Out Pitch Topic

rangerup
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I have usually looked for at least two good pitches in my pitchers.  I prefer the starters to have at least 4 pitches, and love when they have 5, even if the 5th is a 45 rating.  My relievers should have 3 pitches, and a minimum of 2 (can't remember if I have ever seen a pitcher with only 1 pitch, probably not). 

Since P1 is the setup pitch, and P2 is considered the "out" pitch (whatever that may be....maybe the one most often called on with 2 strikes??), does anyone have experience with P2 being higher rated than the P1?   The sim considers the pitches in their order, with P1 being thrown most often and on down the line (DevChat's have confirmed this).

I don't have hard data, but I have had pitchers with a P1-P2 of about 75 but a P4 at something like 95, and they were not as effective as similar pitchers that had their most highly rated pitch at P1. 

I am wondering what kind of career a pitcher may have if his P1 is say, 80, with his P2 at say, 95.  Does he just put dudes away?
6/7/2012 10:26 AM
trietnguyen
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P1 is out pitch. P2 is used to set up P1
6/7/2012 12:59 PM
a_ersberg
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I think tec posted a link or results of some stats that showed p2 was used the most. More than p1.
6/7/2012 1:03 PM
tecwrg
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Posted by a_ersberg on 6/7/2012 1:03:00 PM (view original):
I think tec posted a link or results of some stats that showed p2 was used the most. More than p1.
Nope, not me.

My understanding is that individual pitches are not thrown in the sim.  The pitch ratings are weighted, such that P1 > P2 > P3 > P4 > P5, and the weighted average is used as part of a much larger algorithm in determining the outcome of a plate appearance.
6/7/2012 1:13 PM
bigal888
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Posted by tecwrg on 6/7/2012 1:13:00 PM (view original):
Posted by a_ersberg on 6/7/2012 1:03:00 PM (view original):
I think tec posted a link or results of some stats that showed p2 was used the most. More than p1.
Nope, not me.

My understanding is that individual pitches are not thrown in the sim.  The pitch ratings are weighted, such that P1 > P2 > P3 > P4 > P5, and the weighted average is used as part of a much larger algorithm in determining the outcome of a plate appearance.
This is the understanding I have as well.  It's been stated many times that individual pitches are not thrown in the sim.  You are much better off with one or two pitches rated really high than a couple of good ones with a couple poorly rated pitches thrown in the bunch.
6/7/2012 1:28 PM
rangerup
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DevChat has stated that P2 is the out pitch.  This would lead me to believe that they are not weighted.  What kind of pitch it is doesn't really matter (curve, change, etc.) but the P# does in the grand scheme of when or how often it is used.  P1 is the set up pitch and P2 is the out pitch according to DevChat.
6/7/2012 1:39 PM
MikeT23
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Then the DevChat you're seeing is contradictory to what's been repeated time and again by ADMIN.
6/7/2012 1:41 PM
rangerup
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Been a while since I read it so I went and found it.  trietnguyen was right, I had it backwards, my apologies.  My question would still stand, although it does look like pitches are "used" independently and not weighted by the answer.  So taking two pitchers each with 5 pitches weighted to an average pitch rating of, say, 75, they may not produce equally, depending on where the ratings fall in the P#. Under this answer you would want to look for P1 with the highest rating, P2 next and so on.

So there isnt much of a difference between an 80/60/70 pitcher and a 70/80/60? ( - All-Star - 2:25 PM)

Generally, a pitcher's first pitch is considered his out pitch, his second pitch is used to set up his out pitch and the other pitches are off speed or off balance pitches. That is the way the engine views them, so in your example there is a difference between the two pitchers.

6/7/2012 1:54 PM
rangerup
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The way the engine views pitches may explain why this guy Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Sterling Steele  (weighted avg 70.75)while clearly looking like the better pitcher, is not quite as productive as this guy Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Deivi Guerrero  (weighted avg 70.25) who both play on the same team of mine.  Although their avg is very close.

Deivi's P1 rating (and maybe groundball efficiency), coupled with a slightly less rating on subsequent pitches more than compensates for Steele's P4 rating and overall much better ratings elsewhere.
6/7/2012 2:00 PM
MikeT23
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Those two pitchers, despite similar results, aren't similar pitchers in any way, shape or form.
6/7/2012 2:09 PM
rangerup
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I didn't think so either.  But I also think it is beyond SSS and Deivi is dealing.  Got me to thinking why that might be.
6/7/2012 2:10 PM
MikeT23
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No, it's beyond SSS.   But one guy is a splits/vel guy and the other is a pitches/GB guy. 

Both can be effective.   I don't think you've stumbled across something new.

6/7/2012 2:13 PM
a_ersberg
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This guy Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Derrick Hooper has a significantly better pitch 2 than pitch 1, and was pretty damn effective this year. 
6/7/2012 2:15 PM
tecwrg
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Posted by rangerup on 6/7/2012 2:00:00 PM (view original):
The way the engine views pitches may explain why this guy Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Sterling Steele  (weighted avg 70.75)while clearly looking like the better pitcher, is not quite as productive as this guy Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Deivi Guerrero  (weighted avg 70.25) who both play on the same team of mine.  Although their avg is very close.

Deivi's P1 rating (and maybe groundball efficiency), coupled with a slightly less rating on subsequent pitches more than compensates for Steele's P4 rating and overall much better ratings elsewhere.
I don't think you understand what a weighted average is, since you are just adding their P1-P4's together and dividing by 4.  That's a straight average, not a weighted average.

A weighted average might be something like ((P1 *.4)  + (P2 * .3) + (P3 * .2) + (P4 * .1)), such that P1 is weighted more heavily than P2, and so on.  I'm just guessing at the weights, we don't know what the actual weights would be in the sim (if they even do it that way).  I would also guess that all the weights would add up to 1.00.

But using that formula as an example, the two pitchers weighted average would be:

Steele: 69.9
Guerrero: 75.6

In that case, Guerreo's weighted pitches are noticibly higher than Steele's, instead of how you calculated them with Steele's pitches slightly better than Guerrero's.
6/7/2012 2:37 PM
rangerup
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You could be right, and that shows that you would want the ratings to start higher and go lower, everything else being equal.  This guy would probably not be very effective: P1=45, P2=42, P3=76, P4=100, P5=100
6/7/2012 2:44 PM
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