No, MWR does not work. Here is why:
- Wins. Wins can flucutuate year to year based on luck (good and bad). If your rebuilding, and a MWR is to average 60 wins a season, and you have a season in which you win 55 games, but your expected win % suggests you should've won 62 (this can be common) you get booted. No consideration to whether or not you managed your team the right way and just had bad luck. A tanking team has clear signs that they were purposely trying to lose (i.e. using rookie level pitchers, playing peopel way out of position, using 0% pitchers, etc.).
- Not all rebuilds are created equal. They just aren't. Draft classes, IFA classes vary in talent each year. If during your rebuild you encounter a couple of poor classes that elongates your rebuilding. If your using a progressive MWR, it is making the assumptions all rebuids are created equal and it is dictating the wins totals (which again can fluctuate on luck) for a rebuild. Its ludicrous.
- It makes rebuilds last longer. How is that? Cause teams are more focused on meeting an MWR rather than doing what is right by their team. Their is no difference between winning 65 and 60 games. Their just isn't. It makes little sense for a rebuilding team to spend say 7M on 32 yr old free agent, when it can invest that money in IFA's. And because of #4 listed below if they fall in the middle of the pack, they will continually be missing out on the top players.
- There is no player development. Zero. What I mean is there is no depth in the draft of IFA market. You can rarely get a star in typical draft classes past the first half of the draft. Sometimes you can't outside of the top 10. In real life you can find stars in later rounds in the draft, or cheap IFA's. Sometimes, players develop that you don't expect. This happens quite a lot in MLB, where the top players in the game aren't always top draft picks. This does not happen in HBD. Probability of a top pick or IFA making an impact is darn near close to 100%. But because of that there are a lmited number of them (which makes sense). The only way to acquire these players are drafting low or investing in IFA's. The only way to rebuild is by spending a few seasons notching a couple of these players
- It may remove dedicated owners who were subject to some bad luck. The creator of this thread, Reino, who is an MWR supporter. Was booted from a league after 21 seasons for failing to meet the MWR requirement. In his last season he lost 6 more games than his pythag record suggested, meaning he sufferred from bad luck. After being kicked out of the league for 1 season, he was brough back in the following season. What? How does this make sense? If the purpose of the MWR is remove "bad" owners or "tankers" then how can removing a dedicated owner of 21 seasons be good for the league? And if, by MWR standards, it was deemed he was a "bad" owner, how is letting him back in the league make sense? It doesn't make sense.
- When looking at evidence it doesn't work in practice. I shared this with a league I am in, the Commisioner was proposing an MWR, and essentially stated how well it worked in a league he was. So I looked at his league and compared it to the one that was "so bad off" that an MWR is needed. What did I find. SImply put, there was little to no variance between top teams records, middle team records, and bottom team records. In fact I found that the division races were closer in the league without the MWR.
I am not totally against MWRs perse. I am against progressive MWRs, cause any rule that assumes all rebuilds are created equal and standardizes a time frame for rebuilding, just misses the point. And I am against hard MWRs, were there is no review or consideration to whether or not the owner was acting in good faith. I believe a soft MWR, with a small comittee of veteran owners (3 or 5) review teams that fall under the MWR to see if they had any clear evidence of tanking. The league should define what type of evidence identifies tanking, and then the committe votes on it.