My Western Illinois team is ranked right now at 7th in the nation in DI yet is on the bubble. Shouldn't I be lock even if I lose my first round of the conference tournament tomorrow because I'm right now in the top 10?

With your RPI at 59 and SOS in the 160's it willbe tough. You did befifit from a weak conference and going 16-0 is impressive. But I would imagine that only one team is going to get in from your conference, and that team will be the conference winner. You might sneek in if you do not win the conference tourny, but it will require things to fall your way with the other CT's. Just my opinion.

Ranking has very little to do with getting into the tournament, but it can help with your seeding. You're on the bubble because of an RPI in the low 50s and the fact that you haven't beaten a decent team on the road.

Win CT or go to PIT.

It would be a shame if he didn't make it. He did go out of his way to schedule a tough nonconference schedule and he did end up beating some tourney worthy teams. The RPI system is not foolproof.

Quote: Originally Posted By thewizard2 on 12/01/2009It would be a shame if he didn't make it. He did go out of his way to schedule a tough nonconference schedule and he did end up beating some tourney worthy teams. The RPI system is not foolproof.

How do you figure that? I only see 3 games against top 25 rpi teams. Just because you can game the rankings system doesn't mean you should be able to be a lock for the NT.

Quote: Originally Posted By zhawks on 12/01/2009

Quote: Originally Posted By thewizard2 on 12/01/2009
It would be a shame if he didn't make it. He did go out of his way to schedule a tough nonconference schedule and he did end up beating some tourney worthy teams. The RPI system is not foolproof.

How do you figure that? I only see 3 games against top 25 rpi teams. Just because you can game the rankings system doesn't mean you should be able to be a lock for the NT.

Yeah, but 6 of his non-conference opponents had Top 100 RPI's. Of the 4 games that weren't against Top 100 opponents, 3 of those are SimAI teams that had human coaches last season (Bucknell, Detroit, No. Illinois), when the games were scheduled. It's pretty clear that he wasn't aiming for a cream-puff schedule. He was attempting to put together a non-conference slate of all Top 100 teams.

Sure I guess but if you don't want a creampuff schedule then get mostly bcs level schools - if you choose schools like Bucknell, Detroit, No. IL, you are asking for guys to leave and give you a simmy on your schedule, sure he might have been trying to not have a creampuff schedule but he sure as heck didn't try to have a tough schedule.

Quote: Originally Posted By zhawks on 12/01/2009Sure I guess but if you don't want a creampuff schedule then get mostly bcs level schools - if you choose schools like Bucknell, Detroit, No. IL, you are asking for guys to leave and give you a simmy on your schedule, sure he might have been trying to not have a creampuff schedule but he sure as heck didn't try to have a tough schedule

Scheduling is a balancing act. Ideally, you're trying to play the worst possible school that's going to have the best possible record. Sometimes that means BCS level schools, sometimes it doesn't. Is it a risk to schedule non-BCS schools, in that the coach may move up? Yes. So you have to look at the school's history, and make a judgment to weigh that risk. And in this case, the coaches at Bucknell, Detroit and No. Illinois had been at their respective schools for 8, 22 and 19 seasons, respectively. Long term guys. I would have considered those low-risk for coaches leaving. He ran into very bad luck that all three bolted after long tenures.

He also could have scheduled more than 4 road games in non-con.

Quote: Originally Posted By acn24 on 12/01/2009He also could have scheduled more than 4 road games in non-con

I completely agree. That was probably his biggest mistake.

Quote: Originally posted by acn24 on 12/01/2009Ranking has very little to do with getting into the tournament, but it can help with your seeding.  You're on the bubble because of an RPI in the low 50s and the fact that you haven't beaten a decent team on the road.

win-loss record has a very significant impact on both tourney seeding and rankings. so, rankings are not useless in predicting if you will make the tourney.

to the OP, you are probably in because of your record. but not necc with a bad loss in the CT. if you look at your schedule, the w-l record of your opponents, which is 50% of you rpi (not exactly, as 50% is the weighted w-l of your opponents, and the overall w-l does not include home or away), its pretty bad. most have losing records, all in all, you are probably a little under 50% there. which is not going to do your rpi any favors. you probably want to get in a conference that is not so horrible, if you are looking for a high rpi in d1.

Quote: Originally posted by zhawks on 12/01/2009Sure I guess but if you don't want a creampuff schedule then get mostly bcs level schools - if you choose schools like Bucknell, Detroit, No. IL, you are asking for guys to leave and give you a simmy on your schedule, sure he might have been trying to not have a creampuff schedule but he sure as heck didn't try to have a tough schedule.

the problem with mid and low level bcs schools is despite being higher quality than plenty of other guys, their poor conference records are going to mess up your rpi. i won't play a mid/low level bcs school unless i really like the coach. and if you don't have a really great team, which he doesn't (no offense or anything), playing a bunch of high level bcs schools is going to mess you up bad.

Then he shouldn't schedule the mid to low level bcs teams, go on the road play 5-6 big time schools. I don't know how that schedule can be considered tough, regardless of who what schools.

Yeah I know I don't have a great team, this is pretty much just a stop before I move on to a bigger school. I was just hoping I would be a lock for the NT this year so that I could make a move to a bigger school next season.

So is your guys' scheduling advice in the future just get more road games? Because I think the professor was dead-on as far as my OOC scheduling strategy. I was trying to play some top level teams at home in the hopes that my HC advantage would get me at least 1 win while getting wins on the road against potentially lesser opponents who would still do very well in their conference. And those 3 coaches leaving hurt me too.