Ratings improve, but 32-yo gets worse Topic

sanderbear
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This is the oddest thing I've seen.

I have a 32-yo RP who has improved by nine points -- spread among six pitching categories -- between S13 and S14.

I had signed him as a FA before S13 to a one-year deal with a mutual option. He had a brief stint on the DL in S13. He has a 73 makeup.

But in spite of the ratings increase and better health, he's pitching worse this year. Weird, huh?

http://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=668672

1/27/2010 12:36 AM
prezuiwf
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Is this a serious question? The guy's a reliever and his ERA has gone up by about three quarters of a point. Ask Juan Cruz or Brad Lidge how easy it is to keep your ERA at the same level every year as a reliever. Plus with that guy's ratings, 4.66 is a LOT closer what what I'd expect out of him than 3.84.
1/27/2010 7:55 AM
sanderbear
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I just thought it was ironic that a 32-yo improved that much, out of nowhere, but is having a worse year nonetheless.

I know relievers can be very inconsistent.
1/27/2010 11:33 AM
tomhighway
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Everything is just screwed up right now.. They changed one thing and everything seems like it's not right.
1/27/2010 12:13 PM
tecwrg
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Take away his six worst appearances, and his numbers for the other 32 games: 41.1 IP, 1.74 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Is that better?

What do you have his pull rating set at?
1/27/2010 12:24 PM
MikeT23
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Ugh at threads like this.

I'm tempted to post every pitcher I have with 50 innings who is underperforming from past seasons and every batter with 200 AB who is doing the same simply to point the silliness of these threads. Just you wait until I have 16-18 uninterrupted hours to kill.

JUST YOU WAIT!!! MY "WHY IS THIS PLAYER UNDERPERFORMING?" THREADS WILL DOMINATE THIS FORUM!!!!!

MMWHAHAHAHAHAHHA!!!!
1/27/2010 12:36 PM
sanderbear
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Quote: Originally Posted By tecwrg on 1/27/2010
Take away his six worst appearances, and his numbers for the other 32 games: 41.1 IP, 1.74 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Is that better?

What do you have his pull rating set at?

20/25
1/27/2010 12:47 PM
sanderbear
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Quote: Originally Posted By MikeT23 on 1/27/2010
Ugh at threads like this.

... JUST YOU WAIT!!! MY "WHY IS THIS PLAYER UNDERPERFORMING?" THREADS WILL DOMINATE THIS FORUM!!!!!

>>

Mike, you missed the point of the thread. The point is -- wow, a 32-yo pitcher had an out-of-nowhere huge ratings increase. The sort of increase you'd usually have for a 23-yo.

Funnily, he's not having a great year (tec's analysis notwithstanding -- thanks, tec). I thought that was ironic.
1/27/2010 12:48 PM
MikeT23
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A) It's not an "out of nowhere" increase. I haven't looked at your pitcher but it's not unusual for 30-33 y/o players to add a point here and there in the skill ratings.

B) Performance for every player can vary from year to year. Throw in WifS' every other day tweaking and it will probably happen a lot more.
1/27/2010 1:28 PM
tecwrg
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I took a look at the pitcher. Here's what I found.

1) He played for a different franchise in S10-S12 (I didn't look back further than that). That franchise had a lower training budget, and worse pitching/bullpen coaches than sanderbear's team has currently.

2) The dumbass who had this guy before sanderbear demoted him to AA and AAA in S12. So I assume that, while not necessarily incurring a demotion penalty, he didn't have any positive development either that season.

3) Sanderbear picked him up in S13 as a free agent. He started to catch up on missed development over the past two seasons due to a better training budget and much better pitching coaches.
1/27/2010 1:54 PM
zbrent716
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Quote: Originally Posted By MikeT23 on 1/27/2010
A) It's not an "out of nowhere" increase. I haven't looked at your pitcher but it's not unusual for 30-33 y/o players to add a point here and there in the skill ratings.

B) Performance for every player can vary from year to year. Throw in WifS' every other day tweaking and it will probably happen a lot more.

Mike, you should take a look at this guy. This *is* an unusual case - with respect to improvement. Everyone has covered the issue with reacting to an ERA for a RP.

Between Spring Training 13 (Age 31) and Spring Training 14 (Age 32), the player in question made the following gains -

Two (2) points in control.
Three (3) points in vLH.
One (1) point in vRH.
One (1) point in health.
One (1) point in bunting.
One (1) point in stamina.

Since the beginning of Season 14, he had made the following in-season improvements -

One (1) point in P1.
One (1) point in P2.
One (1) point in GB/FB.

Just as importantly, this is a 32-year old who has seen no rating decline since he turned 30. Even his raw ratings (as opposed to skill ratings, and those that I have only seen go up after 30 during the training-bug era) have stayed the same or - in the case of stamina - actually improved.

Another thing to note is that he appears to have experienced the beginnings of age-related decline - note the one-point drop in P2 from age 27 to 28 and one point drop in P1 from age 30 to 31 - only to have it suddenly reverse.

I can't explain it (it's considerably more than the 1 or 2 point jumps in skill ratings I see from my vets with high makeup and $20M training), but something very strange is going on with this guy.
1/27/2010 1:57 PM
prezuiwf
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It doesn't seem that strange to me. I have a 31-year old starter who has gotten bumps in several categories over the past year. It's been long known that pitchers peak later than hitters, and at various times depending on the pitcher.
1/27/2010 2:05 PM
zbrent716
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Quote: Originally Posted By prezuiwf on 1/27/2010
It doesn't seem that strange to me. I have a 31-year old starter who has gotten bumps in several categories over the past year. It's been long known that pitchers peak later than hitters, and at various times depending on the pitcher.
Can you link the starter?

If he has any gains in the raw categories, I'd be mildly surprised at that, too. I've had pitchers continue to improve, even in raw categories, past age 27 and even up to 30 I believe, but never in a stop & start fashion. Once the decline begins, I haven't seen anyone reverse it since the training bug fix.

If possible, I'd also like to know where you got the "pitchers peak later than hitters [in HBD]" from. It's possible Admin/CS/Developers have said that, but I don't recall seeing it.
1/27/2010 2:09 PM
MikeT23
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I think the "key" with this guy might be the change in teams. Although I must admit that 3 pts in one category between seasons does seem a bit odd. I doubt I could dig thru every team I've ever had and find that for a 31 year old.
1/27/2010 2:12 PM
prezuiwf
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Quote: Originally Posted By zbrent716 on 1/27/2010
Quote: Originally Posted By prezuiwf on 1/27/2010
It doesn't seem that strange to me. I have a 31-year old starter who has gotten bumps in several categories over the past year. It's been long known that pitchers peak later than hitters, and at various times depending on the pitcher.
Can you link the starter?

If he has any gains in the raw categories, I'd be mildly surprised at that, too. I've had pitchers continue to improve, even in raw categories, past age 27 and even up to 30 I believe, but never in a stop & start fashion. Once the decline begins, I haven't seen anyone reverse it since the training bug fix.

If possible, I'd also like to know where you got the "pitchers peak later than hitters [in HBD]" from. It's possible Admin/CS/Developers have said that, but I don't recall seeing it.

Ebenezer Brett

Former Cy Young winner, got demolished by a torn labrum in season 8, so the main thing that's different between Brett and the OP's guy is that Brett hasn't seen any age-related decline yet (just injury-related).

However, between spring training of season 9 and his current status in season 10, he has gained 2 points in control, 1 in stamina, 1 in vLH, 2 in vRH, 2 in P1, and 1 in P3. He also got a point in fielding arm strength. All this at the age of 31. Even if you JUST counted the gains since the start of this season, he's gotten 5 points overall in various pitching ratings. And that's even after getting a minor injury this year.
1/27/2010 2:23 PM
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