Posted by sneekes on 6/15/2012 9:41:00 AM (view original):
It's a fairly marginal gain, but is there a slight long-term advantage to drafting HS? In that if you draft, develop, arb and sign to a 5 year deal - a high-schooler will be around 32-33yrs old when he hits FA; whereas the equivalent college player will be 33-36yrs old. The college player will be further into his decline phase, and therefore less likely to qualify for a compensation pick.

I think your math is a bit off.  Wouldnt a HS would be 28-29 and a Coll would be 32-33?

Posted by sneekes on 6/15/2012 10:59:00 AM (view original):
But if - post arb years - you're offering a shorter contract to a college guy in order not to edge into his decline years, than you would the equivalent high-schooler...then isn't that an advantage to drafting high-schoolers - you get more years out of them (not withstanding Tec's point around HSers needing more development time).
Like I said - it's marginal - but I think there's something there.

It all depends on how you look at things.   Rather than arb1, sign him to a 5 year deal at a cheaper rate.   Yes, that means I only have him controlled for 9 seasons(20 game call-up, 3 minimum, 5 LT) but I also have him cheaper on the back-end before he starts to decline.   I'll use that extra 15m over the course of those 5 to acquire something else of use.

Posted by a_ersberg on 6/15/2012 11:11:00 AM (view original):

Posted by sneekes on 6/15/2012 9:41:00 AM (view original):
It's a fairly marginal gain, but is there a slight long-term advantage to drafting HS? In that if you draft, develop, arb and sign to a 5 year deal - a high-schooler will be around 32-33yrs old when he hits FA; whereas the equivalent college player will be 33-36yrs old. The college player will be further into his decline phase, and therefore less likely to qualify for a compensation pick.

I think your math is a bit off.  Wouldnt a HS would be 28-29 and a Coll would be 32-33?

I was assuming the following, 18,19,20 in the minors, called up 20 days into the season he turns 21, so on league minimum ages 22, 23, 24. Arb when he's 25, 26, 27, and then a 5-year deal 28-32. Hits free agency at 33.

Posted by MikeT23 on 6/15/2012 11:20:00 AM (view original):

Posted by sneekes on 6/15/2012 10:59:00 AM (view original):
But if - post arb years - you're offering a shorter contract to a college guy in order not to edge into his decline years, than you would the equivalent high-schooler...then isn't that an advantage to drafting high-schoolers - you get more years out of them (not withstanding Tec's point around HSers needing more development time).
Like I said - it's marginal - but I think there's something there.

It all depends on how you look at things.   Rather than arb1, sign him to a 5 year deal at a cheaper rate.   Yes, that means I only have him controlled for 9 seasons(20 game call-up, 3 minimum, 5 LT) but I also have him cheaper on the back-end before he starts to decline.   I'll use that extra 15m over the course of those 5 to acquire something else of use.

That's an interesting tactic, you may see my trying that should the situation arise!

i go 20 college/0 hs...cuz i want my guys getting to to the bigs sooner...if you dont mind waiting an extra 2 or 3 years for their development then go high school...