aeRR: Season 52 Topic

This thread is for the GLV/MIAA recruits. The ae-Recruiting Rankings are certainly going to be more accurate than the College Insider rankings. When evaluating players, I take into account primarily their skills in relation to the skills that (I believe) are most important to win games in the engine today. In some/most occasions, I also take into account the system they will be playing in college.

The formula I used is far from perfect. I made it up off the top of my head. I first scored all the recruits (I was able to get ~90% of states after getting sitemails and screen shots from other players who scouted some states I didn’t scout—I try to mention if I am guesstimating how good a player is without knowledge of potential) on a scale of 1-5 stars. There were no 5 stars, only one 4.5 star, a handful of 4 stars, and only a few under 2 stars. Recruits certainly weren’t a perfect bell curve, but most of them were very close and thus a lot of 3 stars were given (+/- ½ star).

Then, I didn’t want to reward teams for having a great deal of scholarships open, but they shouldn’t be penalized either (after all, it doesn’t hurt to have more players, I just didn’t want it to be too strong).  I decided that there were diminishing returns among class size (you have less scholarships next year, distro limitations, etc.) so I added the stars of the top 3 players in a class (no coincidence that a quarter of the roster size is the number I’m using as well) and then added HALF of the fourth and fifth best players. Ideally, I’d probably do like 60% of the fourth player, 40% of the fifth player, 20% of the sixth player—but I’m doing enough math as is!

 

12/2/2010 5:33 PM

So, without further ado, here are the first aeRR (Season 52):


1.     UMSL [C-] 13.5 stars (6 players)

There was a tie for the top spot and I gave the nod to UMSL based on sheer quantity. Brip87 had a bunch of open scholarships and used them pretty wisely. The class is led by two great big men—4 star Jared Cates and 3.5 star Robert Reid. Cates is a strong rebounder with a good touch from the charity stripe; Reid is a super athlete and a defensive stopper. They are a match as good as Laurel and Hardy. The class rounds out with a few 3 star guards: Hathaway is of note, a quick guard who already possesses a rarity in this newest engine: strong floor vision.

 

2.     Truman St. [A] 13.5 stars (5 players)

Tied for the top spot and hailing from Kirksville, Missiouri, Truman State signed 5 players of varying quality. Leland Rocco, stolen from the Land of Lincoln (considered GLV territory?!) is a 4 star big who shines in athleticism and defense. If his work ethic and stamina don’t hold him back, I’ve pegged Rocco as the perfect role-playing big man, shutting down the opposition’s best low post threat. Brown and Natail are strong SFs—if the work ethic was better here we’d be looking at 4 star players instead of 3.5 star ones. As a small forward with many areas to improve, the poor work ethic will hinder the improvement of both players. A couple of jucos will serve to eat minutes and balance kmason’s classes.

 

3.     SW Baptist [A+] 13 stars (4 players)

Four new Christians have been anointed in Bolivar. The class is led by two juco SFs (4 stars) who are world-class athletes and defenders. The only freshman in the class is George Keeler, a 6’8” well-rounded big from Fall City, Nebraska who earns a 3.5 star rating. Coming in as an ineligible is David Whitaker, a role playing Center who enjoys crashing the boards.


4.  Missouri Western St. [D+] 12.25 stars (5 players)

Uglyskunk’s first class in the MIAA features a mix of upperclassmen and capable high school recruits. Cline is a one year loaner from CSU-Pueblo. He’ll probably play right away and slow the bleeding for the Griffons, losers of 19 straight. Edward Remaley is a solid juco big out of a Community College in the ‘Lou who will aid Cline immediately. Even at a D+ prestige, Uglyskunk was able to secure two 3.5 star players—Harold Gidney, an athletic SG destined to play SF, and Donald Williams, a quick guard with a nice touch from the charity stripe.

5.     UCM [C-] 12 stars (5 players)

Central Missouri grabbed 5 players to secure the ffith spot in the ranking. The gem of the class is likely a two-year player from C-Cubed (Central Community College). Ryan Lavigne is a defensive stopper whose hard work should make an immediate impact on the Mules. Leo Davis is the team’s best four-year recruit, a monstrous (6’11”, 248) center with a nose for rebounds. UCM also grabbed a couple of capable 3 star guards in Belkowski and Staten.

6.    SIUE [A+] 12 stars (4 players)

The rich get richer in Edwardsville. Victor Medford is the only recruit that this writer ranked above 4 stars in the MIAA or GLV this season. He comes in ready to defend—an exceptional speed/athleticism split for a guard, combined with great defense, and an offensive game that is ripe to improve. It may be a few seasons before he can score, but the aeRR have obtained inside information that he’s got unlimited potential in passing and shooting. If Medford’s laziness doesn’t hold him back, he’ll stop turning it over and start scoring sooner rather than later. Said coach_billyg, “I think its safe to say he is hands-down the best defender I've ever had.” A 6’8” farm boy out of Wellman, IA (population 1400 people) is a SF who would rather scrap for rebounds and take charges than score. He is the next best in the class at 3.5 stars. This publication was unable to obtain complete information on Adam Henderson, but with his low work ethic and his (assumed) many areas to improve, he’s been pinned as a 3 star recruit with a big question mark. Isaac Descastro is a 2 star charity case out of Tennessee whose father, Milton, gives huge sums of money to the SIUE program—Isaac hopes to pass his way into some playing time by the time he’s an upperclassman.

 

7.   Washburn [A] 11.75 stars (4 players)

Washburn’s program has rebounded very nicely from the recruiting violations several seasons ago and has endured the coaching carousel of the offseason while charley contemplated retirement. He’s back to cause havoc on the GLV with a worthy class barely a notch below the #4 and 5 classes. The best of the best is Roy Prentice, a quick point guard homegrown in Missouri. His skillset is eerily reminiscent of Victor Medford, with a couple of caveats—he’s more ready to play, but his lack of conditioning in charley’s fastbreak/press system may hold him back from his true potential. When asked about Prentice, charley had this to say: “I had other very good options, but he is a stud.” Ehlert (3 stars) and Miles (3.5 stars) are two solid bigs who bring similar, well-rounded skills to the table.

 

8.     Lewis [B] 11.75 stars (5 players)

Storm brings 5 recruits of varying quality to Romeoville this offseason. M-squared is the pride of the bunch. McBryde, an undersized (6’4”) power forward out of the Lonestar state is a 3.5 star recruit that would be considered a 4 star recruit with just a little more ambition. If McBryde gets anywhere near his potential, look for him to be an All-Conference caliber player. A pair of Senior transfers come over from D1 schools to help right away. Leonard Smith is looking for the ‘big fish, small pond’ effect in his last year of eligibility. He comes over from Colgate already knowing Lewis’ O and D. The publication was unable to obtain proper information on Christopher Sampson, a Center from Alabama, but his potential development could tell us how good this class really is.

 

9.     Kentucky Wesleyn [A-] 9.5 stars (3 players)

Sgerdes brings in 3 players and comes just short of 10 stars in our ranking system. The best of the bunch is definitely Eric Grace, a big man who can do it all. He earns 4 stars and the publication feels he may have All-American potential. Joining him are Richard Ivy, a 2.5 star guard from Lew Wallace HS who brings a great deal of ‘street smarts’ hailing from the former Murder Capital of America. The strength of the class is reliant on the third recruit, an ineligible 3 star guard out of Tennessee.

 

10.      St. Joes [B+] 9 stars (3 players)

Rounding out the top 10 is St. Joseph’s. Very little information was available on this mysterious class, but they bring in all 3 star recruits to don the Pumas’ purple. Rene Bruno looks like he could be the best of the bunch, but the jury is still out on the Italian’s skills and potential. Lucas Henry’s development hinges on his willingness to work and get in shape. And finally, the strength of the class relies on an ineligible guard from just a few miles down the road in Saint John—Robert Urban. Urban can play either wing position if he clears eligibility requirements and he will help shake up the program in Rensselaer. Say the coach, “If Urban shows up, I’ll be in a good spot to try out this new method.” We can only speculate…

12/2/2010 5:45 PM
great job Ae - thanks for taking the time.
12/2/2010 6:16 PM
Posted by storm71 on 12/2/2010 6:16:00 PM (view original):
great job Ae - thanks for taking the time.
+1
12/2/2010 6:25 PM
I made the list, woo! Good stuff. Thanks for writing.
12/2/2010 6:54 PM
nice job AE. great detail and analysis. well done.
12/2/2010 7:38 PM
Nice jones, pretty sick to put this together.
12/2/2010 11:11 PM
How did my class not make it.....
12/2/2010 11:52 PM
swift, you were #11 obv!...
12/3/2010 12:40 AM
Urban goes JUCO, my class turns to mush.  :-)
12/3/2010 1:47 PM
Great stuff, but I think you underestimate Speicher a bit (well, I'm hoping at least). He's going to be a fantastic defender and shooter. If his passing was 20 points higher and his speed wasn't capped, he would have been a mid-level division 1 guy. But I can work with those flaws :)
12/3/2010 11:38 PM
Speicher is obviously not terrible, but guards with those skills are a dime a dozen. Low passing just hurts everyone else in your offense and in basketball a missed shot has more value than a turnover. Also, the speed is just a little low on my baseline for guards, 80 or so would be adequate. 

Yea, he's a bit of a different player, I'm sure he'll work out fine and his defense will be good for the press, but ultimately there may have been better choices out there with an A prestige.
12/4/2010 4:23 AM
I think it'll be interesting to see how things end up, so I've decided that after next season I will re-visit these rankings and rank the top 5(ish) players in each conference, visit where they ended up within their teams in the rankings, and possibly even rank the teams and see if those rankings coincide with the recruiting rankings. They will probably be pretty inaccurate, specifically because of things like jucos and RSs.
2/22/2011 3:06 PM
Interesting that you liked Davis the best out of my 4 year kids that class. I always thought Belkowski was gonna be the best out of the group but Timothy Staten takes the cake 100%.
3/6/2011 1:15 PM
Looks like Jones was pretty accurate with my class at least, ranking 2nd and 4 of the 5 guys were seniors this past season with 3 being starters on a Final 4 team. Actually think Jones udnerrated his own player as Keeler turned out to be a beast and was the CPOY in one of the best D2 conferences ever. And the 2 SFs were the starter and backup on Jones' back to back national championshps.
3/31/2011 5:50 PM
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aeRR: Season 52 Topic

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