Decline at age 28 Topic

spudpicker
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I was wondering if this is a new phenomenon, where a player turns 28 and his range declines. I noticed this with two different players on two different teams, both had 20 mill training and makeup was 76 and 81 for each player.

It seems odd to begin decline in your prime, so I'm interested to hear if this is new or has happened and I'm just noticing it... and if anyone else thinks that's maybe a bit too soon.
12/1/2009 11:36 AM
sergei91
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for the most part, in hbd, 27 is when guys peak
12/1/2009 11:38 AM
torrone
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Just as guys can improve after the 'peak' year of 27, so they can decline. you don't like to see it happening at 28, but it can.
12/1/2009 11:48 AM
spudpicker
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I understand they peak at 27, but their prime is supposed to be 27-30. I just figured most guys would start their decline *after* their prime.

It's not so much I don't like seeing it happen at 28, I just need to adjust to it since I hadn't noticed it before.
12/1/2009 11:50 AM
moustachee
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i've seen it happen a few times, but it's usually a 1 point decline and then hold steady for 3 or 4 years (at least that's how i've experienced it)
12/1/2009 12:17 PM
jimmystick
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I've never seen it happen with guys with makeup that high, but I've seen it happen often with makeup in the 40's and 50's.

Speed, range, and power (for hitters) and velocity, stamina, and durability (for pitchers) seem to be the first ratings to dip.
12/2/2009 6:30 PM
zbrent716
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Quote: Originally Posted By spudpicker on 12/01/2009
I understand they peak at 27, but their prime is supposed to be 27-30. I just figured most guys would start their decline *after* their prime.

It's not so much I don't like seeing it happen at 28, I just need to adjust to it since I hadn't noticed it before.

Where did you get the bolded information from?
12/2/2009 7:03 PM
iain
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12/2/2009 7:33 PM
spudpicker
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"Where did you get the bolded information from?"

I've heard it over and over for years now, but here's one source:

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/flb/story?page=age27myth

Here's another that says the peak is 29:

http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2009/11/how-do-players-age/

And here's another good article about it:

http://dberri.wordpress.com/2007/04/21/it-aint-necessarily-so/
12/3/2009 1:55 PM
snake_p
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Quote: Originally Posted By spudpicker on 12/03/2009
"Where did you get the bolded information from?"

I've heard it over and over for years now, but here's one source:

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/flb/story?page=age27myth

Here's another that says the peak is 29:

http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2009/11/how-do-players-age/

And here's another good article about it:

http://dberri.wordpress.com/2007/04/21/it-aint-necessarily-so/

So your original post was about RL, not HBD? That wasn't clear, it sounded more like an HBD question.

Or are you changing horses in the middle of the stream?
12/3/2009 1:58 PM
spudpicker
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My original post was clearly about HBD and my comment that prime age for players is 27-30 is supported by real life evidence.

Much of the game is based on real life and when I started, everyone suggested I act like the game *is* just like in real life. So you'll need to excuse me if my line of thinking originates from how things are in the true MLB.
12/3/2009 2:05 PM
iain
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Quote: Originally Posted By iain on 12/02/2009
12/3/2009 2:07 PM
plague
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Real life peak means the average of when a player has his best seasons, that does not mean that their skills do not start dropping at a particular time. A player could easily see his skills drop from age 27 to 28 to 29 and still have those be his 3 best seasons.
12/3/2009 2:07 PM
MikeT23
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Some learned skills continue to increase into a player's 30s.

Raw skills begin to diminish at 28-30. If you're older than 30, you probably know when your physically peak was. And it wasn't at 34.
12/3/2009 2:38 PM
bighead34
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spud, it is most likely a few isolated incidents...you're basically correct about the average prime for players, but that doesn't mean some can't peak in their mid 20s while others peak in their mid 30s...and as i understand it, defense, in RL and HBD, tends to peak earlier than other skills and begin decline earlier as well
12/3/2009 2:40 PM
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