School A
Prestige: B
Wants to Play: Very Good
Success: Good
Perimeter Offense: Very Bad
Fullcourt Press: Neutral
Strong Conference: Good
Wants Long Time Coach: Very Good

Attention Points: 1223
Promised Minutes: 20
Promised Start: No
HVs: 20
CVs: 1

School B
Prestige: B
Wants to Play: Very Good
Success: Good
Perimeter Offense: Neutral
Fullcourt Press: Neutral
Strong Conference: Very Good
Wants Long Time Coach: Very Good

Attention Points: 578
Promised Minutes: 25
Promised Start: Yes
HVs: 20
CVs: 1

Guess the percentages on the dice roll. Go!

How early in the process did the coaches promise their start and minutes? Did either start at lower minutes then bump it up mid-recruiting?

Not sure, but let's assume both promised starts/minutes early on.

70-30 advantage school B

60-40 for school B

Posted by dillon_b12 on 5/1/2019 11:03:00 AM (view original):
School A
Prestige: B
Wants to Play: Very Good
Success: Good
Perimeter Offense: Very Bad
Fullcourt Press: Neutral
Strong Conference: Good
Wants Long Time Coach: Very Good

Attention Points: 1223
Promised Minutes: 20
Promised Start: No
HVs: 20
CVs: 1

School B
Prestige: B
Wants to Play: Very Good
Success: Good
Perimeter Offense: Neutral
Fullcourt Press: Neutral
Strong Conference: Very Good
Wants Long Time Coach: Very Good

Attention Points: 578
Promised Minutes: 25
Promised Start: Yes
HVs: 20
CVs: 1

Guess the percentages on the dice roll. Go!

90% effort team a 100% effort team b.

Which sounds like you are trying to say 55-45 for school B

I have it pretty close to 50-50, it really depends on the quality of the prestige though. A High B could be 30% better than a low B.

It ended up being 49% Team A, 51% Team B.

Team B won the roll.

https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/RecruitProfile/Ratings.aspx?rid=4672500

Needless to say, I am very sad.

Man I am good at this.

What would you say is the primary factor here that caused my AP to not mean much?

It's possible St. John's has Very Good for success and Good for Perimeter Offense, but he hasn't answered me about those, so I can't be sure.

It seems like the extra minutes and the start are potentially massive.

If at D1 the A vs B prestige is usually noticeable. Maybe in the 30-40% range. That could be equal to another 6+ HV or +400 AP bump for Team A.

However, the preferences can be huge. The Very Bad vs Neutral, and the Neutral vs Good, probably more than makes up for the prestige advantage. This negates the prestige bumps I listed.

@ D2 that advantage drops quite a bit. Probably less than 10%. At D3 even less of an advantage.

This is D1 and we both are B prestige.

Sorry about the miss on prestige. I saw team A and assumed a higher prestige of A.

My guess is the minor difference in preferences. The +2 in perimeter and +1 in conf strength are worth quite a bit.
Instead of prestige B vs B, it was more like prestige B vs A. The second team gets the prestige bumps of +400 AP or +6-8 HV I mentioned earlier.

Starts and extra minutes have stand alone value apart from the modifier, and it is pretty significant. You stayed in contention with the AP; if you hadn’t prioritized the guy much more than your rival (with AP), it would have been a blowout based on preferences.