Yorvit Sanchez....AAA or Major league starter?

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=2385282

Do you start him in AAA, make him a major league #3 or #4 right now, or wait 25 games or so and then move him up?

Terrific AAA year last year.

And...what do you look at when evaluating pitchers? Especially minor league pitchers? It would seem that the L/R split might be the most important thing...and then control. But I don't know. Sanchez's L/R splits project to be great.

Keith...oh...as always....Thanks for sharing with a rookie.

Unless you think you'll be in contention this season, there's no reason to start his arb clock running right away. Keep him in the minors to start the season.

End of the rotation ML starter. I'd wait to move him up though so you can reduce his ML time in service, thus delaying arbitration.

When looking at ML pitchers, control, vL/R splits and pitches are the most important IMHO. My bare minimums for an ML starter would be something like this: control > 60, vL/R > 60 and at least one solid pitch (> 70) with hopefully none < 50.

Quote: Originally posted by firemanrob on 1/02/2010End of the rotation ML starter.  I'd wait to move him up though so you can reduce his ML time in service, thus delaying arbitration.When looking at ML pitchers, control, vL/R splits and pitches are the most important IMHO. My bare minimums for an ML starter would be something like this: control > 60, vL/R > 60 and at least one solid pitch (> 70) with hopefully none < 50.

I like my ML starters to have at least three big league quality pitches (60+). I don't care if they have a fringy fourth pitch, because I don't use catchers that would be stupid enough to call for it.

The exception is sinkerballers. A pitcher with a one very good-to-great (80+) pitch and a very-good-to-great GB/FB rating (80+) can be solid -- Keith Stanley being a prime example.

Quote: Originally Posted By firemanrob on 1/02/2010End of the rotation ML starter. I'd wait to move him up though so you can reduce his ML time in service, thus delaying arbitration

Agree, or maybe not even quite that good, maybe a 10th-11th pitcher.

Quote: Originally posted by dedelman on 1/02/2010

Quote: Originally Posted By firemanrob on 1/02/2010End of the rotation ML starter.  I'd wait to move him up though so you can reduce his ML time in service, thus delaying arbitration.

Agree, or maybe not even quite that good, maybe a 10th-11th pitcher.

You must be in some sadly uncompetitive leagues if you think that kid is long relief quality.

With projected 91-72 splits and great control and 4 good pitches...he has to be better than a #11 or #12 guy, dedelman.

He compares fairly well to these three guys....(I think...but then I'm a newby). All productive on my MLB roster.

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=1782151

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=1139261

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=172083

Quote: Originally Posted By moethedog on 1/02/2010

With projected 91-72 splits and great control and 4 good pitches...he has to be better than a #11 or #12 guy, dedelman.

He compares fairly well to these three guys....(I think...but then I'm a newby). All productive on my MLB roster.

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=1782151

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=1139261

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=172083

Keith, I evaluated him based on who he is today, not on projections I couldn't see.

But he's almost stopped growing. Look at his development pattern, which is slowing down. Plus, you will learn to recognize that players rarely make improvements of more than a point or two in the 4th full professional year or beyond. He's never, ever seeing those 91/72 splits. Next season he will be a touch better, a true back-of rotation starter.

EDIT-- All 3 of the guys you posted have better Control and VsR than Sanchez will ever see. Which is why they're better than he will ever be.

Thanks.



Keith

If you would post his projections it would be helpful (even though your advance scouting is only $14m). That said, as it is now, this guy might be the 25th man on my team (which is a competitive team). Your team might be different, I don't know what your plans are. But looking at your ML roster right now, you've got at least 4 starters better than him (Carillo, Quantrill, Molina, O'Rourke, not necessarily in that order) and 2 other potential starters who are about as good (Huang and Marrero). That means you could make a 6-man rotation that wouldn't really be helped by bringing this guy up right now.

Now given that this guy is entering his 5th pro year and his makeup is good but not excellent, I imagine he has some developing to go but not a huge amount. Still, his control should easily exceed 80, his split versus righties could be in the low 70's, and his split versus ies might get to the mid-to-high 80's or possibly even break 90 if I'm guessing correctly (again, I can't see his projections). It looks like he might not get any pitches over 80 (maybe #1 might creep up to exactly 80) but he will have 5 decent pitches which is good. His low velocity and below average flyball tendancies will hurt him, but overall, I think you're looking at a fairly capable pitcher by age 24 or 25. I think a mistake was made by having him skip rookie ball (since then he could be entering AAA for the first time this year and would have no threat of stagnating), but I think with a patience rating of 51 and a makeup of 77 you should still see pretty good development by leaving him in AAA for another year and bringing him up next season. If you're looking to be competitive this season, you can bring him up as a reliever, but bear in mind that his growth may be stunted if he starts to struggle at the big league level. It's up to you, but I would be patient with him and leave him in the minors until he gets a bit more seasoning (unless he stops progressing at AAA, in which case he's probably stagnating and I'd call him up).

So I'm sorry for the lengthy post, but the long and short of it is that he's no better than your current starters, so I'd recommend not burning an arb year this season (especially since your team only won 87 games last season but still won division by 9 games, meaning you can take some liberties this year and still trump your weak divisional competition). If you're worried about keeping up with the jonses, you can call him up and put him in a relief role, but I think it would be an error to place him in your rotation.

If you do bring him up this season, I'd use as a LR. But just make sure he's going to get enough IP to make it worthwhile, otherwise let him finish another season at AAA. He looks like he might be comparable to the 3 guys you mentioned. Probably a better than .500 SP. He'll give up a lot of HRs, but with his good control maybe most will be with no one on base.

I like my SPs to have good splits(70+, esp vR) and pitches. At least 3 pitches 65+, hopefully at least one 80+. As long as you have that, I will accept a lower control, but at least >50. If he only has 2 quality pitches, he's a LR, not a SP.

He can pitch in the bigs. This is the most similar guy I could find on my team.

http://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=585280

Everyone who says "I need 80s across the board with no pitch below 70" is either full of crap or plays in worlds so 'tarded up that they can acquire a staff of those types by trading the high stamina/durability turds for them with some n00b.

Quote: Originally posted by MikeT23 on 1/02/2010He can pitch in the bigs.  This is the most similar guy I could find on my team.http://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=585280Everyone who says "I need 80s across the board with no pitch below 70" is either full of crap or plays in worlds so 'tarded up that they can acquire a staff of those types by trading the high stamina/durability turds for them with some n00b.

Hah, agreed. That guy would get 4M+ in free agency in either of the leagues that I play in.

Where he fits in your staff is a issue for you individual team. For one of my teams he would be my 3rd-best reliever because I happen to have a strong starting staff but in the other he would be my #2 starter... both teams have .600+ winning percentages in competitive leagues. One team just has more talent in position players and I think overall less pitching in the league as a whole. I would imagine that he would be an above-average pitcher in any league and will give you 170 or so innings. That's pretty valuable to me.

With that said, you may or may not want to call him up yet because you may not want to start his service time.

Also, as I mentioned to you in another thread, you need to basically disregard projections after a player's 4th spring training. His control only improved 1 point last season so it's probably not breaking 80, his vL will probably get into the 88 range or so and his vR probably won't hit 70. His pitches all seem to be a point or so away from their peak. Nonetheless, he's a good player.

Quote: Originally posted by antonsirius on 1/02/2010

Quote: Originally posted by firemanrob on 1/02/2010End of the rotation ML starter.  I'd wait to move him up though so you can reduce his ML time in service, thus delaying arbitration.When looking at ML pitchers, control, vL/R splits and pitches are the most important IMHO. My bare minimums for an ML starter would be something like this: control > 60, vL/R > 60 and at least one solid pitch (> 70) with hopefully none < 50.

I like my ML starters to have at least three big league quality pitches (60+). I don't care if they have a fringy fourth pitch, because I don't use catchers that would be stupid enough to call for it.

The exception is sinkerballers. A pitcher with a one very good-to-great (80+) pitch and a very-good-to-great GB/FB rating (80+) can be solid -- Keith Stanley being a prime example.

Admin/CS/Developers have never wavered from the stance that pitch types are merely cosmetic. You can choose not to believe them, but I'd hold off on advising a new owner to start looking for sinkerballers.

Prezuiwf,



Projections are 83 (stam) 84 (contol) 91 & 72 (R/L split) 31 (velocity) 43 (GB/F) and 79/65/82/66/43