As part of the mentor program, I was asked a handful of questions.  One of them was a question about a 4th year catcher, heading into his final arbitration season.  Question is, sign him long term or arbitrate him, which is a question I always struggle to answer properly, so much depends on the team and world's personal situation, so I try to make it a world neutral answer, but I've never had a good feel for what a guy is exactly worth.  So I figured I'd turn to the experts on the forum and see what they suggest, not only to help the person who came to me looking for advice, but to gain a little knowledge myself that I can perhaps pass along someday:

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=4040637

Above is the player in question.

81 overall, so he'd be a Type A.  PC is 88, arm strength is 80, arm accuracy is 66.  Very solid defensively, but not off the charts due to the slightly eratic arm.

At the plate, he's got great contact and eye (81/88 respectively) mediocre power 57, and OK splits (61/61).  51 speed

His durabiltiy and health are both ultra high (98/99) so he could be counted on to go every day.

thru his first 5 seasons he's OPSed .729 with a .350 OBP.

He's asking for $7.4 mil a year for 4 years to sign a LTC.

Option 1, you sign him now to that deal (makeup is high enough that he'll always be willing to sign an extension the last season of his contract and not hit the FA market)

Option 2, you take him to arbitration, let him hit FA as a Type A and see if perhaps his Type A status keeps him unsigned and perhaps drives down his price a few days into free agency.

For the contract experts out there, what kind of price do you think he'd command on the FA market?  Would he go above his asking pice in the average world?  Would his type A status keep him from getting signed right away as teams don't want to pay a high price and lose a draft pick?  Its an NL team who could take advantage of a defensively challenged catcher w/ low durability but great bat to use as a pinch hitter and late game sub when the game was out of reach.

You're right.  Depends a lot on the situation.    He allows you to carry 1 C.   If you can take advantage of that flexibility, you can pay him 7.4m.   If you can't, arb him, let him walk into FA and, if he's not getting signed due to his status, get him back at a discounted salary. 

I like those high high DUR C. He could start every game, great defensively and respectable with the stick. I'd lean toward signing him LT, but what MikeT said makes perfect sense as well.

You wont get his talent with a TYPE A pick..  There's no way he isnt signed as a FA by another team.. I sign him long term..

I'd lock him up to a long term deal. If you have the cap space I'd give hime either a 4 year deal @ 5.4 a year with a 8m bonus or a 5 year deal @ 5.4 a year with a 10m bonus. In years 2, 3, 4, and 5 he will look like a bargin @ 5.4 a year. Even if you just give him 7.4 a year for 4 years isn't a bad deal.

Good defensive catchers that can hit are hard to find. This guy is not great at throwing out runners but good enough in this game compared to others. His PB stats are good and with all other attributes in place sign him.

I'm pretty sure that patience determines if a player is willing to re-sign, not makeup.

Posted by shobob on 9/1/2012 10:04:00 AM (view original):
I'm pretty sure that patience determines if a player is willing to re-sign, not makeup.

It is, and at 60 with his OVR, I think he might want to test the market.

I think it's safe to say he'd cost far more than $7.4 as a free agent in World Riley.

yeah easy decision for me, lock him up

Def a LT sign. He's solid accros the board at a position that is hard to find top talent. Since he can go almost every game, you don't need to spend any money on his backup. You just need a guy to play once every couple of weeks or so.

I know I'm late to this party... I'd sign him, too, but the decision is easier if he's in the AL, since your back-up C (ejections, etc) can be a guy with 45 PC and a big enough bat to play every day at DH or at least platoon.

You would have to have 20m in scouting for HS and College and hope you get a first rounder(17-32) as part of the type A comp in order to recoup his value. I would definitely sign long term, at 7.4m he is very tradeable and you would get more than a strong DH and strong reliever, which is normally what you get with compensation picks.

Posted by shobob on 9/1/2012 10:04:00 AM (view original):
I'm pretty sure that patience determines if a player is willing to re-sign, not makeup.

You're correct, brain fart on my end.