For all the talk about altering the way prospects work, I wanted to bring up a simple point that I've yet to hear anyone else mention. The current system allows for a lot of variables which can result in unexpected disappointment without any sort of actual POSITIVE surprises to balance this. I always found this to be a bit odd considering you're selling a product whose primary objective is to be fun.

Examples:

As is currently stands, you can certainly have a draft "bust" (major career-altering injury, player doesn't develop properly due to getting stuck with sub-par coaches, etc.). And yet there is no manner of flip-side to balance one's hopeless feelings of misfortune. (And please don't say DitR's as we all know that these are the dry-hump of positive surprises.)

Furthermore the current system of projected ratings almost always OVERshoots, once again creating the inevitable disappointment without any counter-balance.

Some simple solutions:

Counteract draft busts with the rare draft surprise/ an actual worthwhile DitR -- Yes, it's been discussed to death but it seems that the main point of opposition is the idea that no one should get anything good through sheer luck. I don't really get that logic. Why is it okay to get screwed through sheer luck but not okay to benefit? 30 games into his career, your top 5 pick goes down for 180 days and is permanently altered from perennial all-star to mediocrity. Why could it not be that your late first round pick suddenly discovers the joys of sobriety, taking his game to a whole new level, and goes on to become the best player of his draft class? "Fair"? Not particularly. But no less fair than the first scenario. And most importantly, you will be PLEASANTLY surprised by this unexpected occurance and love HBD that much more that day.

Make projected ratings far more vague -- Rather than seeing projected hitting ratings of [70-90-75-65-60], rate them on a scale of 1-5 or color code them or whatever. i.e. Your prospect projects to having "5" in power, meaning he'll wind up somewhere between 87-99, and a "3" in contact, suggesting he'll wind up somewhere between 60-73. I know I've heard someone mention something similar in regards to ratings in general, but I'd leave the current ratings the way they are and implement this for projected. It creates far more mystery, it gets points for the much-coveted "realism" aspect, and most importantly it allows for the occasional POSITIVE surprise!

End of long-winded rant.

First point:  There are worthwhile DITR.  I've got two on my MG pitching staff.   And a third DITR who'll be on my BL team next season.   Just because you haven't been PLEASANTLY surprised doesn't mean no one has.   But that's the thing about surprises.

Second point:  I've mentioned that several times.   It never gets any support AND WifS doesn't seem to think much of it either. 

Mike, with all due respect, have you ever seen a ML-quality DitR that wasn't either a RP or a DH? Having a late round turd turn into a Setup B, the likes of which I can easily find in the FA pool for 3M per season, is hardly worthy of a "wow! ".

What I had in mind was more along the lines of your 2nd or 3rd round pick turning out to be mid-first quality.

Vlad Guerrero as a catcher!

Actually, Death, that is probably the best DitR non-RP I've ever seen. You have almost made me eat my words. He's still no better than a #5 on a playoff team with those projected splits, but still a better overall starting pitcher than I thought possible. Too bad that injury just made him a career AAAA-er.

As for the aforementioned C, a nice back-up defensive replacement, and maybe even a platoon starter vs. lefties, but not quite what I had in mind when voicing my thoughts. Again, I'd like to see a top 3 player of a particular draft class emerge from outside the top 5 once in a blue.

Aside from the reasons already mentioned, this would surely reduce the incentive to tank to some degree, as well as making type A/B picks considerably more meaningful, and maybe make you consider your scouting budget a bit more carefully when you're scheduled to draft outside the top 25.

I've gotten great picks toward the bottom of the first round in all three leagues I'm in. For example, Luke Evans came at pick 20 in Mays, Hootie Houston, Jose Gutierrez and Mikes Miles came in picks 27, 32 and 33 of the same draft in Griffey, and Juan Gonzalez came at pick 23 in Moneyball.

Some better players were selected ahead of all those guys, some worse. Hard to say what caused other owners to pass on these guys, if they saw them at all, but the point is that quality players are often available after the top 5 selections.

If you're not putting full effort into your draft board because you're picking 26th, you're making a mistake. 

Posted by kadpcmdcsb on 7/28/2010 2:29:00 AM (view original):
Actually, Death, that is probably the best DitR non-RP I've ever seen. You have almost made me eat my words. He's still no better than a #5 on a playoff team with those projected splits, but still a better overall starting pitcher than I thought possible. Too bad that injury just made him a career AAAA-er.

As for the aforementioned C, a nice back-up defensive replacement, and maybe even a platoon starter vs. lefties, but not quite what I had in mind when voicing my thoughts. Again, I'd like to see a top 3 player of a particular draft class emerge from outside the top 5 once in a blue.

Aside from the reasons already mentioned, this would surely reduce the incentive to tank to some degree, as well as making type A/B picks considerably more meaningful, and maybe make you consider your scouting budget a bit more carefully when you're scheduled to draft outside the top 25.

Yea, you probably saw me whine...again...in the league chat.

What is a ditr?

Okay never mind. I actually just got a diamond in the rough message in my inbox. Good timing! I'm not familiar with the 2 players, but it appears they were junk, now transformed into upper 60's OVR. I'd use the word "useful", but nothing more.

Posted by kadpcmdcsb on 7/27/2010 8:23:00 PM (view original):
Mike, with all due respect, have you ever seen a ML-quality DitR that wasn't either a RP or a DH? Having a late round turd turn into a Setup B, the likes of which I can easily find in the FA pool for 3M per season, is hardly worthy of a "wow! ".

What I had in mind was more along the lines of your 2nd or 3rd round pick turning out to be mid-first quality.

So you rather spend 3m on a setup B than a 11th rounder that becomes a setup b? And if you're keeping score I haven't got jack with a DITR so one would be worthy of a "wow".

Posted by mitchrapp on 8/2/2010 5:26:00 AM (view original):

Posted by kadpcmdcsb on 7/27/2010 8:23:00 PM (view original):
Mike, with all due respect, have you ever seen a ML-quality DitR that wasn't either a RP or a DH? Having a late round turd turn into a Setup B, the likes of which I can easily find in the FA pool for 3M per season, is hardly worthy of a "wow! ".

What I had in mind was more along the lines of your 2nd or 3rd round pick turning out to be mid-first quality.

So you rather spend 3m on a setup B than a 11th rounder that becomes a setup b? And if you're keeping score I haven't got jack with a DITR so one would be worthy of a "wow".

Certainly not. It's better than nothing. But hardly the emotional equivalent of your 1st round pick going down to a major injury that makes him functionally useless at the ML level. The equivalent of that would be your functionally useless 4th round pick DiTR-ing into a first round caliber solid player. Not that should happen all the time, of course, but once every 20 seasons or so would be nice (about how often you get a decent Setup B off a pick  in the teens these days)