Posted by the0nlyis on 2/24/2016 9:26:00 PM (view original):
Posted by possumfiend on 2/24/2016 8:32:00 PM (view original):
Very possible to be successful at D1 with just 1 Big on the roster ... this is a monster of a team ... runs Triangle/FCP and the one big man starts but only averages 19.3 mpg. Oldman does start an SF at the 4 but his REB rating is only a 37.
https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/TeamProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=8825
wow I can't believe they are only getting out rebounded by 0.5 thats crazy
dont read into that. in his half dozenish games against top 10 rpi opponents, he has predictably gotten wrecked on the boards. the thing about team averages, even as a bcs team against a solid sos (10 in his case), it just doesn't represent what really happens in games against top tier d1 teams.
edit: just to expound on that a bit, the thing is about d2/d3 (unless its changed), is that outside the top team or two, there isn't usually a huge disparity between say the #5 and #30 team. its substantial, sure. but in d1, that difference is often a hundred points (of overall rating). nobody plays all top 10 teams all year, so even a strong SOS, you typically only have a handful of games against top tier teams. for oldman to have a half dozen of those, on a #10 sos, is pretty high, actually. and he got beaten badly on the boards over those 6 games, lost all 6 and got creamed in a couple. on average, its a BIG difference.
this plays into what i was saying earlier. of course, you can have a good 4 guard starter team. but, it gets harder and harder to make up for the rebounding hit, the better your opponents are. top d1 teams are so good in all categories, great on D, great scoring wise, great rebounders, with great guard skills. how much more can you improve in those areas? i don't think there is enough room there, to improve over roughly 90s in everything, to compensate for the comparably huge rebounding weakness. now, i do think 4 guard squads could win d1 titles, there's no doubt really. but i'm almost positive that at some point, at least by say when you are trying to build the kind of teams who position you to win a string of titles in a short time, that 4 guards would make that significantly harder. my feeling is the tipping point is around the championship seeking level (top 5ish d1 play, roughly), where 4 guard teams would really have to succeed in spite of having 4 guards. just my take, could be higher, could be lower, but i definitely think the strategy has a ceiling for where it remains effective.
2/24/2016 10:59 PM (edited)