Luis Cairo

I know for sure I will bat him lead-off vs righties, but his vs lefties is incredibly good... I was thinking he would be more productive batting 3rd vs lefties

Is he your best option to bat leadoff?  I prefer on base skills to all else in a leadoff hitter, and looking at your roster I don't see many others who obviously scream "I'm a better OBP guy".  Well, Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Vladimir Gutierrez does, but I can understand wanting to use him lower in the lineup.  Sure, he looks like a decent option to bat first.

That guy will have a .400+ OBP.  I doubt there are too many better options in the league.

I think people often make the mistake of thinking that walks = OBP.  In fact, it's walks + hits.  That guy will get a ton of hits.  His OBP will be elite.  Seems like a perfect leadoff hitter to me.

Yeah, I'm familiar with the components of OBP, but (a) hits fluxtuate more than walks, and (b) a mid-70s vR combined with a low-70s batting eye (even with mid-90s contact) does not guarantee a 400+ OBP in HBD.  For instance:  Cairo is similar to Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: David Newson who hits second for me.  Indianapolis is a better hitting environment than Florida, and I would expect a higher batting average, but assuming a similar walk rate (10%), Cairo will need to hit about .340 to get to a 400 OBP.  Maybe he does that every season, maybe he doesn't.  When answering the question I assumed he would provide somewhere between a 360-400 OBP, which is solid-to-excellent, but to just assume that he will OBP 400+ every season is probably unrealistic. 

Also, I am not certain what sort of worlds you play in, but in most of mine a fringe-400 OBP is not close to the best in the world.

My only concern with batting him leadoff, is that he will drive in much fewer runs. Considering he will hit 40+ doubles and 20+ home runs a year. But the above posters are right, he is pretty much the only lead-off option I have.

Posted by tedwmoore on 7/24/2012 7:02:00 PM (view original):
Yeah, I'm familiar with the components of OBP, but (a) hits fluxtuate more than walks, and (b) a mid-70s vR combined with a low-70s batting eye (even with mid-90s contact) does not guarantee a 400+ OBP in HBD.  For instance:  Cairo is similar to Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: David Newson who hits second for me.  Indianapolis is a better hitting environment than Florida, and I would expect a higher batting average, but assuming a similar walk rate (10%), Cairo will need to hit about .340 to get to a 400 OBP.  Maybe he does that every season, maybe he doesn't.  When answering the question I assumed he would provide somewhere between a 360-400 OBP, which is solid-to-excellent, but to just assume that he will OBP 400+ every season is probably unrealistic. 

Also, I am not certain what sort of worlds you play in, but in most of mine a fringe-400 OBP is not close to the best in the world.

Well no, I never said that it would be the best in the world.  I just said his OBP will be elite.  If you're consistently in the top 15 in the Majors in OBP (which I imagine .400 OBP is), I would call that elite.  Maybe slightly less than elite, but close enough.

As for Newson vs. Cairo, a number of those ML seasons by Newson were with him at worse ratings.  Since season 17, he has been a .300+ hitter, and I think he's probably will be closer to .315 for the rest of his career.  I would add a few points for Cairo's 20 extra vL.  So you're right, maybe he's not a consistent .400+, but I'll bet he's pretty close for his career.

Posted by isack24 on 7/24/2012 6:25:00 PM (view original):
That guy will have a .400+ OBP.  I doubt there are too many better options in the league.

I think people often make the mistake of thinking that walks = OBP.  In fact, it's walks + hits.  That guy will get a ton of hits.  His OBP will be elite.  Seems like a perfect leadoff hitter to me.

You may not have said best...

Yes, a 400 OBP is elite, but a 360 is not. Look, the guy will be solid, but to say he will consistently feature a 400+ OBP is crazy. Go look at the batting average leaders in your world, notice how few hit 340, then notice how few of those manage to hit 340 every season. His batting average will fluctuate (my sub-a above), and without an elite walk rate he will fall short of a 400 OBP in several seasons.

Posted by tedwmoore on 7/25/2012 12:00:00 AM (view original):

Posted by isack24 on 7/24/2012 6:25:00 PM (view original):
That guy will have a .400+ OBP.  I doubt there are too many better options in the league.

I think people often make the mistake of thinking that walks = OBP.  In fact, it's walks + hits.  That guy will get a ton of hits.  His OBP will be elite.  Seems like a perfect leadoff hitter to me.

You may not have said best...

Yes, a 400 OBP is elite, but a 360 is not. Look, the guy will be solid, but to say he will consistently feature a 400+ OBP is crazy. Go look at the batting average leaders in your world, notice how few hit 340, then notice how few of those manage to hit 340 every season. His batting average will fluctuate (my sub-a above), and without an elite walk rate he will fall short of a 400 OBP in several seasons.

So maybe you should have read my entire second post, in which I admit that he may not be consistent .400+.

But by all means, continue to argue with yourself.

Plus, he doesn't need to hit .340 if we're assuming OBP = AVG + eye.

That aside, I will even back off further and say he's probably closer to a consistent .380 guy, which is still just fine for a leadoff hitter.

And frankly, I couldn't find a good comp in my world.  Yours is an OK comp, but I can't find anyone with that high splits to go along with 98 contact.  And I think this guy will hit for a higher average and, consequently, have a higher OBP than yours.  Plus, as I said before, it's really only the last season or two we should be looking at for your guy. 

Yes.

Posted by nauds3000 on 7/24/2012 5:40:00 PM (view original):
Luis Cairo

I know for sure I will bat him lead-off vs righties, but his vs lefties is incredibly good... I was thinking he would be more productive batting 3rd vs lefties

He'll be a very good lead-off hitter with high OBP. My only concern is his low BR. When you couple that with great speed you could have a guy that attempts a lot of SBs and gets caught 40% of the time.

I assume you're going to play him in LF in the bigs...he'll kill you at 3B.

This guy should not be stealing. It will hurt more than helps. 

LF...Lead off every day he's 100% for the next 12 years.