Posted by emy1013 on 3/20/2014 11:11:00 PM (view original):
Damn, I'm 12/12 so far on one of my ESPN brackets, should have went for the billion!
i had the first 10, NC st screwed me dropping that 16 point lead, or i'd be well on my way to being a billionaire ;)
im sure i have 0 chance of ranking top 20, but the billion was impossible from the start - your expected value from entering is well under a penny. but with 2million split equally across the top 20 entrants, and with 15m max entrants, its at least 13 cents for entering. thats better i guess, hehe ;) and im not sure if they maxed out at 15m, maybe theres only 5m and its like 40 cents??
i think the 15m cap was to stop programmatic entrants. i still feel like the actual chance of losing legit is a minor factor in the cost of the insurance - that is like, 10 grand roughly, maybe 100k worst case. but the chance of someone hacking the system, or fixing games if they get close, or something... i feel like that (especially the hacking the system) is more risky. maybe i should go change my nc st pick... :O actually, they probably made a hard copy backup of the entrants at 1am today when they closed the challenge - then put that data on a machine with no network access, so they could verify the winner, without that machine having internet access and possibly being modified, too. you still have the risk of an inside job though i guess