As I said earlier, this became "I know stats better than you and, therefore, I know which ones are more important" than an actual Cy Young debate.

Also, as I mentioned earlier and was conveniently ignored, I'm sure NONE of these people build their HBD while concentrating solely on Control, Velocity and GB/FB even though those EXACT pitchers would have the best FIP.

Posted by gjello10 on 2/21/2012 10:30:00 PM (view original):

Posted by JFerg on 2/21/2012 9:15:00 PM (view original):

Posted by jvford on 2/21/2012 8:54:00 PM (view original):
Yep

But my post and your post are saying the same thing.  FIP is predictive of a pitcher's ERA the following season.  xFIP was slightly lower than FIP in the test that I linked. tERA was slightly higher, SIERRA was slightly lower.  However, they were all just about equal.  What is great about FIP is it's simplicity.

Bobzilla

Why are you involved in this discussion? You don't play HBD, right? Advanced Metrics are not applicable here, because the sim runs differently than real life in hundreds of little ways, and we have no Advanced Metrics developed and tested for HBD.

I'm friends with JFerg and oriolemagic.  They know I'm really into sabermetrics and baseball analysis and they asked my opinion and then showed me this thread.  Furthermore, my reasoning for thinking Ducey was slightly more valuable has nothing to do with any advanced metrics.

Bobzilla

Posted by mchalesarmy on 2/21/2012 10:36:00 PM (view original):
But why use a "predictive" stat to compare a season that is already complete? They are useless to evaluate what ACTUALLY OCCURRED. Those are the stats that matter in award voting.

That is the problem. What the "advanced stats" show ME, is that Ducey had the season of his career, while Sheldon had a slightly "down" year. 

I vote for Ducey, due to his park and I think if he doesn't win it this year he may never win it at all. I am not the norm though. Most owners who bother to vote, look at straight line stats. I reward Ducey for having his career year.

I would vote for Ducey too, and the basis for that had nothing to do with predictive stats.

Bobzilla

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/21/2012 10:41:00 PM (view original):
As I said earlier, this became "I know stats better than you and, therefore, I know which ones are more important" than an actual Cy Young debate.

Also, as I mentioned earlier and was conveniently ignored, I'm sure NONE of these people build their HBD while concentrating solely on Control, Velocity and GB/FB even though those EXACT pitchers would have the best FIP.

THIS x10000000

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/21/2012 10:41:00 PM (view original):
As I said earlier, this became "I know stats better than you and, therefore, I know which ones are more important" than an actual Cy Young debate.

Also, as I mentioned earlier and was conveniently ignored, I'm sure NONE of these people build their HBD while concentrating solely on Control, Velocity and GB/FB even though those EXACT pitchers would have the best FIP.

How do you have a Cy Young debate without using numbers?  

Bobzilla

Posted by JFerg on 2/21/2012 10:53:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/21/2012 10:41:00 PM (view original):
As I said earlier, this became "I know stats better than you and, therefore, I know which ones are more important" than an actual Cy Young debate.

Also, as I mentioned earlier and was conveniently ignored, I'm sure NONE of these people build their HBD while concentrating solely on Control, Velocity and GB/FB even though those EXACT pitchers would have the best FIP.

How do you have a Cy Young debate without using numbers?  

Bobzilla

I don't think he's saying completely disregard them by any means. Just stating that in this sim, a) it's not as important as in the real world, and b) consequently, other stats carry a larger weight.

At least that's what I'm hearing.

There are certain numbers to use that we know work within the HBD world.   And there are numbers that have been brought into the conversation that may or may not have any place within the HBD world.

This:
I'm sure NONE of these people build their HBD while concentrating solely on Control, Velocity and GB/FB even though those EXACT pitchers would have the best FIP.

Posted by caesari on 2/21/2012 10:55:00 PM (view original):

Posted by JFerg on 2/21/2012 10:53:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/21/2012 10:41:00 PM (view original):
As I said earlier, this became "I know stats better than you and, therefore, I know which ones are more important" than an actual Cy Young debate.

Also, as I mentioned earlier and was conveniently ignored, I'm sure NONE of these people build their HBD while concentrating solely on Control, Velocity and GB/FB even though those EXACT pitchers would have the best FIP.

How do you have a Cy Young debate without using numbers?  

Bobzilla

I don't think he's saying completely disregard them by any means. Just stating that in this sim, a) it's not as important as in the real world, and b) consequently, other stats carry a larger weight.

At least that's what I'm hearing.

But then he's guilty of the exact thing he's saying others are guilty of, that he knows which stats are more important.

Bobzilla

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/21/2012 10:57:00 PM (view original):
There are certain numbers to use that we know work within the HBD world.   And there are numbers that have been brought into the conversation that may or may not have any place within the HBD world.

This:
I'm sure NONE of these people build their HBD while concentrating solely on Control, Velocity and GB/FB even though those EXACT pitchers would have the best FIP.

Does ERA and IP count as stats that work within the HBD world?  Does comparing a pitcher's actual earned runs allowed to what an average pitcher would have done in the same playing time work within the HBD world?  Does using a replacement level work?  Park effects?  'Cause that's all you need to make a case that the wrong guy won the award.  I just want to know at what point does that cross the line and no longer work.

Bobzilla

I know, in HBD, that good pitchers have a low WHIP and a low ERA.

I know, in HBD, that a pitcher with 90 control, velocity and GB/FB will suck balls if his splits and pitches are in the 40s.   But he'll have a nice FIP.

Anything else?

It's been proven, and confirmed, time and time again that finding a pitcher to throw 81 innings while producing a 1.45 WHIP and 4.55 ERA isn't considered to be a difficult task.

And Sheldon had better road stats.   Home park isn't a problem.

Anything else?

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/21/2012 11:09:00 PM (view original):
It's been proven, and confirmed, time and time again that finding a pitcher to throw 81 innings while producing a 1.45 WHIP and 4.55 ERA isn't considered to be a difficult task.

And Sheldon had better road stats.   Home park isn't a problem.

Anything else?

Looking at a player's road stats isn't how you handle home park effects.

I'm done...you all win.

Bobzilla

Posted by oriolemagic on 2/20/2012 11:59:00 AM (view original):
Pitcher one pitches in Honolulu: 205ip 2.50 era, .97 whip, 8.03 k/9, 2.37 bb/9, 1.05 hr/9

 

Pitcher two pitches in Nashville: 286 ip, 3.08 era, 1.11 whip, 7.77 k/9, 2.48 bb/9, .69 hr/9

Honolulu is -2,0,-1,-2,0
Nashville is 1,1,1,1,2
 

Which one and why?

Clearly, the Honolulu pitcher had the better season, even disregarding the park factors.   Better overall numbers.  The 81 extra innings by the Nashville pitcher are irrelevant to the discussion.

Posted by JFerg on 2/21/2012 11:20:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/21/2012 11:09:00 PM (view original):
It's been proven, and confirmed, time and time again that finding a pitcher to throw 81 innings while producing a 1.45 WHIP and 4.55 ERA isn't considered to be a difficult task.

And Sheldon had better road stats.   Home park isn't a problem.

Anything else?

Looking at a player's road stats isn't how you handle home park effects.

I'm done...you all win.

Bobzilla

If you want to say "Yeah, but home park effects.....", I can say "Sheldon was also better on the road."

Anything else?