Posted by oriolemagic on 2/21/2012 10:09:00 AM (view original):

Posted by kcden on 2/21/2012 10:04:00 AM (view original):
Ok, I found the definition of Pitcher Runs (League Average ERA - Player ERA) * Innings/9)... it still says that Sheldon saved more runs against the league average in 205 innings than Ducey did in 286 innings.

Thats not actually what its saying.  Its normalizing for innings pitched and putting them a fractional run different.

Posted by gjello10 on 2/20/2012 7:24:00 PM (view original):

Posted by JFerg on 2/20/2012 2:48:00 PM (view original):
The formula I want to use is WAR, and you are right it is a big time formula.  Which is a good thing cause it's trying to account for everything it possibly can to evaluate a person on one number, we can argue all day.  You have to read some to understand where I'm coming from, I read what you read.  I use to love RBI's and Runs, and Batting Average and counting stats, but in the end it's not the best way to evaluate a player. 

JFerg, you and I will agree all day long about the value of advanced metrics in evaluating real life players. 

But you're applying it to HBD in a way they shouldn't be applied.  I don't think this point has been driven home fully.  But we all know that splits are very important.  And, having not done a detailed enoungh survey of stats to say that I'm 100% sure, I am nonetheless pretty certain that in HBD pitchers and hitters have far more control over BABIP than they do in real life, and that splits are the mechanism.  For this reason, I think the real-life logic of FIP/xFIP fails to qualify here. 

Posted by kcden on 2/21/2012 10:11:00 AM (view original):
It is exactly what it is saying; Sheldon saved 412.05 Runs over the league average in 205 innings and Ducey saved 408.98 Runs over the league average in 286 innings... I would assume if you are a stat-geek baseball fan, that would be pretty clear; that formula is very simple and straightforward.

Posted by oriolemagic on 2/21/2012 10:50:00 AM (view original):
No thats not what its saying.  It's saying that Ducey was worth 45.44 Runs Saved and Sheldon was 45.7.  A small difference but important difference.  If you take Ducey down to 200 innings you change the entire formula and you cant add a replacement pitcher in to make up the difference.

Posted by oriolemagic on 2/21/2012 10:50:00 AM (view original):
No thats not what its saying.  It's saying that Ducey was worth 45.44 Runs Saved and Sheldon was 45.7.  A small difference but important difference.  If you take Ducey down to 200 innings you change the entire formula and you cant add a replacement pitcher in to make up the difference.

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/21/2012 9:15:00 AM (view original):
OK, I'll try to explain what I think without sounding like a moron in case I'm wrong.

Based on 286 innings from an average pitcher, Ducey saved 45.3 runs.
Based on 205 innings from an average pitcher, Sheldon saved 45.7 runs.

So, if an average pitcher had thrown those 81 innings, there's no difference.    Just ballparking but, if Ducey had pitched 205 innings, he'd have saved about 32-33 runs over the average pitcher.    That's significantly less than Sheldon.  Which is why I think PR heavily favors Sheldon as the more effective pitcher.

Also, I don't know how it would change the evaluation of FIP, but I think it is incredibly meaningful within WIS (if you are going to use FIP) the order in which outcomes are determined.  IIRC, it goes:  Is it a hit?  Yes> Was the hit taken away by a good/great play, Was the hit a Single/Double/Triple/HR, Was Double/Triple/HR reduced to something less by a great play, etc... or something like that.
I may be thinking of this incorrectly, but the fact that the determination of "Hit" is made before "HR" makes an HR less damning to a pitcher's production... i.e. it is quite possible that a pitcher that gives up a lot of HR can "always" have so few runners on base that an ERA/WHIP like Sheldon's with a high HR rate makes sense, and is not just luck.

Posted by kcden on 2/21/2012 11:12:00 AM (view original):
Alright, just read the definition of "FIP"... how the hell is an HR the only type of hit that a pitcher is responsible for? Similarly, how does a pitcher take no responsibility for any out other than a K?


If FIP is all you want to take into account when evaluating a pitcher, you are a ******* retard.

"(HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number

Posted by JFerg on 2/21/2012 11:24:00 AM (view original):

Posted by kcden on 2/21/2012 11:12:00 AM (view original):
Alright, just read the definition of "FIP"... how the hell is an HR the only type of hit that a pitcher is responsible for? Similarly, how does a pitcher take no responsibility for any out other than a K?


If FIP is all you want to take into account when evaluating a pitcher, you are a ******* retard.

"(HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number

Read more before name calling.  That was hurtful.