I was dividing RC27 by 6 because I estimated about 4.5 AB per game.

I think your right Nerager, upon further review.

This is extra math.  Because PC runs saved formula is based on catching every inning, I would divide 1458 (# Of innings 162 games no extra innings) by innings played by the given player.  Then multiply runs created by that number.

Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Albert Rivera 65 PC, CERA 3.727, RC27 2.81
Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Warren Zaun 52 PC, CERA 4.253, RC27 4.92

If my math is right, Rivera would have "saved" 85.212 runs over a full 162 games.
Rivera would have created 455.22 runs and Zaun would have created 797.04,

Those numbers tell me something I figured out way too late in the season.

I think you're too high on the offensive end - the RC27 is based on runs created by that player per every 27 outs that he creates (AB mins hits plus DP plus CS, or something like that), not his team.  I'm not sure if DP and CS are really included, but I think I'd include CS, at least.  That's why others are dividing by a factor.  I think 6 is too low of a divisor because the player shouldn't average 4.5 outs per game.  9 would be closer but I think it should differ by player based on OBP?  The inverse of OBP is out percentage, other than some noise around GDP and CS.

Yeah, I was just using simple math to show the disparity between runs saved and runs created.   247 is a lot even if you factor down the RC. 

Posted by MikeT23 on 7/26/2012 9:53:00 PM (view original):
Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Albert Rivera 65 PC, CERA 3.727, RC27 2.81
Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Warren Zaun 52 PC, CERA 4.253, RC27 4.92

If my math is right, Rivera would have "saved" 85.212 runs over a full 162 games.
Rivera would have created 455.22 runs and Zaun would have created 797.04,

Those numbers tell me something I figured out way too late in the season.

Going my your previous formula of 0.12 runs for every 10 of PC (or 0.012 for every 1 PC), Zaun would need to create .156 more runs than Rivera.

Dividing the difference between Zaun's and Rivera's RC27 by 9 (to more accurately reflect their contributions), you get .234 more runs per game offensively from Zaun than you would from Rivera.

So playing Zaun would give you a net gain of 0.078 runs per game, or 12.636 runs for the season.  Given the rule of thumb that every additional 10 runs produced equals one additional win, then Zaun gives you around 1.25 more wins per season than Rivera.

Yeah, I brainfarted last night and decided a team full of Zauns would do this and a team full of Riveras would do that.

The CERA is real numbers so I'd stick with them.
The RC27 is real numbers so I'd stick with them.

I'd probably divide the RC27 by 8(NL team) and, realistically, Zaun produced 42 more runs while Rivera saved 85 on the season(assuming full-time play).

No matter what you think you've figured out, everything is a small sample size. Catchers with PCs 40 points apart can have roughly the same CERA in roughly the same number of innings receiving the same pitchers. There is so much variability in this game that you might as well go with your gut feel, see what seems to be working and play your hunches.

Don't let the disappointments bring you down, and when you're winning don't think you've got it figured out. Things can change in a heartbeat.

Well, thanks for the pep talk.

If you believe this "There is so much variability in this game", there's really no reason for you to play.

Posted by MikeT23 on 8/1/2012 8:39:00 AM (view original):
If you believe this "There is so much variability in this game", there's really no reason for you to play.

Some people like games of pure chance.  It can be exciting to pull a card and see if you get to take the rainbow trail, or if you get stuck in the molasses swamp.

There is some variability, just like baseball where the difference between .250 and .300 is 1 hit per week, but one of the better teams inevitably comes out on top when all the cards have been dealt.