FredRedding wanted $5million for this next season. I offerd $2M. Arbitrator gave him all he wanted!!!!!!!

Sheesh...He spent almost all of last season in AAA, was a parttime IF the season before (87 not very productive games)..and three seasons ago, the last time he was a regular, he ht .219 and OPSed .673!

I thought $2M was being generous!

Did I mess up?

Now I'm inclined to just cut CrashDurocher ....even though I was hoping for him to be my 2B...He wants $5.6M! The arb guy might give it to him!

Yeah you should have just released him. When I go to arbitration, I never offer less than 70% of what he is demanding. The reason for this is if for some reason you miss the Arb day, then the AI will arbitrate for you and will offer 70%.

Thats a tough pill to swallow, but try to look at it as a learning experience. We all have had them.

that guy's not awful, all things considered

What were the recommendations for other players with his experience? That would have been shown on the arb page when you arb'd him. That would have given you a guideline of what to offer as your counter to the players demand.

FYI . . . you cannot undercut his demands by that much and expect to win. You'll lose 99.99999999999999999999% of the time.

Also, my rule of thumb: at budgeting time, assume (for planning purposes) that you will lose every arb hearing. Take that into account and determine if you want to meet the player's demand (assuming a loss) or just release him. If you end up winning a hearing, the money you save is "found" money and you can splurge somewhere else (free agency or trade).

Quote: Originally Posted By tecwrg on 4/05/2010
What were the recommendations for other players with his experience? That would have been shown on the arb page when you arb'd him. That would have given you a guideline of what to offer as your counter to the players demand.

FYI . . . you cannot undercut his demands by that much and expect to win. You'll lose 99.99999999999999999999% of the time.

Also, my rule of thumb: at budgeting time, assume (for planning purposes) that you will lose every arb hearing. Take that into account and determine if you want to meet the player's demand (assuming a loss) or just release him. If you end up winning a hearing, the money you save is "found" money and you can splurge somewhere else (free agency or trade).

Exactly. never go to aribtration unless you are ready to lose. And if you want to win you better offer at least 75% of the asking price. So long story short with thatguy demanding 5 million, if you werent ready to pay him 5 and offer at least 4, you should have released him. Looking at his ratings, I would have dumped the turkey.

Quote: Originally Posted By tecwrg on 4/05/2010
What were the recommendations for other players with his experience? That would have been shown on the arb page when you arb'd him. That would have given you a guideline of what to offer as your counter to the players demand.

FYI . . . you cannot undercut his demands by that much and expect to win. You'll lose 99.99999999999999999999% of the time.

Also, my rule of thumb: at budgeting time, assume (for planning purposes) that you will lose every arb hearing. Take that into account and determine if you want to meet the player's demand (assuming a loss) or just release him. If you end up winning a hearing, the money you save is "found" money and you can splurge somewhere else (free agency or trade).

+1, that's my mindset heading into arb. every season as well. Be prepared to lose. If you're not willing to pay a guy what he's looking for then you should reevaluate whether or not you should play that game with him. Try to trade him and if that fails cut him before the hearing. Don't play chicken with arb, because sooner or later you'll get burned.

Quote: Originally Posted By tecwrg on 4/05/2010
FYI . . . you cannot undercut his demands by that much and expect to win. You'll lose 99.99999999999999999999% of the time

I disagree; in arbitration I always use the "similar players" thing as a benchmark. I had a player who was a decent SS and wanted something like $9.5 million when similar players got something more like $4 million. I offered the exact guideline number and the arbitrator sided with me.

I had a guy ask for ~$650k, and I won my arb at $325k, so that's certainly less than 70%. However, I wouldn't have screwed around with it if the guy was asking $6m and I wanted to pay only $3m. Trade or release if you'd be deveststed by losing the arb.

Ah, memories.

We all remember the first time we took it up the arbitration poop shoot.

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Quote: Originally posted by deathinahole on 4/05/2010Ah, memories.We all remember the first time we took it up the arbitration poop shoot.

Isn't it a "chute"

I drink a pot of coffee a day. It's "shoot"

Sure it isn't "pour"?

In any case, I have come to believe that arb wins and losses are purely arbitrary, ha ha, with the player winning 2\3rds of the time, regardless of your counter and his deserving it.



I never take anybody past the 1st arb year, unless I am reasonably certain they will type A\B at the end of arb, AND I can afford them. After year one, sign them or kick them, period. In any case, the ones you release you can almost always sign back in the last FA cycle cheap, and if not, then someone else overpaid for them. (In Economics, that is called "The Greater Fool" theory, and it is just about the only Economic rule that is accurately labeled.)

"FredRedding wanted $5million for this next season. I offerd $2M. Arbitrator gave him all he wanted!!!!!!!"

Arbitrator can only between your offer and the players offer, he can't pick a price in between. In this case it was either 2 mil or 5 mil.