Posted by bistiza on 10/19/2012 10:29:00 AM (view original):
Also, I have found that SPD and BH are necessary for good 3 point shooters. I like to have my 3 point shooters have a minimum of 60 speed, 60 perimeter, and 50 BH at DIII.
I'm not denying that SPD and BH can be important, but last season at my DIII team I had a player who is now at 49 SPD, 51 BH and 86 PER (and he gained some in all of those so he was less than that at times) shoot over 47 percent from three and he took a decent number of them too.
I don't think it's necessary to have tremendous SPD and BH to make a guy be a good three point shooter, especially at the DIII level. It's always nice to have those things, but I think once a player gets beyond 80 in PER he'll shoot good on threes almost no matter what because the quality of defenders he is facing across a season isn't that high at DIII that he needs the extra SPD to get around them or the extra BH to hold onto the ball as well. It's nice to have and probably helps, but not necessary to shoot well at DIII. Just my opinion.
schedule strength really makes these sort of overall percent figures relatively useless as points of comparison. theres plenty of teams ive had with 2 or 3 of the top five 3 point shooters in the nation and none cracked the top 10 in 3pt% (with #1 sos).
in particular, against weaker teams, high per unsupported can be much more effective. my guess is that if you watched that player against a bunch of NT quality teams, you'd have seen a much lower 3pt%.
to the OP - heres how it works. perimeter is the #1 stat for 3 point shooting, but you can have successful 3 point shooters without stellar per numbers. basically, if you think of it like this, it will serve you well. spd/bh and to a significantly lesser extent, ath, help you get open looks. per is what really impacts if the ball goes in when you toss it up. if you are taking a lot of highly contested shots, any player will struggle, no matter what the per. if you are taking a lot of wide open looks, players can be very very successful even with only good per.
so what the ratio of the importance of these stats are changes based on your situation and goals. when i had about the best team in the country every single year, and i only determined success by championship or not, i only cared about the ratings in relation to the absolute best teams. for those teams, its ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL that you have great spd/bh to get better looks. my best 3 point shooters (in the big games, not by season % persay) were often my 90 spd/bh 80 per type guys, not my 75-80 bh/pass 90-95 per type guys. in these cases, i figured 1 point of per was worth at most 1.5 points of speed, for a high caliber (among best in nation type) shooting guard. now, thats from a PURE SCORING standpoint ONLY, that does not include defense or anything, and obviously i would rank speed as the #1 attribute in those cases in general.
now, if you are building a team, trying to become a regular NT team, and maybe win a couple NT games here and there, your competition is lower. you will face lower quality defense and per becomes the dominant stat by a wide margin, its probably worth at least double any other stat (again, from a PURELY OFFENSE standpoint ONLY). the reason being, you are going to naturally get better looks against shittier defense, so you need per to take advantage of those looks more than you need spd/bh to get better looks.
hopefully that gives you some idea.
note that offense set plays a MAJOR role in 3 point scoring. opinions vary about the impact of offenses but ive studied it as much (or more) than anyone, and i almost always focus my offense around 3 point / guard scoring, and its very very obvious to me that 3 point scoring is one of the biggest, if not THE biggest difference in how offenses work with respect to player ratings. in flex and triangle, you really need that high per rating to be a very successful 3 point scorer. in motion, its much more reliant on spd/per than triangle/flex, and you can get awesome efficiency without the lofty per numbers. fastbreak is its own beast, ath/spd take a premium role with per taking a lesser role like motion (maybe even less than motion), and bh im not too sure about, fb is not my specialty. note that per is always going to be very important for 3 point shooting, its pretty much always your most important stat for well formed high end players, but theres a huge range in variance (it could be barely the most important, or it could be 2x any other stat). for example, in d1, ive had insanely good performance out of my motion offense guards with 95 spd/bh 80 per type guys. but in a triangle set, that player will be good, sure, but not a world beater, not in the elite d1 play (this was during the coin flip dynasty days, when there were a lot more talented players, too). in triangle, youd be significantly better off with a 85 spd/bh 100 per guy (thats trading 1 point of bh or spd for 1 point of per). but in motion, id actually probably take that 95 spd/bh 80 per type guy, again OFFENSE ONLY. if you are thinking, that goes against what i said - per is probably always #1 - note that for a 95 spd/bh 80 per motion offense player, if i could pick 1 point to improve, it would be to go up to 81 per. its not always black and white, but what i said is effectively true - for an elite, best in the country type player, or for any general well-formed offense-oriented guard - you always would take that 1 point of per if you could take 1 point (offense only). just like with bigs, there are bigs you'd rather have 1 or 10 points of reb than 1 or 10 points of ath. but for a best in the country type big, you'd ALWAYS take the 1 point of ath.
anyway, hope that helps. let me know if you have any follow-ups...
10/19/2012 11:38 AM (edited)