Posted by ssauve25 on 6/13/2012 3:07:00 PM (view original):
But generally speaking there isn't differences in like categories the way there are in pitches, correct? In hitting, splits and contact seem to grow together in the first few seasons equally. After season 4 or so ( depending on age ) you may have growth in one here or there, but they develop together. I ask this question in reference to trading or drafting. Would you be reluctant to draft/trade for a 18 y/o whose pitches are currently 70/60/45/40 and projected to be 85/80/55/50 knowing that if that pitcher misses those last 3 projections it will take a huge hit in his value. Rather than a pitcher who has a lower ceiling but a lower gap in his current and projections. Of course these questions are in a vaccuum. And sorry if they are convoluted.
There are skill ratings (such as contact, splits, pitches, etc.), and there are physical ratings (such as power, speed, durability, stamina, etc.). Skill ratings develop differently than physical ratings, in that skill ratings develop in-season (via coaching, playing time, etc.) while physical ratings develop off-season (due to training budget). Not sure if that's what you're asking or not.
Trading for an 18 year old is always going to be risky. Unless you have an ADV budget of $20m (or close to it), you have no idea of the accuracy of the projections you see. And an 18 year old is not going to have a known development pattern that you can analyze and predict (as one does with $0 ADV).