First Half Play-by-Play

Second Half Play-by-Play

I was a 30-point favorite in this game, after winning at my place earlier in the season 65-46 (box score). I ended up losing by 35 (!), 89-54.

In that earlier game, I started at (-1) and was adjusted at halftime to (+1). In this game, I began at (+2) and GA goes 5-for-14 in the first half. I'm adjusted to +3 in the second half and GA goes 5-for-9.

I got out-rebounded 49 to 21. His rebounding was led by POTG Jeremy Gideon, who pulled down 14 rebounds with a 27 Reb. Rating (although with excellent athleticism of 77). I have a very strong rebounding team (for DIII). Even after this debacle, I have outrebounded teams on the year 38.7 to 30.9.

Certainly bad luck must have played some role, but if just "luck" can result in a 54-point swing and a 35-point blowout loss to an inferior team, I've got to wonder why this is a better way to spend time & money than just playing craps. At the very least, I've got to have the illusion that what I'm doing makes some sort of difference here.

Posted by dahsdebater on 8/11/2010 7:56:00 PM (view original):
First of all, I don't have a lot more experience than you do.  However, I don't think you have what I would call "a very strong rebounding team," even in D3.  You have a good rebounding team, but plenty of human-coached teams will outrebound you on a regular basis.  Your dominant rebounding statistics are partly a product of a fairly soft schedule.  Your rebounders have excellent athleticism, but higher rebounding with solid athleticism is still the key to consistent dominance on the boards.  It does seem like athleticism has played a bigger role in rebounding success since the update; I don't see this as a positive thing, since all too often it seems like athletic guards go off for double-digit boards in spite of very poor rebounding ratings.  I've seen guys with less than that 27 do the same thing with 70+ athleticism.  That bothers me a lot; you should have out-rebounded that team easily.

Posted by uglyskunk3 on 8/11/2010 7:56:00 PM (view original):
first off you decided for some reason to give one of your worst guards (swart and he shouldn't be starting) most of the shots. try not being seduced by perimeter ratings. ath and spd is much much much more important.

you didn't set your distro up correctly. you clearly had players that were better then his but they didn't get enough shots.  and you shouldn't have mccloud starting.

Posted by cburton23 on 8/12/2010 1:19:00 AM (view original):
Skunk, has anybody other than you ever set-up their distro right?

Posted by cburton23 on 8/12/2010 10:32:00 AM (view original):
My point is I have never seen you say, "Yeah that is a really odd result."  Which this one was.  His distro isn't the reason he lost this game, it was just a fluke game where everything that could go wrong did.  The cards were staked against him and no matter his distro he got the raw end of the deal.

Not to mention you can't look at one game and say the distro is wrong.  I had a game the other day where my 10 distro center took 25%+ of the shots.  Why?  We were playing a 3-2 zone +2. 

Posted by uglyskunk3 on 8/12/2010 11:37:00 AM (view original):

Posted by cburton23 on 8/12/2010 10:32:00 AM (view original):
My point is I have never seen you say, "Yeah that is a really odd result."  Which this one was.  His distro isn't the reason he lost this game, it was just a fluke game where everything that could go wrong did.  The cards were staked against him and no matter his distro he got the raw end of the deal.

Not to mention you can't look at one game and say the distro is wrong.  I had a game the other day where my 10 distro center took 25%+ of the shots.  Why?  We were playing a 3-2 zone +2. 

i don't agree with that at all. actually there is nothing fluky about that loss. he was out matched by four of the sims starting players. pg - sparkman (43ath/61spd) going up against swart (39ath/38spd) that is a huge mismatch in favor of the sim. its nice that swart has 70 def, but if he can't keep up with the player who cares? and mind you swart who is clearly worse then sparkman took more shots then anyone. where is the fluke?

too many of you guys throw up your hands and say why why why, but using this as an example should make you second guess all this nonsense of oops guess i got lucky or unlucky in that game. zbrent had a choice, if he had played watanabe he would've had a slightly better player guarding sparkman and i would guarantee that sparkman wouldn't have shot as well as he did.

so lets look at the sims best player in the gideon. the 14 boards that is fluky i'll give you that, but lets examine why that probably happened. of the 14 reb only 4 are offensive. so that means once again that zbrent's boys are missing a lot of shots. first off we established that swart took shots that he had no business taking, and if we look again we will see tied for second in shots is woodruff his backup center who is slightly better then his backup center but his defender is a 70+. when the two players are of the same caliber any the other player is a great defender you might not want to try too many shots.

lets get back to gideon. so gideon (77ath/43 spd) is going up against tooley (59 ath/37spd)......pretty obvious that tooley is not the better player. but this his best sf by quite a bit and is gonna be the best matchup he can think of to go up against gideon. how many minutes did his best sf play? 13 mins! that is it. gotta change those foul tolerance settings. but since he goes into foul trouble that brings in breedlove to battle gideon. now gideon has the advantage again since breedlove is just 37 ath/spd 68. so gideon goes off for 6-10 shooting and that is fine he is the better player.