Posted by deanod on 5/7/2012 10:53:00 AM (view original):
It shouldn't take very much thought to realize that saving $4M in S1-S4 is always better than saving $1M in S5.  It actually took zero thought for me, because it was just completely ******* obvious from the moment I started playing HBD.  You're only hurting yourself by overthinking here.

All I ever do is make decisions with a "one size fits all" framework and I'm in the playoffs every damn year.  OTOH you and Mike are all about situational awareness and never make the playoffs.  If my mantra is dumb, what does that make you guys?

If I have some prospects or pre-arb guys in S1-S4 who will all be hitting arb-1 or arb-2 in S5, then maybe that $1m in S5 means more to me now than $1m in each of S1-S4.

But then again, that's "situational" and not something that you would concern yourself with.

OK, deal.  I'll never definitively make incorrect statements, I'll stick to being defintive about correct statements only.

And no I'm not always right.  Not even within the scope of HBD am I always right.  But I also vary my confidence levels based on the subject matter; if you ask me what 2 + 2 is I don't need to hedge when I say 4.

 

And just to humor you, let's pretend that there is a very unique 1 in a million situation where it is ever so slightly advantageous to offer 4/50 instead of 5/50 with an option.  Does that really dilute the quality of the one size fits all strategy?

Posted by tecwrg on 5/7/2012 11:18:00 AM (view original):

Posted by deanod on 5/7/2012 10:53:00 AM (view original):
It shouldn't take very much thought to realize that saving $4M in S1-S4 is always better than saving $1M in S5.  It actually took zero thought for me, because it was just completely ******* obvious from the moment I started playing HBD.  You're only hurting yourself by overthinking here.

All I ever do is make decisions with a "one size fits all" framework and I'm in the playoffs every damn year.  OTOH you and Mike are all about situational awareness and never make the playoffs.  If my mantra is dumb, what does that make you guys?

If I have some prospects or pre-arb guys in S1-S4 who will all be hitting arb-1 or arb-2 in S5, then maybe that $1m in S5 means more to me now than $1m in each of S1-S4.

But then again, that's "situational" and not something that you would concern yourself with.

This is such a losing mentality.

You are insane if you think $1M in S5 can possibly be greater than $4M in S1-4.  YOU ARE SELLING FOR 25 CENTS ON THE DOLLAR!!!  If it doesn't fit your roster situation (which is dubious at best; if you're good you should pretty much always be able to find some sort of useful allocation of spare cash) then make some damn trades such that it does fit your roster situation.  So long as you are getting > 25 cents on the dollar in your dealings, you'll be net making out ahead.

Let's be serious for a moment.  Why was this thread started?  Because I signed Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Roy Branson to a front-loaded contract after telling you your similar, younger, lower health player was overpaid and refusing to trade you the #4 pick from a couple of seasons ago along with a respectable bat, good glove IFA SS.   You didn't like the way I structured the deal(yet seemed to back away from your dumbassery on page 1).

Nonetheless, you and jvf went on about the only way to structure contracts.   Sadly, you don't know everyone's situation even though you obviously feel you do.    Here goes:

I had a ton of  unused payroll.  I was in the IFA market for several seasons and I don't find it enjoyable.   I reduced my IFA scouting because I don't intend to be in it again.   I looked at the FA class and it sucked.   I've got a lot of young players who will be hitting arb/FA.   I'm guessing 2/3 of my team will be home-grown within the next 2-3 seasons.  So I decided front-loading deals would work better for me to give myself flexibility in future seasons when, maybe, the FA classes will be better and, definitely, I'll be wanting to sign some of my guys long-term.   Looking back, because the crappy FA got such big deals, I wish I had offered Branson a huge bonus.   I ended up giving a big bonus to a 39 y/o pitcher because I had so much payroll left.   He was the best pitching option that wasn't going for 100m.   I know, without question, that I will not be trading a prospect for an overpaid vet this season so I don't need 15m in cap space.

That's why your "always" is stupid.   I'm pretty happy with my current/future payroll situation.

Season 24	$90,000,000	$86,319,460	$86,319,460
Season 25	$72,000,000	$43,985,000	$43,985,000
Season 26	$63,000,000	$24,485,000	$24,485,000
Season 27	$54,000,000	$10,500,000	$10,500,000
Season 28	$45,000,000	$9,750,150	$9,750,150

19.2m of next season is team/mutual option.   If I want to re-enter IFA, I'll have plenty of room.  If the FA class is better, I'll have plenty of room.   I'll have plenty of room for arb/own FA.  And, with about 4m in cap space this season, I can still take on a salary or two if I decide I want to trade for a vet down the stretch.   Get it?

Posted by MikeT23 on 5/7/2012 11:31:00 AM (view original):
Let's be serious for a moment.  Why was this thread started?  Because I signed Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Roy Branson to a front-loaded contract after telling you your similar, younger, lower health player was overpaid and refusing to trade you the #4 pick from a couple of seasons ago along with a respectable bat, good glove IFA SS.   You didn't like the way I structured the deal(yet seemed to back away from your dumbassery on page 1).

Nonetheless, you and jvf went on about the only way to structure contracts.   Sadly, you don't know everyone's situation even though you obviously feel you do.    Here goes:

I had a ton of  unused payroll.  I was in the IFA market for several seasons and I don't find it enjoyable.   I reduced my IFA scouting because I don't intend to be in it again.   I looked at the FA class and it sucked.   I've got a lot of young players who will be hitting arb/FA.   I'm guessing 2/3 of my team will be home-grown within the next 2-3 seasons.  So I decided front-loading deals would work better for me to give myself flexibility in future seasons when, maybe, the FA classes will be better and, definitely, I'll be wanting to sign some of my guys long-term.   Looking back, because the crappy FA got such big deals, I wish I had offered Branson a huge bonus.   I ended up giving a big bonus to a 39 y/o pitcher because I had so much payroll left.   He was the best pitching option that wasn't going for 100m.   I know, without question, that I will not be trading a prospect for an overpaid vet this season so I don't need 15m in cap space.

That's why your "always" is stupid.   I'm pretty happy with my current/future payroll situation.

Season 24	$90,000,000	$86,319,460	$86,319,460
Season 25	$72,000,000	$43,985,000	$43,985,000
Season 26	$63,000,000	$24,485,000	$24,485,000
Season 27	$54,000,000	$10,500,000	$10,500,000
Season 28	$45,000,000	$9,750,150	$9,750,150

19.2m of next season is team/mutual option.   If I want to re-enter IFA, I'll have plenty of room.  If the FA class is better, I'll have plenty of room.   I'll have plenty of room for arb/own FA.  And, with about 4m in cap space this season, I can still take on a salary or two if I decide I want to trade for a vet down the stretch.   Get it?

FWIW I started it because there were a lot of bad contracts that cycle and it seemed that a thread like this was overdue.

And all you prove w/ your analysis is that you can stomach the guaranteed money in the deal; you still would have made out better if you maxed out the mutual option salary.

It's like this- we all have $185M to work with every season to build the best possible team that we can.  Whoever stretches out their 185M to acquire the best 25 man rosters wins, whoever doesn't loses.  My entire MO is getting as much bang for my buck as I can at every angle, and it works for me.  Sometimes I will be OK with selling for 80 cents on the dollar or buying for 120 cents to fill a particular need, but that's the exception and I'm sure as hell never selling for 25 cents on the dollar.   The people who do are the ones that make it easy to dominate, because they are always busy shooting themselves in the foot, bending over for me in trades, or both.

Posted by deanod on 5/7/2012 11:36:00 AM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 5/7/2012 11:31:00 AM (view original):
Let's be serious for a moment.  Why was this thread started?  Because I signed Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Roy Branson to a front-loaded contract after telling you your similar, younger, lower health player was overpaid and refusing to trade you the #4 pick from a couple of seasons ago along with a respectable bat, good glove IFA SS.   You didn't like the way I structured the deal(yet seemed to back away from your dumbassery on page 1).

Nonetheless, you and jvf went on about the only way to structure contracts.   Sadly, you don't know everyone's situation even though you obviously feel you do.    Here goes:

I had a ton of  unused payroll.  I was in the IFA market for several seasons and I don't find it enjoyable.   I reduced my IFA scouting because I don't intend to be in it again.   I looked at the FA class and it sucked.   I've got a lot of young players who will be hitting arb/FA.   I'm guessing 2/3 of my team will be home-grown within the next 2-3 seasons.  So I decided front-loading deals would work better for me to give myself flexibility in future seasons when, maybe, the FA classes will be better and, definitely, I'll be wanting to sign some of my guys long-term.   Looking back, because the crappy FA got such big deals, I wish I had offered Branson a huge bonus.   I ended up giving a big bonus to a 39 y/o pitcher because I had so much payroll left.   He was the best pitching option that wasn't going for 100m.   I know, without question, that I will not be trading a prospect for an overpaid vet this season so I don't need 15m in cap space.

That's why your "always" is stupid.   I'm pretty happy with my current/future payroll situation.

Season 24	$90,000,000	$86,319,460	$86,319,460
Season 25	$72,000,000	$43,985,000	$43,985,000
Season 26	$63,000,000	$24,485,000	$24,485,000
Season 27	$54,000,000	$10,500,000	$10,500,000
Season 28	$45,000,000	$9,750,150	$9,750,150

19.2m of next season is team/mutual option.   If I want to re-enter IFA, I'll have plenty of room.  If the FA class is better, I'll have plenty of room.   I'll have plenty of room for arb/own FA.  And, with about 4m in cap space this season, I can still take on a salary or two if I decide I want to trade for a vet down the stretch.   Get it?

FWIW I started it because there were a lot of bad contracts that cycle and it seemed that a thread like this was overdue.

And all you prove w/ your analysis is that you can stomach the guaranteed money in the deal; you still would have made out better if you maxed out the mutual option salary.

Maxing out the Mutual Option year means either 1.) you decide to keep him and you're paying a ton in his last year or 2.) option him out so you're paying a player money that is no longer on the team any longer. 

I don't like either of those scenarios. 

lol mitch

it's funny that I always confused you and tec (you were always sort of merged as a single entity in my mind) and then you come out and agree with him using such tec-ish logic that I actually feel very validated right now.

At the end of the day, we're talking about 1m difference in S5(assuming I decline and that's not a gimme because the ratings I like from him aren't the ones that take big hits as they age).   In my situation and under my current plan, I had/have way more money on the front end.

Admit that you got all butthurt because I refused to send you good players for a 2B/3B who can OPS .750.   He isn't a difference-maker and you wanted more than I was willing to give in trade.

And, as you know, the crap FA class led to all the overpriced contracts.  When you budget for FA and the FA sucks, you overpay.

Posted by deanod on 5/7/2012 11:30:00 AM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 5/7/2012 11:18:00 AM (view original):

Posted by deanod on 5/7/2012 10:53:00 AM (view original):
It shouldn't take very much thought to realize that saving $4M in S1-S4 is always better than saving $1M in S5.  It actually took zero thought for me, because it was just completely ******* obvious from the moment I started playing HBD.  You're only hurting yourself by overthinking here.

All I ever do is make decisions with a "one size fits all" framework and I'm in the playoffs every damn year.  OTOH you and Mike are all about situational awareness and never make the playoffs.  If my mantra is dumb, what does that make you guys?

If I have some prospects or pre-arb guys in S1-S4 who will all be hitting arb-1 or arb-2 in S5, then maybe that $1m in S5 means more to me now than $1m in each of S1-S4.

But then again, that's "situational" and not something that you would concern yourself with.

This is such a losing mentality.

You are insane if you think $1M in S5 can possibly be greater than $4M in S1-4.  YOU ARE SELLING FOR 25 CENTS ON THE DOLLAR!!!  If it doesn't fit your roster situation (which is dubious at best; if you're good you should pretty much always be able to find some sort of useful allocation of spare cash) then make some damn trades such that it does fit your roster situation.  So long as you are getting > 25 cents on the dollar in your dealings, you'll be net making out ahead.

And that is based on your flawed assumption that every dollar of my payroll budget is worth the same to me every season.  Which might not necessarily be true.

I could be in a transition period where I might be running a fairly low payroll for a couple of seasons, I'm transitioning my other budgets (scouting, medical, training, etc.) for whatever reasons I may choose to do so, and due to the nature of +/- $4m budget adjustment restrictions, I may have more payroll budget than I really need now. So I may be more willing to spend it more freely now because it's a "use it or lose it" surplus, a luxury I may not have a few seasons down the road.

Again, it's situational.  If I save $1m a season in S1-4, but I don't spend it in those seasons because I have no need or nothing to spend it on, then what have I really accomplished by saving it?

Posted by MikeT23 on 5/7/2012 11:49:00 AM (view original):
At the end of the day, we're talking about 1m difference in S5(assuming I decline and that's not a gimme because the ratings I like from him aren't the ones that take big hits as they age).   In my situation and under my current plan, I had/have way more money on the front end.

Admit that you got all butthurt because I refused to send you good players for a 2B/3B who can OPS .750.   He isn't a difference-maker and you wanted more than I was willing to give in trade.

And, as you know, the crap FA class led to all the overpriced contracts.  When you budget for FA and the FA sucks, you overpay.

Why would I be BH over that?  Remember I withdrew my offer and told you that I liked reino's prospect better than yours.

It's funny that deano talks of "maximizing budget" but doesn't understand that, due to the changing nature of rosters/needs/plans, that $1 in S1 may not carry the same individual value in S5.   Or that $4 in S1 may not have the same value as $1 in S5.    Weird.

Posted by deanod on 5/7/2012 11:55:00 AM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 5/7/2012 11:49:00 AM (view original):
At the end of the day, we're talking about 1m difference in S5(assuming I decline and that's not a gimme because the ratings I like from him aren't the ones that take big hits as they age).   In my situation and under my current plan, I had/have way more money on the front end.

Admit that you got all butthurt because I refused to send you good players for a 2B/3B who can OPS .750.   He isn't a difference-maker and you wanted more than I was willing to give in trade.

And, as you know, the crap FA class led to all the overpriced contracts.  When you budget for FA and the FA sucks, you overpay.

Why would I be BH over that?  Remember I withdrew my offer and told you that I liked reino's prospect better than yours.

Because you act like a teenage girl about 70% of the time.   And an arrogant *** the other 30% of the time.  

How dare I not accept your offer?   Surely I don't understand the game as well as you so I should have known it was a fair offer, right?

Posted by MikeT23 on 5/7/2012 11:55:00 AM (view original):
It's funny that deano talks of "maximizing budget" but doesn't understand that, due to the changing nature of rosters/needs/plans, that $1 in S1 may not carry the same individual value in S5.   Or that $4 in S1 may not have the same value as $1 in S5.    Weird.

Maybe he needs to make another "Hey guys . . . " YouTube video to explain it to us dumbasses.

Posted by MikeT23 on 5/7/2012 12:00:00 PM (view original):

Posted by deanod on 5/7/2012 11:55:00 AM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 5/7/2012 11:49:00 AM (view original):
At the end of the day, we're talking about 1m difference in S5(assuming I decline and that's not a gimme because the ratings I like from him aren't the ones that take big hits as they age).   In my situation and under my current plan, I had/have way more money on the front end.

Admit that you got all butthurt because I refused to send you good players for a 2B/3B who can OPS .750.   He isn't a difference-maker and you wanted more than I was willing to give in trade.

And, as you know, the crap FA class led to all the overpriced contracts.  When you budget for FA and the FA sucks, you overpay.

Why would I be BH over that?  Remember I withdrew my offer and told you that I liked reino's prospect better than yours.

Because you act like a teenage girl about 70% of the time.   And an arrogant *** the other 30% of the time.  

How dare I not accept your offer?   Surely I don't understand the game as well as you so I should have known it was a fair offer, right?

Huh?  I didn't care that you didn't accept my offer.  The whole argument was over the fact that you blasted reino for getting bent by me, and then you went ahead and filled your 3B hole through different means of overpay that wasn't any more favorable for you than acquiring Arias was for him.