I'm in my very first season.  I'm about 35 games into the season.  I've got 14 million on Intl Scouting and am getting lots of guys proposed to me.  I've been reluctant to bite.  The best prospect I've seen so far is a 18 year old SS with a 74 potential.  He was signed by another team for $7million.  That seems a bit high.  I hate to spend such a huge chunck of change on a 62/74 SS.  Do players sometimes exceed their projections?  i.e. is it possible that the SS could turn out to be a solid 80+ SS?  Or is he realistically just going to be a 74? and if so, is a $7million signing bonus reasonable?

Another team spent like $5 million for a 54/62 RP prospect.  Another team spent $15 million on a 60/74 SP Prospect.  Am I being too tight with my money?  I guess what I'm saying is that for someone to spend in excess of $10 million signing you would expect a player to have a higher ceiling.  That begs my first question, are these low ceilings I'm seeing just becuase my league scouting budget and international budgets are both only $14 million each and I don't see the full picture?

Any suggestions would be most welcome.

Those players are commanding that much money because, in the end, you don't get to take it with you to next year.  If you have 20 mill in your prospect budget, you are going to spend between 3 and 7 mill (probably) on ML talent in the Amateur Draft.  That leaves 13-17 million (more if you have extra payroll budget to transfer) that's only use is on International Free Agents, so getting a ML caliber SS and Reliever isn't a bad use of that money.  Star-Caliber IFA's will obviously go for more (I've seen as much as 34.6 million).  The strategy is in what you think you can get for the budget you have.

They also command that much money because there is no real bust factor like in real life. In real life, it's more like purchasing a lottery ticket where you don't know how much it will be worth. Here, you can pay $10 because you know it's a $10 ticket.

Plus just dont look at their over all rating you have to look at their splits they may have some bigtime number potential there.

It depends on  your world. If you play in a world with drastic imbalances and/or one that supports tanking, you could have several people with 30M+ in prospect budget every year and IFA signings can be really out of whack. In general, I tend to have a lot of money into IFA because I zero-out advanced and budget low in high school/college scouting. Know your league and the other owners, In Happy Jack, there are 8 people who have transferred budget to have more than 20M in prospects, and two (including myself) with over 30M in payroll. Obviously, this is going to inflate salaries for many IFAs, especially toward the end of the season when people who have missed out on the big guys need to do something with that money before it goes to waste. In No Quitters (which I would consider to be a higher-level, more competitive league as a whole than HJ), I am the only one so far who has transferred to have over 20M, so obviously the bonuses will be a little lower.

But, in my experience, here is a general guideline:

Pitchers: Aces starters (200+ innings, 80+ control, splits, etc.) are very rare and will almost certainly go for 20+M. Essentially, if one of these guys pops up, most will bid their entire budget and then it just comes down to how much money the 2nd-highest bidder has in prospects. Even guys who are starter/reliever "tweeners" who might only pitch 150 innings or so in a season will still command close to 20M, but usually fall in the 14-18M range, which is also where starters who aren't quite ace material tend to fall. Ace relievers will tend to go anywhere from 8-18M, depending on how many innings they will be able to throw. 4th or 5th-starter types tend to cost around 10-12M. 8-10M for a starter and 6-8M for a reliever seems to be the lowest that sure-fire major league players will go. You can definitely still get guys cheaper who can make the ML, it's just either luck (because everybody ran out of money or didn't see a particular guy), or you are picking guys with obvious flaws who need to hit all of their projections perfectly to make an impact, or guys with really low health, etc.

A brief summary of some of the pitchers I've signed over the past few years:
No Quitters:
S10: 3.1M reliever with 70/20 DUR/STA and great control but who's vR never got over 50 and topped out at AAA
S11: 5.2M for a 30/60 DUR/STA tweener who will be in the majors next year, but only as a Long B guy. He'll be in the majors until his second arbitration contract demand, at which point I'll release him.
S12: 600k for a 70/12 DUR/STA reliever who would be a pretty good LOOGY, but that role doesn't seem to work in HBD, so he's probably going to top out at AAA, with a vR of only 51. For only 600k, a risk worth taking.
S13: 8M for a 4th/5th-starter type who I traded. Control might not break 60, but with solid splits, he'll definitely make the majors and do okay.
S14: 700k for a reliever kind of like the guy I signed in S12 who probably won't make the majors either. 2.5M for a starter with really crappy control, but nice other ratings who may actually make the ML if his control keeps developing another few points. 8.4M for a real nice 30/50 DUR/STA type who should be a very effective reliever.
S15: 7.8M for a solid, but not spectacular, setup guy. 3.4M for a starter who's vR will probably never get high enough to get him more than an injury call-up to the majors. 1.6M to a reliever who might be a  borderline ML player, but I'll probably find better options in FA and never promote him past AAA.
S16: 16.4M for a 30/65 tweener-starter who is ML-ready and has ace potential if he hits his projections, which he probably won't since he's already 22.

Happy Jack
S14: 800k for a reliever who will almost certainly make the majors. Not a star by any means, but I was shocked to get a sure-fire ML player for so cheap.
S15: 10.8M for a starter who seems unlikely to be more than a mop-up guy. 8.4M for a 5th-starter with nice DUR/STA. Won't be great in the ML, but will be at least signed through his first arb demand. 2.5M for a long reliever with nice splits but crappy control who probably won't make the ML.
S16: 11.6M for a solid 2nd/3rd starter. I was shocked he went so cheap, but he popped up early in the year and I think people were waiting for the bigger fish. Signing him cost me the chance at a 20M+ guy, but I felt that the value was too good to pass up. It may have been a mistake as a significantly better player was signed for 24M that I might have been able to sign. Time will tell.

1B/DH/LF/RF- These seem to fall into two groups: the guys who will almost surely OPS .850+ as a major-leaguer will go for at least 15M. The guys that will be decent, but not spectacular bats, seem to go for 5M or less. I don't see a whole lot of these guys signed in the 6-14M range, unless they have a low health or DUR rating that scares some owners away.I got an above-average fielding RF with 57/82/83/71/91 hitting ratings (so he should OPS close to .850 in the majors) for 12M, but he only has 76 DUR and 67 Health.

Catchers tend to be a more exaggerated versions of this. The elite guys will command a huge price but all the others will tend to be pretty cheap. For guys who can mash though, be prepared to shell out some cash. I signed a C for 18M who is an absolute monster against righties, but not super-strong against lefties and whose DUR is topped out at about 67. Expensive for a platoon player, but possibly worth it considering the scarcity of good defensive catchers who can hit.

SS/CF- Want a guy who can really hit? 20M+. Want a guy with a decent major-league bat? 10-15M. Even an average fielding shortstop with a below-average bat will command 5M+. I did manage to find a 83/84 range/glove CF who's not a total disaster at the plate for 1.5M, and he's on my ML team in No Quitters, but he's purely a 24/25th man on the bench. I've signed 4 of these guys in the 1-3M range and two of them won't make the majors and this guy, along with another, look to be bench players/defensive replacements.

I signed a SS with a great glove but so-so bat for 9M, and another with an excellent glove and okay bat, but who's also a pure platoon player (with 16 vL, 93 vR, one of the craziest platoon splits I've ever seen) for 1.5M. I traded both though.

2B/3B- Hard to tell, because people put different values on defense at these positions. For the most part, probably comparable to how the SS/CF's go, I signed a 3B for 9.5M who turned out to be ML quality, but nothing spectacular and won't be resigned after his 2nd arb demand.


There's kind of two different IFA strategies:

(1) The "one impact guy" strategy. Either wait until after draft signing or estimate beforehand how much you will need to sign your picks, and then be prepared to spend everything else in your budget on one guy. The risk here is either going in too early and missing out on a better guy later, or else waiting too long for a top guy who never appears (or waiting for that top guy and then getting outbid by somebody else with more room) and then overpaying for middling guys at the end of the season. Can also be risky because even with 16-20M in International Scouting, you won't see everybody. I also tend to think it's more worthwhile to grab an IFA early in the year so they have that full season to develop rather than late in the year where they are basically wasting a year of development though. That may be wild speculation though.

(2) The "value" strategy. Bid on every (or most) quality IFA until you get to the point where it's not 'worth it" any more. A great way to stock your farm system with solid major league players as you can often grab 2 ML-quality players every year with this method. Unfortunately, you will probably never get an All-Star caliber player this way as you will likely not have enough in your budget when that mega-star is found. I tend to lean toward this method, and just be prepared to go all-in for a top quality player if they show early in the season.



I hope that helped.

great post!

I agree completely with jtrinsey. If you decide to play the international market (and for the most part I tend to stay away from it), you need to decide between going for broke on one big guy or spreading your money out. But if you save your moeny and thatgreatplayer never appears - you are screwed. I will go for broke early in the season if a stud appears, otherwise play the value game. And if bidding gets beyond value early on in the season, you may get lucky and be the only one left with money for a late stud.

However, as I said, I stay away from internationals. Besides the bidding being ridiculous, look at the cost: you not only have to have your 20 million in prospect payroll, you also need 14-18 million in international scouting and maybe an extra 20 million in player payroll that can convert over to extra prospect budget. So in order to sign the "stud" international to a 28 million dollar signing bonus, you actually pay 14 of your 20 prospect budget (holding 6 back for the draft), 28 (transferred player payroll to get your prospect budget up to 34), and 18 (international scouting budget). that equals 64 million dollars, or over 1/3 of your total budget for the season to sign ONE PLAYER. Put that same 64 million into player payroll and you could sign the top two free agents to max contracts and not have to wait 2-3 seasons for them to develop. It just isnt worth it to me to pay over 60 million for one guy.

Yes, but the value of owning a stud rookie far exceeds to value of owning a stud signed in FA. Say a top of the line, MVP-caliber IFA goes for 25M. So you had to have 20M in prospects initially, transfer another 10M and have 16M in scouting. So it cost you 46M to sign that guy. You wait 2-3 years and then he is in the big leagues, where he will cost ~1.3M over 4 years, 7.3M over 5 years, 15.3M over 6 years, and 65.3M over 11 years. Add the 46M to sign and you are looking at 110M for 11 years of an MVP-caliber player.

Whereas in the FA market, you are looking at an MVP-caliber player going for 75-100M or so over 5 years, with one or two of those 5 usually being on the back end where the guy has declined a little bit. The initial investment for IFAs is huge, but you are rewarded with 5 years where he basically plays for free.

This is a good post as it relates two big things that new owners don't necessarily understand about this game.

1.  Using overall rating to evaluate a player is not a good idea.  You must look at all the rating categories to determine if the player is good or not.  High durability and mediocre ratings in fielding and sub par hitting ratings can still put a player in the 77-80 overall range but he'll be a crummy player compared to an 75 rated 1B.

2.  International Free Agents are spendy.  To get the best ones it will cost you $20m or more (almost certainly more in most worlds).  I have seen a number of IFAs go for $40m+ in bonus money.

I think it depends on the world a bit, some worlds don't often see IFA go much over 20 mil.  In plumpyrules we had a guy just go for like $30 mil, but in the 16 seasons prior, we had one guy go for $25 mil during ST and perhaps a small handful or maybe even no others go for more than $20 mil.  There have been a number in the $15 mil + range.  I know there are worlds that don't allow anyone to move money to their prospect buget, so it evens the playing field b/w those w/ high picks and those w/ lower picks but still want an IFA or 2.

How long, if they ever implemented the actual plan was the limits in place on how much money could be transferred.  Seemed like a good idea to me.  I took over a team at the midway point this year in another world and was able to transfer $42 mil to my prospect buget from my player payroll to give me $41 mil in prospect buget.  Take out the $11 mil for the 3rd overall pick and another mil or 2 for the rest of the draft class  and I had about $28 mil to offer IFAs.  Unfortunetly I got there a little too late to offer any of the early studs, and as no others were showing up I went after about 6 guys that will either fill out a major league bench, a very solid righty platooon catcher, a stud 2b w/ durability issues that will be a beast in playoffs one day, an innings eating pitcher w/ control issues that should work well as a long man and the vsR half of an OF platoon.  Overall, I think the guys I could signed will do me better in the long run than 1 true stud for $30 mil.  One thing to keep in mind, that there are often trades that go down where an owner is willing to move off a star player w/ a large salary just to get out from under his contract but would like some ML caliber prospects in return.  Getting a few of those in the IFA market could help you make a sizable trade a few years down the road.

WIS should make IFAs future performance more unpredictable, to be more in parallel with reality.  That would help eliminate the absurdity of $20MM+ IFAs.  This is clearly a problem.  Here's the highest paid MLB IFAs:

Michael Ynoa, 16, RHP, 2008, Athletics, D.R., $4,250,000
Miguel Sano, 16, SS, 2009, Twins, D.R., $3,150,000
Gary Sanchez, 16, C, 2009, Yankees, D.R., $3,000,000
Rafael Rodriguez, 16, OF, 2008, Giants, D.R., $2,550,000
Yorman Rodriguez, 16, OF, 2008, Reds, VZA, $2,500,000
Wily Mo Peña, 17, OF, 1999, Yankees, D.R., $2,440,000
Joel Guzman, 16, SS, 2001, Dodgers, D.R., $2,255,000
Angel Villalona, 16, 3B, 2006, Giants, D.R., $2,100,00
Juan Duran, 16, OF, 2008, Reds, D.R., $2,000,000
Adys Portillo, 16, RHP, 2008, Padres, VZA, $2,000,000
Guillermo Pimental, 16, CF, 2009, Mariners, D.R., $2,000,000
Jose Vincio, 16, SS, 2009, Red Sox, D.R., $1,950,000
Miguel Cabrera, 16, IF, 1999, Marlins, VZA, $1,800,000

I'm just saying that IFAs getting $20-40MM in bonus money make this game more unrealistic.  Not that matching MLB's precedent is our primary goal here, but this becomes silly in my view.  One solution is to make those type of players much less of a sure thing.  Another would be to lower overall budgets or limit the amount one can apply towards IFAs (or both).