He's just repeating what's been said over and over again.    Sheldon plus 81 innings of .288 OAV, 1.47 WHIP and 4.56 ERA is equal to Ducey.   Those things aren't hard to find.  Honolulu had 1320 innings, on their staff, better that all three of those things. 

You don't understand that.   You scream "INNINGS AND FIP!!!" over and over again.

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/22/2012 10:00:00 AM (view original):

Posted by oriolemagic on 2/22/2012 9:54:00 AM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/22/2012 9:39:00 AM (view original):
You seem to be incapable of understanding that Honolulu had 1320 innings from it's staff that were better than .288 OAV/1.47 WHIP/4.56 ERA.    That's what they needed for the magical 81 innings that Sheldon didn't pitch to match Ducey's.   They didn't "lose" anything because Sheldon came out.   They were just much better when Sheldon was out there.

The fact that they were much better when Sheldon was out there is what they lost.

Incorrect.   Even without his out there, they only had 150 innings on their entire that that wouldn't equal Ducey's production less Sheldon.

It's not specific to Honolulu's staff.  It needs to be looked at against the replacement as a whole, not one of the better staffs in the world.  Otherwise, you are penalizing a player for the #2 pitcher  being almost as good.

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/22/2012 10:09:00 AM (view original):
He's just repeating what's been said over and over again.    Sheldon plus 81 innings of .288 OAV, 1.47 WHIP and 4.56 ERA is equal to Ducey.   Those things aren't hard to find.  Honolulu had 1320 innings, on their staff, better that all three of those things. 

You don't understand that.   You scream "INNINGS AND FIP!!!" over and over again.

Have you missed the part where we moved past FIP?  Maybe you should re-read the last few pages.

Sheldon pitched for Honolulu.  This is what you said "The fact that they were much better when Sheldon was out there is what they lost".   Does that no longer apply?  

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/22/2012 10:13:00 AM (view original):
Sheldon pitched for Honolulu.  This is what you said "The fact that they were much better when Sheldon was out there is what they lost".   Does that no longer apply?  

I guess its in wording..  Any team is better when their best pitcher is on the mound.  Better?

Boise, a hitter's park and one of the worst teams in the world(67 wins), had over 750 innings that were better than 288 OAV, 1.47 WHIP and 4.56 ERA.    Finding 81 innings capable of that just isn't that hard.

Posted by oriolemagic on 2/22/2012 10:15:00 AM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/22/2012 10:13:00 AM (view original):
Sheldon pitched for Honolulu.  This is what you said "The fact that they were much better when Sheldon was out there is what they lost".   Does that no longer apply?  

I guess its in wording..  Any team is better when their best pitcher is on the mound.  Better?

Sure.   Should we penalize Ducey for the 1170 innings he wasn't on the mound for you?

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/22/2012 10:17:00 AM (view original):

Posted by oriolemagic on 2/22/2012 10:15:00 AM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/22/2012 10:13:00 AM (view original):
Sheldon pitched for Honolulu.  This is what you said "The fact that they were much better when Sheldon was out there is what they lost".   Does that no longer apply?  

I guess its in wording..  Any team is better when their best pitcher is on the mound.  Better?

Sure.   Should we penalize Ducey for the 1170 innings he wasn't on the mound for you?

I'm not penalizing either, I am using it as a basis for comparision, the same way you guys are.  We are saying the same thing.  The difference is in what you are replacing him with and how much it is costing you.  I can, to a point, buy the capacity argument.  What I am going to reply with is, you want max capacity at your best skills, and Ducey provides you more capacity then Sheldon.  Give me a breakdown of where the 81 innings are going (ie 10 to #2 pitcher at this skillset, 50 to bullpen at this skillset, etc) and then determine what the total Wins that combination produces and you can compare.  Otherwise just saying capacity doesnt give enough information to make a factual argument.

Posted by oriolemagic on 2/22/2012 10:09:00 AM (view original):

Posted by frankum on 2/22/2012 10:06:00 AM (view original):
This is interesting stuff....until oriolemagic disregards all points and says "my guy threw more innings so he was better!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

Sheldon pitched better.  ERA/Whip/OAV shows this quite obviously.  The extra 81 innings don't matter, Sheldon was the better pitcher.  No one is denying that they would like to have the extra innings.  But those innings don't make him better than Sheldon, just more durable.

I thought we moved past this already...  People please go back and READ the previous threads before you make a comment that sends us back 15 pages.

All the pertinent information is on page 1.

Sheldon's overall numbers.
Ducey's overall numbers.

Sheldon's home/road splits.
Ducey's home/read splits.

The overall numbers tell the big story.  The home/road splits negate the ballpark differences.

Nothing else is relevant.  19 pages of your arguments do not change the facts on page one.

Posted by oriolemagic on 2/22/2012 10:11:00 AM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/22/2012 10:00:00 AM (view original):

Posted by oriolemagic on 2/22/2012 9:54:00 AM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/22/2012 9:39:00 AM (view original):
You seem to be incapable of understanding that Honolulu had 1320 innings from it's staff that were better than .288 OAV/1.47 WHIP/4.56 ERA.    That's what they needed for the magical 81 innings that Sheldon didn't pitch to match Ducey's.   They didn't "lose" anything because Sheldon came out.   They were just much better when Sheldon was out there.

The fact that they were much better when Sheldon was out there is what they lost.

Incorrect.   Even without his out there, they only had 150 innings on their entire that that wouldn't equal Ducey's production less Sheldon.

It's not specific to Honolulu's staff.  It needs to be looked at against the replacement as a whole, not one of the better staffs in the world.  Otherwise, you are penalizing a player for the #2 pitcher  being almost as good.

Like FIP, the concept of replacement is going to work very differently here than in real life.  I think 81 innings at the additional numbers for Ducey are far less valuable, vs replacement, in most HBD worlds than in real life.  But you would have to test things out over a large sample to create a formular for how many wins a given  sat line is worth vs replacement.  No one's done that.  Saber, including WAR and the replacement concept, just hasn't been worked out for HBD.

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/22/2012 8:37:00 AM (view original):
I think, in real-life, the W/L would matter.    Not so much in HBD.   We utilize players in "odd" ways and really have very little control over what inning a guy is pulled.   If I put the PC at 70-80, he's throwing no more than 82-83 pitches.  If that gets him thru 4 2/3 with a 9 run lead, he's still coming out.   In the real world, the manager would never pull him until he qualifies for the win.   Same thing with PH ratings.   A pitcher losing 1-0 in the 7th will be PH for if the settings indicate that it should happen.  If a pitcher has a one-hitter(solo shot) in the 7th, most managers leave him in if he's not close to his PC.   Not so in HBD.

Let me extend this to the HOF argument, which is a longer tail version of this.

"He's got 300 wins/700HRs. He's in"

It matters. Milestones matter when it's an award. You're talking team building. This is the award for the prettiest.

Posted by oriolemagic on 2/22/2012 10:09:00 AM (view original):

Posted by frankum on 2/22/2012 10:06:00 AM (view original):
This is interesting stuff....until oriolemagic disregards all points and says "my guy threw more innings so he was better!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

Sheldon pitched better.  ERA/Whip/OAV shows this quite obviously.  The extra 81 innings don't matter, Sheldon was the better pitcher.  No one is denying that they would like to have the extra innings.  But those innings don't make him better than Sheldon, just more durable.

I thought we moved past this already...  People please go back and READ the previous threads before you make a comment that sends us back 15 pages.

EVERY TIME YOU POST YOU ARE SENDING US BACK TO THE BEGINNING!!!!!!

Please stop.  Just because you say "look back at previous posts in the thread" doesn't mean a post will suddenly appear back there that makes you any less wrong.  Here are the FACTS:

1) Sheldon's numbers overall were better PER INNING
2) If you paired Sheldon with a pitcher that threw 81 innings with a 1.45 WHIP and 4.55 ERA, their TOTAL would be equal to Ducey's TOTAL.
3) Finding 81 innings with a 1.45 WHIP and 4.55 ERA is pretty easy in HBD if you know what you're doing.
4) Because of 1,2, and 3, Sheldon had the better season.

THREAD CLOSED!!!

Posted by deathinahole on 2/22/2012 10:26:00 AM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/22/2012 8:37:00 AM (view original):
I think, in real-life, the W/L would matter.    Not so much in HBD.   We utilize players in "odd" ways and really have very little control over what inning a guy is pulled.   If I put the PC at 70-80, he's throwing no more than 82-83 pitches.  If that gets him thru 4 2/3 with a 9 run lead, he's still coming out.   In the real world, the manager would never pull him until he qualifies for the win.   Same thing with PH ratings.   A pitcher losing 1-0 in the 7th will be PH for if the settings indicate that it should happen.  If a pitcher has a one-hitter(solo shot) in the 7th, most managers leave him in if he's not close to his PC.   Not so in HBD.

Let me extend this to the HOF argument, which is a longer tail version of this.

"He's got 300 wins/700HRs. He's in"

It matters. Milestones matter when it's an award. You're talking team building. This is the award for the prettiest.

In other words: it's the "Cy Young" award.  Which, in theory, goes to the best pitcher.

If this thread was about MVP, then maybe you can talk about 286 IPs of 3.08 ERA being more valuable than 205 IPs of 2.50 ERA, with all the other supporting stats.  Perhaps 20 pages of discussion is valid for that.  And perhaps I can agree with that.

But this is not MVP, it's CY.  Completely different criteria.

Posted by oriolemagic on 2/22/2012 10:23:00 AM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/22/2012 10:17:00 AM (view original):

Posted by oriolemagic on 2/22/2012 10:15:00 AM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/22/2012 10:13:00 AM (view original):
Sheldon pitched for Honolulu.  This is what you said "The fact that they were much better when Sheldon was out there is what they lost".   Does that no longer apply?  

I guess its in wording..  Any team is better when their best pitcher is on the mound.  Better?

Sure.   Should we penalize Ducey for the 1170 innings he wasn't on the mound for you?

I'm not penalizing either, I am using it as a basis for comparision, the same way you guys are.  We are saying the same thing.  The difference is in what you are replacing him with and how much it is costing you.  I can, to a point, buy the capacity argument.  What I am going to reply with is, you want max capacity at your best skills, and Ducey provides you more capacity then Sheldon.  Give me a breakdown of where the 81 innings are going (ie 10 to #2 pitcher at this skillset, 50 to bullpen at this skillset, etc) and then determine what the total Wins that combination produces and you can compare.  Otherwise just saying capacity doesnt give enough information to make a factual argument.

OK.  As I pointed out, Honolulu had 1320 innings from their staff that were better than what they'd have needed to cover those 81 innings. 

You could argue that all 81 came from Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Heinie Archer.   That's not realistic but you could argue that.   Most likely, he got 65+ innings from pitchers who were better than the .288/1.47/4.56 with the remainder coming from Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Heinie Archer  Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Alex Guevara  Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Eliezer Rosario  Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Bret Ferguson.   IOW, roughly 80% of the time, Sheldon+RP was better than Ducey 100% of the time.   I like those odds.

Posted by JFerg on 2/21/2012 12:34:00 PM (view original):
I'm a friend posting under JFerg's account.

First, we need to make sure we understand how to evaluate baseball players.  Wins are the primary unit of measurement, with runs being the secondary unit of measurement.  Basically, in your typical baseball season, every 10 runs or so will create one win for your team.  This depends on the run scoring environment though.  The run scoring environment for this league seems to be a little higher than normal, but this doesn't matter when comparing two players within one season, but instead when comparing two players in two different seasons.  

So now we're looking for how many runs each pitcher saved.  The most basic stat to look at is ERA.  If you want to attribute a pitcher's ERA fully to himself, you have every right to do so.  But let's break down what ERA is comprised of.  Basically, it involves three things.  They are:

1.  Balls not in play (K, BB, HBP, HR)  These are almost 100% under the pitcher's control.
2.  Balls in play (All non-HR hits and outs recorded by fieders)  I don't think anyone would argue that the pitcher entirely controls these plays
3.  Sequencing (Out, out, 2B, BB, BB, out vs. BB, BB, 2B, out, out, out) 

It's up to everyone individually to determine how much of these three to use in evaluating pitchers.  If you're just using FIP, you're ignoring #2 and #3.  If you're using ERA, you're using all three.  If you use ERA but try to factor out the differences of defense behind each pitcher, your using #1, #3, and some of #2.  

For #1, Ducey did outpitch Sheldon.  You can just use FIP and see that this is true.  My guess is that Sheldon's ERA advantage comes from #2, and maybe #3.  I don't have the BABIP numbers, but my guess is Sheldon did better on balls in play.  Here's the problem with that in real life.  At the seasonal level, most of the difference between BABIP is due to luck.  Or if the luck doesn't sit well with you, call it random variation.  Here is a link to see what I mean: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/do_you_want_to_bet_rob_neyer/ 

As you can see, there is a tiny amount of skill in terms of balls in play, but it takes a large amount of data to accurately see that skill.  Now, I've been told that BABIP differences are larger than real life in this simulation.  I'm in a good mood though, so I'm going to give 100% of that difference to the pitchers.  Which means I'm not even going to consider the differences in defense for both teams.  Same thing goes for sequencing.  Whatever difference there was, I'm going to fully attribute it to each pitcher.  Thus, I'm solely going to use ERA in comparing both pitchers.

Another poster pointed how many runs each saved compared to average.  And they were identical.  What this means is, when using an average baseline, both pitchers saved the same amount of runs for their team.  However, in real life, baseball talent is NOT evenly distributed.  There is not a bell curve when in comes to MLB talent.  What this means, is that there are far, far more below average players than above average players.  There are far, far more below average players than exactly average players.  What this means is that being below average still has value.  I'm going to assume that this non-even distribution of talent also exists in this league.  

What this means, is that the average baseline is too high.  You're missing out on some of their value.  The replacement level for a starting pitchers is about 70% below average.  Using this baseline, Ducey actually has saved about 10 more runs than Sheldon through out the season.  For anyone trying to remove Ducey's IP advantage, you are wrong, at least in real life.  Basically, Sheldon plus 81 average innings = Ducey.  But, if this league is similar to real MLB, average is hard to come by.  Meaning there is value in those 81 extra innings.  

Last thing we need to look at is home parks.  From what I'm told Shledon pitches in a pitcher's park and Ducey pitches in a hitter's park.  I don't have the exact increases in scoring for each park, so I'm just going to assume that it's 5% for both parks.  That is, one park increases scoring by 5% and the other decreases scoring by 5%.  This may not seem huge, but it actually creates another 10-difference between the two players.  Thus, Ducey is now 20 runs better than Sheldon.  Or approximately 2 wins above replacement better.  

I used only four things in making this evaluation by the way.  They were ERA, IP, replacement level, and differences in their home parks.  Bottom line, Sheldon saved runs at a better rate, but pitched less innings, and did so in a pitcher's park.  The math says Ducey had a better season.  You can't argue with the math, only with the assumptions.  If you knock out using replacement level, then Ducey still wins based on being equal compared to average but doing so in a tougher park.  If you knock out the park advantage, they're equal.  So you have to knock out the innings advantage, and look only at ERA to get Sheldon being more valuable than Ducey.

I'll be more than happy to answer any questions.

Bobzilla

Hey JV - What makes your facts better then his facts?