I'm in my 2nd year with a team that was coming off a 90 loss season and that had little to no minor league talent and a few really bad contracts to aging and rapidly declining pitchers. Had 82 wins last season, but the team is pretty awful this year. I figured this is how bad the team would be last season, but it looks like the first two years are going the opposite of how I expected. The pitching staff on my ML team is horrendous, and the fact that I play in a major hitter's park makes it even worse. I'm patiently waiting on this season to end so I can make a complete overhaul of the pitching. I have a few good pitching prospects. One of whom will be ready next season and a couple more who are at AA and will be another couple seasons. So maybe help is on the way, but right now, it's ugly.

The guy below, I promoted to ML last season basically out of desperation. And he was doing well at AAA, so I just figured why not.

http://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=2606414

His ratings are that of someone who should get ripped apart on a regular basis. 65 stamina and 15 durability? He shouldn't be a starter. Long guy at best. Last season, I mainly used him as a Long reliever, and had him make spot starts when needed. And he was really good. At least really good compared to the rest of the pitching staff. And this season, with all the low durability guys I have, I am often forced into a 6 man rotation. And Bryant has become a regular starter, granted on a limited pitch count. But somehow, even with 65 stamina and 15 durability, this guy has a hair under 60 innings and we are 60 games into the season. That's more than 150 innings he'd have by the end of the season. And in his time, he is kicking ***.

And that's what I need help figuring out. How is this guy successful? And again, I must reiterate that I play in a hitter's heaven. And yet his home ERA is even lower than his road ERA. I'm baffled that this guy is the ace of my pitching staff, as sad as that is.

Small sample size.  He'll regress to the mean shortly.  Expect some stinkers from him in the future.

Posted by shobob on 2/3/2012 10:24:00 PM (view original):
Small sample size.  He'll regress to the mean shortly.  Expect some stinkers from him in the future.

You are probably right, but his string of success has already lasted longer than I thought it would. He was pretty bad in the couple seasons just before I took over, and then all of a sudden he turned into someone I can oddly depend on to give me quality innings. And there have not been very many quality innings from my pitchers.

"statistical aberration"  enjoy it while it lasts!

I say all this because I can't see much in his ratings to make me think that he'll do well, especially in a hitter's park.  He has good control, a good first pitch (and three other usable ones), and has a decent gb/fb rating.  But his low splits and lack of velocity should ensure that he's a fringe MLer in the end.  A career mopup guy IMO.

Posted by shobob on 2/3/2012 11:17:00 PM (view original):
I say all this because I can't see much in his ratings to make me think that he'll do well, especially in a hitter's park.  He has good control, a good first pitch (and three other usable ones), and has a decent gb/fb rating.  But his low splits and lack of velocity should ensure that he's a fringe MLer in the end.  A career mopup guy IMO.

Well luckily I don't think he will be on my team beyond this season. He may be doing great right now, but when I say I am going to overhaul the pitching staff, I mean it. More than half of the pitchers on my ML roster will not be back with my team next season.

 Since he has very good control, a good GB/FB ratio and a good 1st pitch and not much of a drop off for his 3rd and 4th pitch he is capable of stringing some good innings together but what he is doing now won't last or be the norm.

Do you have a good defense behind him, especially in the infield? Because with his control, and being a groundball pitcher it's not too surprising that he is doing alright if you have a solid D behind him.

Posted by dodgersgale on 2/4/2012 4:48:00 PM (view original):
Do you have a good defense behind him, especially in the infield? Because with his control, and being a groundball pitcher it's not too surprising that he is doing alright if you have a solid D behind him.

My infield is a little bit of a merry go round. But no, I wouldn't call it that strong defensively. However, I do have a solid fielding coach, with a 91 fielding rating. As of my current lineup, this is my infield.

1B: http://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=2408892
2B: http://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=3815209
3B: http://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=3374396
SS: http://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=2971754

That last one is playing a little out of position. He is better suited for 3B, but being an NL team, I sometimes have to shift a couple players in order to get them in the lineup. I also have two other middle infielders who rotate in periodically. But both are on the bench for now because they got into slumps and the others have done better.

2B: http://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=3374454
SS: http://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=3374348

^ that last one is pretty strong defensively, and I'd play him every game if I had an AL team. But he bumps another player who is weak defensively that I need in the lineup.

All the while, Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Erubiel Javier is f---king batting practice.   Makes all the sense in the world.

Same kind of issue. Too few IP to be accurate. if left to pitch 200 innings he would put up similar numbers to season 19.

He doesn't walk anybody, he throws ground balls, and he has a great 1st pitch...Oh and a high makeup (which I think leads to over-performing.

His vR will catch up to him, but he's getting by because of some decent numbers elsewhere.

He pitched my last game and went 6 innings with 2 ER allowed. Another solid performance. He has gone exactly 6 innings in four of the last five, with the other being 6.1 innings. And I try to limit him to about 80 pitches, and that is what he has averaged during these last five games. And in that span, he has averaged about 13 pitches per inning. Over a five game stretch, I'd say that's being pretty effective.

Sure is now lets see if he can do it for 33 starts in a row. He is not a terrible pitcher. His splits are a bit average but they are not terrible. He is also not an ace which is what he is preforming like now because his splits are average and not great.

Reminds me of a slightly worse version of http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=2366805

He's not going to hurt himself thru walks and homers.  hammond has had some dominant stretchs, as well as some real stinkers.  the splits scare off a lot of teams, but guys like that can be had cheaper than what they'll produce.  Use them as a long reliever, spot starter and you'll get pretty good value while they're cheap.