2010-11 Player release Topic

seble
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Posted by katernberg on 4/19/2011 2:51:00 PM (view original):
Posted by seble on 4/19/2011 2:46:00 PM (view original):
Like I said, the system will never be perfect due to lack of stats.  We do the best we can given what's available.
I totally understand this. My argument is: A low post player can block every shot that is being shot in the post. But the guard (Especially before Zone was allowed) could and still can steal only his man's ball in 80-90% of possesions. So 2 steals should be counted like 3 or 4 Blocks at least..
The formula doesn't use the raw stats.  It's based on where that player's numbers fall compared to other players at that position in that season.  So a guard who is double the average in steals gets the same benefit as a center who is double the average in blocks. 
4/19/2011 3:00 PM
temporary1
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I like the defensive ratings at first blush.  Guys like Kevin Love and Zach Randolph had great seasons, but under the old D ratings would have been among the all-time great WIS powerhouse players.  They don't belong in that category, and the new D ratings balance out the risk/reward more appropriately.
4/19/2011 3:00 PM
clintgreely
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Posted by seble on 4/19/2011 2:34:00 PM (view original):
Lin is a case of high numbers in a small sample size.  He had a ridiculous Steal% and had the highest Block% for PGs.  Try not to get too caught up in the small sample guys.  Lin is barely even draft eligible and won't be of much use in a SimLeague.

For Russell, only one season during his career did the NBA pick All-defensive team (the one where he's a 90), so his ratings for previous seasons don't benefit from the award as they probably would if it had existed at that time.
Estimates are already being made with prior seasons for blocks & steals (didn't become official stats until 1973-74 season), so why not with the All-Defensive team? If Russell was on the All-Defensive team in his last year when he was past his prime, it's pretty reasonable to assume that he would have been there during his prime. Some other 60s players with defensive reputations are Nate Thurmond, KC Jones, Jerry West & Wilt (to some degree). It also always stuck me as odd that Jerry West averaged 2.6 spg in his final season as a 35 year old (1st season as official stat) but estimated spg in prior seasons are below that when his mintues per game are higher. 
4/19/2011 3:43 PM
malone9975
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What is up with this season's Howard?

A D rating of 73 after being named DPOY yet Wade is a 90 and Rose is a 76?  No one would every say that those two are a greater defensive force than Howard. 

4/19/2011 5:00 PM
eleibowitz
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Posted by malone9975 on 4/19/2011 5:00:00 PM (view original):

What is up with this season's Howard?

A D rating of 73 after being named DPOY yet Wade is a 90 and Rose is a 76?  No one would every say that those two are a greater defensive force than Howard. 

Hey Malone you might of missed this post from Seble

All players should now be available.

This year's players do not have any factoring for all-defense, so once those are announced that set of players may increase in defensive rating (including Howard).

The major significance in the new defensive ratings is the removal of defensive rebounding from consideration.  It's now based only on Steal%, Block%, Fouls, and Team Defensive FG%.  The All-Defense awards basically just provide a rating "floor", so for example a player named to the 1st  team can't have a rating below 90 for that season.   As always, no system for defense is going to be perfect due to the lack of stats, but hopefully these numbers better match your expectations.

Thanks for your patience and let me know if you see any issues. 
4/19/2011 5:07 PM
ashamael
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Seble,

I appreciate the revision of defensive ratings.  I firmly believe that defensive rebounding has no place in determining how good a player is at lowering an opposing player's fg%.   But there is one thing I want to address with something you said.  Please follow me here, as I am not trying to blast you or anyone in particular...

"What If Sports" is such a great concept.  The whole "What If?" element is incredible - it's what led me here in the first place (albeit for football, but that game sucks).  Through era normalization, you've tried to balance the eras, but the further you go, the further you imbalance them.  Older players already perform no where near their RL stats due to pace adjustment.  We've gone through the failure of fg% normalization before, so I won't bring that up again right now.  But now even defense is being taken away from the older guys.  Bill Russell is considered one of if not the greatest defender of all-time.  The guy practically invented the block shot (I know Mikan and the whole goal-tending thing, but Russell took it to the next level).  Yet the stats WIS has fabricated for him (steals and blocks) seem awfully low, especially considering the era.  The guy could have averaged 7 or 8 blocks a game and still only been a 5% blk% player because of the pace of the game.  And I think that that's about what he did.  So, you have no problem fabricating a lowball number for blocks and steals, yet you have a problem with fabricating an all-defensive team?  Russell would have been first team every single year had their been an all-defensive team, so why not just go ahead and do it?

It undermines the sim's credibility to have Bill Russell's defense rated so low.  I know it's a singled out point to make, but we're talking about the guy they named the nba final's mvp trophy after... he didn't get it for being an offensive powerhouse.

I think you need to do some serious work to the older players.  They were good when per minute stats were driving the engine, but now with advanced stats, they just don't keep up.  Yet you're still using fabricated total/per-minute stats to base those advanced stats around.  You need to be a little more consistent here.


I realize I just wasted the last five minutes of my life, but hey, I feel better.
4/19/2011 5:34 PM (edited)
ncmusician_7
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Seble, it doesn't make sense for there to be a drop off in defensive ability for players before the 68-69 season (especially when they were past their prime in 68-69).  If you're going to estimate stats for the older players, then estimate the all-defensive teams also.
4/19/2011 5:47 PM
dj.inc.
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We have been through this before...you'll get nowhere w/logic.......
4/19/2011 6:24 PM
eleibowitz
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Posted by ncmusician_7 on 4/19/2011 5:47:00 PM (view original):
Seble, it doesn't make sense for there to be a drop off in defensive ability for players before the 68-69 season (especially when they were past their prime in 68-69).  If you're going to estimate stats for the older players, then estimate the all-defensive teams also.
Sable to ask you to create all-defence team pre 1968 is something you may or may not want to do. But with Bill Russell at the very least you need to make an exception. We appreciate you creating the new defensive ratings but if you want an accurate SIM you need Russell to be one of the best defenders ever. Which everyone knows he is.
4/19/2011 7:04 PM
dh555
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Seble....hook me up with a few 6 packs of simbball and ill give you a full players list of what all the defensive ratings should be....it would look a lot better then these ratings...iguodalas d ratings are waaaay off and the bill russell thing is a travesty....seriously you should le me do them...wont cost you any money
4/19/2011 7:30 PM
felonius
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Posted by seble on 4/19/2011 2:37:00 PM (view original):
Bol had the very high block numbers, but he also didn't foul very much in relation to those high blocks.

not sure that logic is sound

some very good defensive players fouled alot (because they were the guys drawing the tough match-ups) while some very bad defensive players hardly fouled at all (because, well, they werent bothering to guard anyone)

and the Russell ratings are a joke

4/19/2011 7:47 PM (edited)
malone9975
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Seble,

As a customer I have a few questions:

Why are the ast% and reb% numbers different here than they are on basketball-reference.com?

Why can't there be a logical override to defense (Bol for instance...I watched him get abused by every physical center for years)?

Why can't we have variable league size like baseball does?

What do you think of clutch factor as a possible statistic?

Thank you!
4/19/2011 8:09 PM
longtallbrad
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Variable league size absolutely.  I'm among the regular owners who've been pushing that for years.

Clutch factor would be great, but isn't as high a priority for me as some other things and I don't know if there's a readily available data set to get started with.

But back on topic...
4/19/2011 9:33 PM
jtimpa
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Didn't we go through this thing with Bill Russell last time he did this?  C'mon, 70def for Bill Russell?  That's a joke.  0 cred rating for that.  How can anyone actually believe that is even remotely right?  Yeah, Maunte Bol is the greatest defender of all time.  Not Bill Russell.  Get a freakin' clue. 

4/19/2011 9:49 PM
longtallbrad
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I heartily agree with ash, nc, eleibowitz, malone and others.  Bol was a very subpar man defender.  I understand that his insane block numbers pump up his value as a defender in this sim, but it still wouldn't be a bad use of a "logical override" mandate because classifying him as an amazing defender when he patently wasn't really does take a bite out of the WIS brand.

However, I could live with Bol being where he is if the vastly more iconic Russell were valued properly.  His defense absolutely revolutionized the game of basketball.  I can't think of a clearer justification for manually adjusting a nonsensical output of the sim algorithms than ensuring that Russell gets his due as a defender.
4/19/2011 9:52 PM
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