Before I start to make my post/rant, I want to make it clear that I'm really not sure that there is anything wrong with the zone defense.  I thought twice about clicking the "post" button and thought about deleting this instead of posting.  But at the end I figured it wouldn't hurt to make the case for zone being broken and let you guys tear it down.  And if my ambivalence here tell you anything, it is that I'm not sure I even buy my own argument.

Quick background:
I had a top 5 FG/FG3 defense in seasons 44, 45, 46, and 47 of Allen D3 running a zone defense.  When adjusted for schedule (my SOS is always top 10 and typically top 5), my defense was probably #1 in all four of the seasons.

Something has happened the past two seasons for my team in Allen.  Last season in 48, I had an average defense.  This season in 49, it is a bit better but it still is not even close to being elite.

I admit to being baffled by this.  I've pretty much been recruiting the same types of players and I went from a run of having the top defense in D3 to having  a defense that is not much better than your typical D3 coach.  (And that includes the one-and-done coaches.)

I'm so baffled by this, I created a really stupid thread last week questioning if my 700 overall rated player was hurting my team -- because he's my worst defender.  I'm trying to figure out what could have happened and I've been questioning everything.  Turns out I can't figure out what I'm doing wrong.  And so now I'm shifting the blame to WIS.  I think the 2/3 update really damaged the zone defense.  That update took place right as Allen switched from season 47 to 48.

My crackpot theory is really hurt by the fact that there is not much in the release notes that suggests why the update would have had a big impact on zone.  It's why I'm really reluctant to make this post.  At the same time, my defensive FG/FG3 numbers are terrible compared to what they were the four prior seasons and the 2/3 update occurred at the same time my numbers turned sour.  And the quality of my roster seems to be as good now as it was then.  In fact, I'd argue (and I think that my conference mates would agree) that my current roster is my strongest of the past six seasons.  But this team is quite a bit worse than the 44-47 teams.

And what truly has my mind spinning about this is that the 2/3 update lowered field goal percentages across the board.  Yet, for my team they have sky rocketed.  In seasons 44-47 I was holding teams to a 39-40% FG% and 28-29 FG3%.  The past two seasons after the update that lowered field goal percentages, my FG% rate is about 44% and my FG3% is about 35%.  I've tried looking up and down at my roster to figure out what I've done to cause other teams to shoot about 5% better from the field after an update was made to lower percentages and I'm just coming up empty.  So I'm blaming the zone.

Rubbing salt in the wound is that I have the best shot blocking team in D3.  (That statistic in itself might suggest that zone isn't broken.)  Right now, I'm blocking 13% of my opponents field goals.  I have no idea how many others I'm disrupting, but it can't be zero.  I really am having a hard time coming to terms with the fact that I'm disrupting/blocking so many shots and I still can't put up a decent percentage.  Were it not for the blocks, teams would be shooting 50% against me.

And I do want to point out that I have a good roster.  It's the only team in Allen D3 that is in the top 25 overall rankings for athleticism (5th), speed (17th), rebounding (22nd), defense (3rd), and shot blocking (8th).

I wanted to check and see if I was the exception to the rule.  This was a bit difficult to answer, but I'm going to say that I'm not.  There most definitely are zone defense right now that are putting up outstanding numbers.  If you look at the top defensive FG teams in D3 (and especially D2) there are a number of zone teams in Allen.  However, they almost all have terrible SOS.  In D3, none is better than 200 and most are 300+.  D2 does have two teams running zone quite well that have SOS in the 90's.  Those two teams might be proof that zone isn't broke the way I think it is.

So I took a different approach.  And looking at these two methods, albeit each flawed in its own way, leads me to the conclusion that something is wrong with zone.

1. Pretty much no good teams run zone.  Looking at top 25 RPI in the Allen world, there are two teams that run zone of the 75 in D1, D2, and D3.  No top 25 team runs zon in D1.  #22 Montana St, Billings does in D2.  For D3 you have my team.  And while I'm in the top 25, it's because my offense is lights out, my rebounding gives me second chances when they miss, and I get to the free throw line when those first two options fail.  I'm winning, but it's because of the offensive side of the ball.

(I don't want to give the fact that no good teams run zone much credit.  I think Occam's Razor applies here and explains most things.  Zone has been a *slightly* lesser option for a while and therefore teams just don't run zone.  Honestly, if you are running zone at this point, you are a bit of an idiot for doing so.  At the same time, it's a bit striking that there is nobody at all running it besides me and MSB.)

2. Of the top 25 RPI in Allen D3, I have the worst FG/FG3 percentages of any of the teams.  Every other team plays better defense and that's a bit odd since as I noted earlier, I'm the only team that is excellent in athleticism, speed, rebounding, defense, and shot blocking.  You'd think that with my team being quicker, faster, stronger that I'd be better on defense than at least of one other top 25 teams, but that isn't the case.


Super long post, so to quickly summarize:
1. I used to have the best defense in Allen D3 and running zone to do it.
2. WIS released the major update on 2/3.
3. Despite the update lowing percentages across the board, mine has skyrocked up and with my best team on paper in a while.
4. I am blocking a ton of shots right now, so my poor FG/FG3 percentages would be even worse were it not for the blocks.
5. Surveying the landscape in Allen reveals that nobody is running zone well right now.


I honestly am looking for folks to tear apart my half-brained theory.  Nothing in the update suggests that zone was broken.  At the same time, I really am struggling to explain why I'm so bad on defense compared to the other top teams.  Maybe I'm just not as good as I think I am???

For what it's worth, I know my post has to come off as whining, whining, whining.  I'm 17-4 and have a top 5 RPI.  My team is good and to be complaining when I'm doing this well is a bit rich.

That said, I am confused by the defense and since it seems that nobody is running zone well, I thought making a post wouldn't hurt.

And while I'm still a whiner, whiner, whiner for making the above post, I do want to stress that I think my offensive success is also a bit silly.  I do have good speed, athleticism, and ball handling.  But a team that has as (relatively) poor passing, low post play, and perimeter shooting as I do shouldn't be as successful as I am.

When this season started, I thought I would be sitting where I am but it was because I'd have a lights-out defense and a good offense that would score enough to win.  Instead, I have a mediocre defense and an outstanding offense.  Since I've spent much more time trying to diagnose and fix the defense, I'm making the whiny post above asking if zone is broken.

I totally agree, and I also felt like a crackpot whenever I began to take my own opinion seriously.

Posted by billscnb on 6/2/2011 6:55:00 PM (view original):
tldnr

Thanks for the feedback!

(Seriously, why bother making that post.  If I had simply said "zone's broken right now" and *didn't* elaborate, you would have attacked me for making the post with zero proof.)

In all seriousness, I do know why you would make that post.  Unfortunately, the trolling isn't going to get under my skin.  Hint for next time: bring up Ali Farokhmanesh, VCU, or Mike Bibby & Miles Simon.

FWIW even we scored 7 over our conference average against you, and we are really not very proficient yet.

Posted by kujayhawk on 6/2/2011 7:01:00 PM (view original):

Posted by billscnb on 6/2/2011 6:55:00 PM (view original):
tldnr

Thanks for the feedback!

(Seriously, why bother making that post.  If I had simply said "zone's broken right now" and *didn't* elaborate, you would have attacked me for making the post with zero proof.)

In all seriousness, I do know why you would make that post.  Unfortunately, the trolling isn't going to get under my skin.  Hint for next time: bring up Ali Farokhmanesh, VCU, or Mike Bibby & Miles Simon.

Haha I just like messing with people. It's a lot of info, I'm sure it's good, just like messin with people. And I love Ali Farokhmanesh. Never cheered harder for anything from Iowa. :)

For what it's worth, I haven't seen a drop off in zone defense since the 2/3 update.  I have zone teams in DII & DIII.  I DEFINITELY had to adjust sometime during 2010, when FG %s were adjusted upwards, particularly 3pt shooting; I've since run more 3-2 zone.

One possible (long shot) answer - have you gotten predictable on your defensive settings?  With my DIII team in Smith, I play most of my non-conference schedule against the same 6-7 coaches, and I face some coaches in conference play who've been game planning against me for at least 10 seasons, 25+ in some instances.  Whereas running a M2M or FCP doesn't give away your +/- setting, sometimes my 2-3 or 3-2 DOES give away what I'm going to do.  I've noticed a few coaches who, when seeing I'm running a 3-2 zone, will change their offensive settings to shoot very few 3s.  To keep them honest, I might run a 2-3 zone with a +3 or +4 setting instead of a 3-2 +1 zone.

Two other things that could be factors:

1) Your starters don't play a ton of minutes.  Your backups, though good defenders, aren't quite as good as your starters.  Maybe try giving the starters another 5 minutes or so per game.
2) Your team turns it over a little more than I'd expect (probably from the level of competition), so maybe opponents are getting some fast break hoops that are increasing the FG% slightly?

Your team and my DIII team's defensive performances are similar.  Here's a link to my DIII team - www.wisjournal.com/hd/TeamProfile/Ratings.aspx

Your team is better overall, but we are reasonably similar with regards to defensive statistics.  I think our weaker schedule probably is what's making our numbers a little better.

I'm not sure any of these theories are completely viable, but it's the best analysis I can give.

I went through about 15 of your games and didn't see you run any 3-2 zone. Maybe that has something to do with it?

My Wilmington team in Crum seems to be doing okay running a zone.  Also, bear in mind, I'm only running nine deep.  Granted my starters are pretty good for D2, but I think the zone is far from broken.  Just like any of the other defenses, having the right personnel is key.

I like angmar's idea. With zone, I would prefer to shorten my rotation. I started a thread 3 months ago, about a zone team going to the elite 8 playing only 6 players. Up the minutes of your best player, this one of the advantage of zone imo. 

As for the 2/3 update and your teams performance, maybe something did change. But w/o all the data and stats, it's hard to know for sure. I have a D3 zone team myself and haven't seen much of a difference. 

Posted by haasdr on 6/2/2011 7:50:00 PM (view original):
For what it's worth, I haven't seen a drop off in zone defense since the 2/3 update.  I have zone teams in DII & DIII.  I DEFINITELY had to adjust sometime during 2010, when FG %s were adjusted upwards, particularly 3pt shooting; I've since run more 3-2 zone.

One possible (long shot) answer - have you gotten predictable on your defensive settings?  With my DIII team in Smith, I play most of my non-conference schedule against the same 6-7 coaches, and I face some coaches in conference play who've been game planning against me for at least 10 seasons, 25+ in some instances.  Whereas running a M2M or FCP doesn't give away your +/- setting, sometimes my 2-3 or 3-2 DOES give away what I'm going to do.  I've noticed a few coaches who, when seeing I'm running a 3-2 zone, will change their offensive settings to shoot very few 3s.  To keep them honest, I might run a 2-3 zone with a +3 or +4 setting instead of a 3-2 +1 zone.

Two other things that could be factors:

1) Your starters don't play a ton of minutes.  Your backups, though good defenders, aren't quite as good as your starters.  Maybe try giving the starters another 5 minutes or so per game.
2) Your team turns it over a little more than I'd expect (probably from the level of competition), so maybe opponents are getting some fast break hoops that are increasing the FG% slightly?

Your team and my DIII team's defensive performances are similar.  Here's a link to my DIII team - www.wisjournal.com/hd/TeamProfile/Ratings.aspx

Your team is better overall, but we are reasonably similar with regards to defensive statistics.  I think our weaker schedule probably is what's making our numbers a little better.

I'm not sure any of these theories are completely viable, but it's the best analysis I can give.

Thanks for the response haasdr.  To answer your questions:

1. Yes I am predictable, but actually much less so than in seasons prior.  When I had the top defense in D3 four seasons running, I *never* changed it.  Poor coaching on my part, but I was terrified to fix what wasn't broke.

I have been tweaking things a tiny bit but not all that much.  Primarily because there hasn't been much of  reason -- I'm playing mostly balanced scoring teams and my FG/FG3 is pretty balanced.  If I was giving up too many 2's or 3's I'd compensate but since I'm struggling equally on both I'm sticking to a balanced approach.  As a general rule, I don't think I'm being exploited by being "predictable", teams are loading up on 2's or 3's in any particular game against me.

2. I'm not sure what to say about my starters not playing much.  They don't have great stamina and that might be a bit of a problem.  That said, I run uptempo because I want my backups to play.  I have 9 players on my team that have 3+ years of experience.  (Two of my three sophomores were redshirted.)  My backups play a lot but so do my opponents' reserves.  Against most teams I have a greater advantage on the bench than I do in the starting lineup.  I might be wrong but I actually think the fact that my starters aren't playing as much as some other teams is probably actually helping since my opponents' starters are also sitting a bunch.

3. High turnovers is probably a combo of (1) competition, (2) uptempo, (3) poor team passing.  It probably is increasing the FG%.  It's a good point.  That said, if I had to guess, my outstanding shot blocking probably is causing more misses than my turnovers are causing excess layups.  So it might explain a bit but probably not a lot.


It's an interesting way to look at things though.  I might be futilely looking for a single cause to my (relative) struggles but this could just be a bunch of small things that a better recruited/coached team could avoid.

Posted by tianyi7886 on 6/2/2011 9:41:00 PM (view original):
I went through about 15 of your games and didn't see you run any 3-2 zone. Maybe that has something to do with it?

I don't know how to answer that.  I've never run a 3-2 zone.  I've likely run a 3-2 zone less than a dozen times in my 25 seasons at Thomas.  I don't think I've run a 3-2 the past 10 seasons.  The four seasons I had the top defense I was exclusive 2-3 (+2).

I've actually thought about switching it up.  But I don't think I can.  (I actually created a thread about the topic.)  I don't think with Miller as my SF, I can run 3-2.  He just doesn't have the skill set where you'd want him in a 3-2 compared to a 2-3.

I do like the fact that angmar is currently having success.  (Although I'm a bit tempered by the fact that the SOS isn't terrific.)

tianyi7886 - I hate to ask, but for your Elite 8 team, did you have good defense?  I'm winning most my games right now and while it's unlikely I make the Elite 8 with this squad, I'd say I'd have maybe a 20-30% chance of doing the same.  But it would be in spite of my zone, not because of it.  I had a truly terrible defense last season for a human coached team and I still made the Sweet 16.  But it was because my offense as just as good as my defense was bad.

Posted by kujayhawk on 6/3/2011 12:21:00 PM (view original):
I do like the fact that angmar is currently having success.  (Although I'm a bit tempered by the fact that the SOS isn't terrific.)

tianyi7886 - I hate to ask, but for your Elite 8 team, did you have good defense?  I'm winning most my games right now and while it's unlikely I make the Elite 8 with this squad, I'd say I'd have maybe a 20-30% chance of doing the same.  But it would be in spite of my zone, not because of it.  I had a truly terrible defense last season for a human coached team and I still made the Sweet 16.  But it was because my offense as just as good as my defense was bad.

I don't keep stats but I don't think my opp shot much better than .410 in any season. 

I mentioned the 3-2 zone simply because my team was getting killed behind the arc. Opp would shoot .400 on the season, but .330-.350 from 3pt land. I think with the way most offense are run (backcourt heavy offense) you have to mix in a 3-2 zone against these teams or you will be playing at a huge disadvantage.