Which on for Cy Young Topic

oriolemagic
Posts: 253 (0)
Hall of Famer
1 10 93 95
Prospect
I think you are misunderstanding Pitcher Runs.  The 81 innings are not at replacement level.  Thats the point.  They are dead even with those 81 innings factored in.  Its not that they are dead even at 200 innings and the extra 81 are just throw-ins.  You keep coming back to the 4.50 era for the extra 81 innings, which is just blatently wrong.  Those 81 innings were at a much higher level then you are giving credit for, therefore you can not just replace them easily or for cheap.  Why do you think that Ducey becomes a league average pitcher after he hits 200 innings?  He has the same stuff for the last 81 innings that he had for the first 200 innings he pitched.  The point was, that including the innings into consideration the runs were about the same from both pitchers.  Given that factor, I will take the one who gives me more innings.
2/21/2012 8:02 AM
MikeT23
Posts: 58012 (0)
Hall of Famer
87 1 47 1 189
Prospect
Posted by jvford on 2/20/2012 9:25:00 PM (view original):
Posted by oriolemagic on 2/20/2012 7:48:00 PM (view original):
Pitcher runs is simply a matter of determining the a pitchers ability above a replacement pitcher.  It takes the league average era and divides it by 9 to get a average runs allowed per inning.  Then subtract out the actual runs the pitcher gave up.  That is your base runs better then the league average, and multiply it by the number of innings a pitcher has thrown.  That gives you a correlation between the pitchers runs they gave up vs. the league average spread out over the innings they pitched.  It does count innings so you could say your counting the innings twice, but the point in showing this is that on runs and innings alone they are fractions apart.  Ducey wins in FIP by a long margin.  Start looking at all the stats and Ducey is the overall winner.  And for the person who wants W-L record, although I dont believe it means anything in this argument..

Ducey 25-8
Sheldon 20-3
You don't seem to understand pitching runs. What your calculations show is that Sheldon plus 81 innings of replacement value is the same as Ducey. So, as long as you can find a SuB type to give you 81 innings at a little better than replacement value, Sheldon is clearly better.

And as others have said, forget FIP unless you have developed a modification for the fact that hitters and pitchers have more control over BABIP than in real life.
This is why I didn't understand his point.     Seems to me that pitching runs is a heavy argument in Sheldon's favor yet he was using it to argue Ducey.    Made no sense to me.
2/21/2012 8:25 AM
MikeT23
Posts: 58012 (0)
Hall of Famer
87 1 47 1 189
Prospect
Crap.  I understand PR as JVF does.   Anyone else know which is right?
2/21/2012 8:27 AM
oriolemagic
Posts: 253 (0)
Hall of Famer
1 10 93 95
Prospect
Pitcher Runs is meant to be "a measure of the total amount of runs a pitcher saves compared to the league average".  They were dead on-even. I can understand how you would think that subtracting out the extra 81 innings gives Sheldon a huge advantage, but what you arent doing is subtracting out the runs that Ducey gave up during those 81 innings.  The fact of the matter is, he wasnt a "average pitcher" for 81 innings, he was the same pitcher for the first 200 that he was for the last 81.
2/21/2012 8:49 AM
MikeT23
Posts: 58012 (0)
Hall of Famer
87 1 47 1 189
Prospect
OK, I'll try to explain what I think without sounding like a moron in case I'm wrong.

Based on 286 innings from an average pitcher, Ducey saved 45.3 runs.
Based on 205 innings from an average pitcher, Sheldon saved 45.7 runs.

So, if an average pitcher had thrown those 81 innings, there's no difference.    Just ballparking but, if Ducey had pitched 205 innings, he'd have saved about 32-33 runs over the average pitcher.    That's significantly less than Sheldon.  Which is why I think PR heavily favors Sheldon as the more effective pitcher.
2/21/2012 9:15 AM (edited)
kcden
Posts: 1635 (0)
Hall of Famer
1 58 368 177
Prospect
Looking it up and not reading too deeply, this was the first paragraph about PRC that I noticed...

"2. It tells you what a pitcher’s absolute value was. No more messing around with replacement levels or whatnot; Pitching Runs Created are just like Runs Created for hitters. Yeah, you can put in a replacement level if you’d like, but there isn’t really a need to."

If that is true, you are misunderstanding PRC, oriole.  It would say that in 205 Innings, Sheldon saved more runs than Ducey did in 286 innings, as it is an absolute value and not a rate... if you wanted to correlate it to RC/27, which would seem appropriate, you would turn it into PRC/9IP, and Sheldon would come out to ~2.01 with Ducey at ~1.42, assuming you calculated their PRC correctly (I don't know the formula).
2/21/2012 9:12 AM
kcden
Posts: 1635 (0)
Hall of Famer
1 58 368 177
Prospect
Also, based on the examples used in what I'm reading (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/pitching-runs-created/) those PRC for Sheldon & Ducey would seem incredibly low, compared to the examples given in the article.
2/21/2012 9:14 AM
MikeT23
Posts: 58012 (0)
Hall of Famer
87 1 47 1 189
Prospect
Now, if I'm reading KCD right, he's saying Ducey is about 70% of the pitcher.   That falls right in line with the 12-13 run differential I'm seeing. 
2/21/2012 9:23 AM
oriolemagic
Posts: 253 (0)
Hall of Famer
1 10 93 95
Prospect
You guys are looking at two different stats.  Pitching Runs and Pitching Runs Created are different.
2/21/2012 9:48 AM
MikeT23
Posts: 58012 (0)
Hall of Famer
87 1 47 1 189
Prospect
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/21/2012 9:15:00 AM (view original):
OK, I'll try to explain what I think without sounding like a moron in case I'm wrong.

Based on 286 innings from an average pitcher, Ducey saved 45.3 runs.
Based on 205 innings from an average pitcher, Sheldon saved 45.7 runs.

So, if an average pitcher had thrown those 81 innings, there's no difference.    Just ballparking but, if Ducey had pitched 205 innings, he'd have saved about 32-33 runs over the average pitcher.    That's significantly less than Sheldon.  Which is why I think PR heavily favors Sheldon as the more effective pitcher.
Tell me where I'm wrong with this.
2/21/2012 9:51 AM
kcden
Posts: 1635 (0)
Hall of Famer
1 58 368 177
Prospect
Ok, I found the definition of Pitcher Runs (League Average ERA - Player ERA) * Innings/9)... it still says that Sheldon saved more runs against the league average in 205 innings than Ducey did in 286 innings.
2/21/2012 10:04 AM
oriolemagic
Posts: 253 (0)
Hall of Famer
1 10 93 95
Prospect
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/21/2012 9:51:00 AM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 2/21/2012 9:15:00 AM (view original):
OK, I'll try to explain what I think without sounding like a moron in case I'm wrong.

Based on 286 innings from an average pitcher, Ducey saved 45.3 runs.
Based on 205 innings from an average pitcher, Sheldon saved 45.7 runs.

So, if an average pitcher had thrown those 81 innings, there's no difference.    Just ballparking but, if Ducey had pitched 205 innings, he'd have saved about 32-33 runs over the average pitcher.    That's significantly less than Sheldon.  Which is why I think PR heavily favors Sheldon as the more effective pitcher.
Tell me where I'm wrong with this.
I did.. you were looking at the wrong stat.  In Pticher runs it is already defined as being Above the league average.  I see what you are trying to do, its just not feasible to look at thing in isolation.  If you want to say he would have had 33 in 200 innings (which I am not sure is true..) then fine, that leaves 12 addtional runs more then an average pitcher saved over 81 innings.  That in itself proves that you cant just have a replacement pitcher for those additional 81 innings.
2/21/2012 10:08 AM
oriolemagic
Posts: 253 (0)
Hall of Famer
1 10 93 95
Prospect
Posted by kcden on 2/21/2012 10:04:00 AM (view original):
Ok, I found the definition of Pitcher Runs (League Average ERA - Player ERA) * Innings/9)... it still says that Sheldon saved more runs against the league average in 205 innings than Ducey did in 286 innings.
Thats not actually what its saying.  Its normalizing for innings pitched and putting them a fractional run different.
2/21/2012 10:09 AM
kcden
Posts: 1635 (0)
Hall of Famer
1 58 368 177
Prospect
It is exactly what it is saying; Sheldon saved 412.05 Runs over the league average in 205 innings and Ducey saved 408.98 Runs over the league average in 286 innings... I would assume if you are a stat-geek baseball fan, that would be pretty clear; that formula is very simple and straightforward.
2/21/2012 10:11 AM
MikeT23
Posts: 58012 (0)
Hall of Famer
87 1 47 1 189
Prospect

So Ducey saved 45 runs in 286 innings over league average and Sheldon saved 45 runs in 205 inning over league average.

Why couldn't a league average pitcher throw those other 81 innings and the value be the same?

2/21/2012 10:17 AM
◂ Prev 1...6|7|8|9|10...24 Next ▸
Which on for Cy Young Topic
△Top△Bottom

Search Criteria

Terms of Use Customer Support Privacy Statement

© 1999-2026 WhatIfSports.com, Inc. All rights reserved. WhatIfSports is a trademark of WhatIfSports.com, Inc. SimLeague, SimMatchup and iSimNow are trademarks or registered trademarks of Electronic Arts, Inc. Used under license. The names of actual companies and products mentioned herein may be the trademarks of their respective owners.