One of the classic debates I've seen in HBD is the schedule- balanced?  Unbalanced?  Is it broken?  Do tankers give some teams an advantage? So here comes my study.

Assumptions: "Tankers" win at a .250 clip (lower than that and they are against fair play), average teams win at a .500 clip, and "Great" teams win at a .618 clip (100.11600000 wins).  162 game schedule is the only option, and 6 teams per league must still make the playoffs.  Also assumed that all teams perform equally all season long.  32 teams must remain in two 16 team leagues.

::edit- put in exact numbers since rounding and adding errors are unacceptable on this board.  Sorry that I didn't take out the repeating decimals to 30 digits.::

Current model:
10 games vs. each division foe (30 total)- 18.518518518% of games (518 is repeating)
10 games vs. each league foe (120 total)- 74.074074074% of games (074 is repeating)
3 games vs. 4 teams in (12 total)- 7.407407407407% of games (407 is repeating)

Maximum effect of tankers on wildcard- 4.416 wins (Team A plays interleague games against division of all tankers- wins 9.  Team B plays interleague games against all great teams- wins 4.584)

"MikeT" model:
14 games vs. each division foe (42 total)- 25.925925925% of games (925 is repeating)
10 games vs. each league foe (120 total)- 74.074074074% of games (074 is repeating)
0 games vs. other league (0 total, 0 is repeating)

Maximum effect of tankers on wildcard- 4.416 wins (Team A plays 12 more division games against 3 tankers- wins 9.  Team B plays 12 more division games against 3 great teams- wins 4.584)

"grivfmd1" model:
18 games vs. each division foe (54 total)- 33.33333333333% of games (3 is repeating)
8 games vs. each league foe (96 total)- 59.259259259% of games (259 is repeating)
3 games vs. 4 teams in (12 total)- 7.407407407% of games (407 is repeating)

Maximum effect of tankers on wildcard- 15.456 wins (Team A plays 30 more division games against 3 tankers, and 12 intraleague games against 4 tankers- wins 31.50000.  Team B plays 30 more division games against 3 great teams and 12 intraleague games against 4 great teams- wins 16.044)

"Asher413" model:
14 games vs. each division foe (42 total)- 25.925925925% of games (925 is repeating)
8 games vs. each league foe (96 total)- 59.259259259% of games (259 is repeating)
3 games vs. 8 teams in (24 total)- 14.814814814% of games (814 is repeating)

Maximum effect of tankers on wildcard- 15.456 wins (Team A plays 18 more division games against 3 tankers, and 24 intraleague games against 4 tankers- wins 31.5.  Team B plays 18 more division games against 3 great teams and 24 intraleague games against 4 great teams- wins 16.044)

"Down with Tankers impacting games" model:
10 games vs. each division foe (30 total)- 18.518518518518% of games (518 is repeating)
11 games vs. each league foe (132 total)- 81.481481481481% of games (481 is repeating)
0 interleague games

Maximum effect of tankers on wildcard- 1.472 wins (Team A plays 4 games against a tanker division (which Team B is in) in league- wins 3.  Team B plays 4 games against a great division which Team A is a part of- wins 1.528)

Conclusions to draw toward any schedule argument- with the current division and playoff structure, no schedule is perfectly balanced.  Extreme seasons could possibly have the 13th placed team in a league in the playoffs with the current structure, and the 4th placed team could miss the playoffs.   Changing to a schedule that leans more toward divisional play could further skew the equality of the wild card race.

Now, if we changed the division structure, but kept the same number of teams and leagues, two main options exist- 2 leagues, 2 divisions each, 8 teams per division or 2 leagues, no divisions, 16 teams per league.

"Eliminate Divisions" models: (2 leagues, 16 teams per league with no divisions)
Following the current model or Down with tanker models above, you could have "tanker" impacts of 1.5 wins or 4.4 wins.

2 Divisions per league models:
    "Current" model- same tanker impact (4.416), but the worst team into the playoffs could be 9th (or 10th if you give the top two teams in the division playoff berths).
    "Division Heavy" model- 12 games against other 7 divisional teams (84 games, 51.851851851%, 851 is repeating), 9 games against 8 league foes (72 games, 44.44444%, 4 is repeating), 3 games against 2 interleague foes (6 games, 3.703703703%, 703 is repeating)- 9.936 win impact.  This model would create an uneven number of home vs. away games with some teams.  Any shifts into more divisional games or interleague would further the impact of a tanker team.

I would like to see what people think, and see if the majority really feels that the current model is the best model for HBD's schedules.  Outside of touching the sacred cows (32 teams, 162 games, 2 leagues, wild card teams), there is no schedule that I have thought of that eliminates the SOS from impacting a wild card race.  Some allow poor divisions to have greater impacts on the ranking of the teams in the wild card slots than others.

To be honest, both worlds I commish have minimum win requirements so tanking is effectively eliminated.  My plan was designed to give you more control over winning your division and removing the disparity of the "random" 12 games that impact the WC race.

My apologies Mike- I didn't actually say what I thought the pain was- to me the problem is that you shouldn't have division winners that can be as low as 13th in the league make the playoffs with a "balanced" schedule.  The argument I keep hearing against it is that "tankers will make an imbalanced schedule unfair for the wild card".  So I did some math around what sort of schedule resolves the "tanking" issue, to truly understand why people support the schedule in it's current form.

I really just want to hear what about the current schedule (or other options) people want- with numbers in front of them before they wave the card that the current system avoids any impact from tanking.

fwiw, I don't see any reason to have interleague games at all.

They shouldn't have started doing it in real life either.

Posted by philogenemay on 2/27/2011 7:23:00 PM (view original):
fwiw, I don't see any reason to have interleague games at all.

They shouldn't have started doing it in real life either.

+1

Posted by tropicana on 2/27/2011 7:32:00 PM (view original):
Uhhh.

So.

Why are some of these worlds playing 190 games or more?

Maybe there was some intelligence in this post. But as soon as I saw the game breakdown my thought was, "This guy is a fuckin' idiot." and I tuned out.

Sorry.

Math error.

He has 8 games x 12 non-divisional-league teams coming out to 120 games, when it should be 96 games.

Correct for that mistake, they all come out to 162 games.

Posted by philogenemay on 2/27/2011 7:23:00 PM (view original):
fwiw, I don't see any reason to have interleague games at all.

They shouldn't have started doing it in real life either.

There is no reason to have interleague games in HBD.

They started it in MLB to create additional revenue.  Not relevant in HBD.

Posted by tecwrg on 2/27/2011 8:29:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tropicana on 2/27/2011 7:32:00 PM (view original):
Uhhh.

So.

Why are some of these worlds playing 190 games or more?

Maybe there was some intelligence in this post. But as soon as I saw the game breakdown my thought was, "This guy is a fuckin' idiot." and I tuned out.

Sorry.

Math error.

He has 8 games x 12 non-divisional-league teams coming out to 120 games, when it should be 96 games.

Correct for that mistake, they all come out to 162 games.

I'm aware of that.

Again, took less than a second to realize it.

So again, I ask, why should I listed to anyone who is posing ideas who can't even do simple arithmeitc correctly?

And then sends out sitemails wondering why you think he's a fuckin' idiot?  Dude, it took literally no time at all to figure out, by simple addition, that you effed up, and then figure out what lesson you didn't learn in second grade. If you want to post some kind of revolutionary idea, and look smart, copy edit.

Someone's in a pissy mood tonight.

Tonight???

Posted by tecwrg on 2/27/2011 8:36:00 PM (view original):

Posted by philogenemay on 2/27/2011 7:23:00 PM (view original):
fwiw, I don't see any reason to have interleague games at all.

They shouldn't have started doing it in real life either.

There is no reason to have interleague games in HBD.

They started it in MLB to create additional revenue.  Not relevant in HBD.

Using that argument, there should be no wild cards or divisional series.  Both started to create revenue in MLB.

One coud easily argue that keeping owners interested for a full 162 games of HBD is an upside to having 6 playoff teams.  I might even argue that adding a 7th team would be beneficial to HBD.

Once can argue that taking away the wild cards may take away revenue from HBD.  Less opportunity to make the playoffs may lead to less interested owners.

I think, this season only, they should let in 32.