished high last season and don't have a draft pick until the upper 20's or higher. I also agree with signing one early if possible. Not only do you not know if another will come along, but he will get a larger portion of the season to develop if signed early rather than late.
12/23/2011 7:29 AM
nitehawk98
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Posted by caesari on 12/22/2011 4:09:00 PM (view original):
Can I just say something? 18M ADV is a terrible waste of assets
Why?
12/23/2011 8:23 AM
AlCheez
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Posted by torrone on 12/23/2011 7:29:00 AM (view original):
I signed this IFA during season 19. We are heading into season 21. I paid $16.5M.

<a style="color:black;" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=4136793" target="_blank">Deivi Cela</a>

In one year, he has made significant progress in CNTRL(+6), vL(+7), vR(+7), P1(+4), and decent progress in most other ratings. I don't know if he is an exception or not, but I see him still having a long way to go before he tops out. I don't see any reason why his progress ladder would be any different than a drafted player of the same age. That is, significant progress in his first 3 seasons, then slowing to a point or 2 here and there , possibly into his 30's. Of course, a higher MK would help.
Personally, I look to sign one significant IFA a year. It's like getting a top draft pick. This is especially important for teams that finished high last season and don't have a draft pick until the upper 20's or higher. I also agree with signing one early if possible. Not only do you not know if another will come along, but he will get a larger portion of the season to develop if signed early rather than late.

I'm not arguing that IFAs SHOULD be different than drafted players, but older ones largely are.  If you make a habit of signing 21/22 year old IFAs and expecting them to become significantly better than when you signed them, you're setting yourself up for disappointment.  A guy you signed at 19 like this one will have significant development overall, but he'll probably tail off a bit more quickly than you'd expected - he's got some more growth in him, but I doubt that he's got a "long way" to go.

Here's a guy I signed at 22 (and I did so expecting what I got in terms of lack of development, he was just sitting around at the end of the season and I had extra prospect money): http://www.wisjournal.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=3945203   

12/23/2011 8:40 AM
gjello10
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Jimmie Reynoso

Signed as 21-year-old S14.  As you can see, despite Makeup of 3, his splits, Durability, and patience developed pretty well, while everything else was just a point here, a point there.

The development pattern is a little strange, compared to, say, a draftee at age 21.  For example, his vsL split developed 0 points in his half-season after signing, then just 2 points in his first full season.  But it developed an additional 5 points in subsequent seasons.

And despite fairly minimal progression from S15-S16, several categories did not finish developing until Spring Training S19 (Dur, Pat, vsR).

Also, the normal pattern of development for batting/fielding ratings seems to be turned on its head here.  Usually, I expect batting ratings to stop developing completely while defensive ratings are still progressing a point here, a point there for another season or 2.  This tends to be true for both drafted and 18-year-old IFA players.  But you can see that Reynoso's defensive improvements are smaller, and weighted earlier into his career, than his batting improvements.

So I think there won't be a ton of development from your guy, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him continue to pick up a point here, a point there for several seasons to come.     
12/23/2011 2:08 PM
nauds3000
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Why are you guys following age as a determination of whether or not a prospect will develop? I follow projections, not what a players age is
12/24/2011 2:09 AM
topoftheworl
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Development slows as the player gets closer to 27.
12/24/2011 2:39 AM
nauds3000
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right, which with a 21/22 yr old IFA 27 is either year 5 or year 6.
12/24/2011 3:21 AM
topoftheworl
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Sure, but it's slowed to a crawl by 24, just less development cycles, especially the high octane ones.
12/24/2011 4:03 AM
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