Provided you are playing in an Open League, and you aren't using an extreme piticher's park... it is most likely that he will eventually drift to somewhere within his performance history parameters.

So, unless you can do some WW financial hocus-pocus and come up with some extra cash to be able to pick up a better OF, I'd say keep him.

It is an Open League, and I'm playing in Griffith Stadium, which is -2 HR and -1 2B. I'm batting him 6th right now does that matter at all? I hope he can turn it around, I'm going to need him.

In the 301 times he has been used he has never batted below .300.

There's no way of knowing this.  I know the Performance History page lists his worst season, but if you look at the fine print below it says "Best/worst batting statistics are based on runs created."  So although he hit over .300 in his worst season, it's possible that on other occasions he hit under .300 (and created more runs).

As for the WW, I'd keep him.  The only time I'd drop someone with a high salary like Carey's is if I lucked out with a good rookie and could upgrade using the WW (i.e., by getting fewer but better PA).

While I'm sure that others may very well disagree, but since I have no problem dumping any player, considering his cost and the fact that you're more than one-third of the way into the season, I'd be very close to dumping Carey because what he's giving you can hardly be said to justify his cost. Picking up a player on the wire at his salary is much more likely to give you a lot more than what Carey is currently giving you.  But you have to be prudent about it and not just dump him for the sake of dumping him because he's hitting bad.  The player you exchange him for must be a good fit for your park and have similar qualities as Carey. As for him reaching his history numbers, being that he's already had more than one-third of the season to do it - but yet, hasn't - I believe he will be very hard pressed to come anywhere close to them.  I'd say he'll finish up with an average somewhere between .270-.280.  Definitely not .300.

On the flip side, if you say your team is doing "alright' without his bat, if you feel that you have a better team than your main competition, then by all means ride it out with him at least until the transaction deadline and see where he is. 

Griffith shouldn't be hurting him too much in terms of his BA/OBP.  Patience should reward you.*

*not a guarantee

mixtroy and I differ on WW usage and results.

Posted by eastvanmungo on 8/13/2011 1:07:00 AM (view original):
Griffith shouldn't be hurting him too much in terms of his BA/OBP.  Patience should reward you.*

*not a guarantee

mixtroy and I differ on WW usage and results.

Yes, I'm sure a lot of owners disagree with me as to when to dump a player, but dumping underachieving players has worked well for me and I do it all the time. This is because I've seen many good teams miss the playoffs due to holding onto a grossly underachieving expensive player instead of dumping him at a point where they would still have time to make the playoffs. I just don't get the concept of holding onto an expensive .330 hitter who may be hitting only .260 or so at or near the transaction deadline, regardless of what his history indicates. 

Another thing to be mindful of is that in this game, we're playing only for the season at hand, where the winner takes all, unlike a progressive where a player's history may carry more weight. So, for that one season, and one season only, me personally, I would any player, even 1911 Ty Cobb, if he was hitting 60-70 points below his history average at the deadline. 

Ha ha ha.  Good one Thunder, but there was no "diss" intended by failing to include Weapons Grade in the "force to be reckoned with" category.  Those other two teams are just winning at outrageous paces and will finish with a ton of wins. Nonetheless, Thunder, if you noticed, in that very same league we're in, I dumped four starting positions players, one (the SS) because I had a way better hitting and fielding AAA SS, and the others (23 Joe Sewell, 88 Tip O'Neil and 72 Hebner - all pretty good players with excellent histories) simply because I wasn't getting anywhere near what their histories indicated and my team was stumbling along. At the time I dumped them (the transaction deadline) I was about 7 games out of first. However, after exchanging them for 89 HoJo, 92 John Kruk, and 27 Cobb, I'm now only 1 game out and knocking at the door as we head to the final stretch.  Now, my question to you is, considering that the team is now only one game out, was I justified in dumping those guys at the deadline with only 40 games left and time running out instead of hoping that "probility" and "randomness" would suddenly propel them up to their history performances when it hadn't for 120 games? Ha ha.

Posted by contrarian23 on 8/13/2011 12:56:00 PM (view original):
A couple of things:

1.) mixtroy, I'm not interested in continuing to debate the underlying issue of whether you should dump players for underperformance - you've got your opinions, I've got mine, and I doubt either of us is going to convince the other to change his mind.  And as I've said before, while I disagree with you over WHEN/WHY to use the ww, I think you're one of the savviest owners on WIS in HOW to use the ww.
2.) For what it's worth, I literally never even look at performance histories in deciding the players I want.  I am solely interested in the underlying numbers and whether they fit the strategy I'm working on.

But in answer to your direct question, I would say this was a good move for you.  Not because of anything to do with slumps or underperformance, but because I think you guys you picked up are better, taken collectively, than the guys you dropped.  Just looking at them, I see a weighted OPS# of the 3 new guys at .914, with the old guys at .904. 

Plus:
-- New guys are $2M cheaper
-- 89 Hojo is a well known cookie because his power normalizes so well
-- The distribution of PA is much better.  You had too few with Hebner, and were paying for too many with Sewell.

And of course, the critical enabling factor is that you had a AAA SS that allowed you to make some moves.  I often use the ww when I get unexpectedly good AAA.

As always, good points Contrarian.  I actually had to trade for that AAA SS whom, like any good AAA player I might get at a critical position, I stashed away in AAA to conserve his PAs for the end game.