Data taken from Phelan

Tier	Conference	Team	Coach	Status
1	ACC	Duke	Texashick	FIRED*
1	ACC	UNC	indiansrck27	FIRED
1	ACC	Maryland	cem6989	FIRED**
1	BE	UConn	Ceej_Money	FIRED
1	BE	Syracuse	taylorn	FIRED
1	B10	Illinois	slayterhill	1 season
1	B10	MSU	marq95	FIRED
1	B12	Kansas	epic2008	FIRED
1	P10	Arizona	bmillerua	FIRED*
1	P10	UCLA	buddhagamer	Safe
1	SEC	Kentucky	skinzfan36	FIRED*
2	ACC	NC State	Sim	n/a
2	ACC	Georgia Tech	garbage29	Safe
2	ACC	Boston College	tkimble	Safe
2	ACC	Wake Forest	Sim	n/a
2	ACC	Virginia	AZHawg22	FIRED
2	BE	Georgetown	bobby2c	FIRED
2	BE	Cincinnati	dacamel14	FIRED*
2	BE	Villanova	littlegiant0	FIRED
2	BE	Pittsburgh	tissot	FIRED
2	B10	Purdue	dabomb	HOT SEAT
2	B10	OSU	geneferrell	FIRED
2	B10	Wisconsin	Poopshoe3	Safe
2	B10	Indiana	crex649	FIRED
2	B12	Oklahoma	brokenee	HOT SEAT
2	P10	Stanford	beanorocks	FIRED*
2	SEC	Arkansas	Toughluck	FIRED
2	SEC	Tennessee	Baums_away	FIRED
2	SEC	Florida	Kimball	FIRED**
3	ACC	Miami	gaheel	1 season
3	ACC	Clemson	phillyboy107	HOT SEAT
3	ACC	Virginia Tech	Sim	n/a
3	ACC	Florida State	flyer497	FIRED*
3	A10	Xavier	kb22	HOT SEAT
3	A10	Temple	mikesons1973	FIRED
3	A10	St. Josephs	Coachdeal10	FIRED*
3	A10	Dayton	Robertoo	FIRED**
3	BE	West Virginia	Grennest	HOT SEAT
3	BE	Providence	npb7768	FIRED
3	BE	Seton Hall	tristandavis	Safe
3	BE	St. John's	bert_fischer	Safe
3	B10	ND	raider45638	HOT SEAT
3	B10	Michigan	bballer2117	FIRED
3	B10	Minnesota	nickjyd	Safe
3	B10	Iowa	hawkfan1992	Safe
3	B12	Iowa State	Sim	n/a
3	B12	Texas A&M	Gorangers16	HOT SEAT
3	B12	Texas Tech	Sim	n/a
3	B12	Texas	chapelhillne	Safe
3	B12	Missouri	DrewMit	FIRED
3	CUSA	Memphis	Sim	n/a
3	Horizon	Marquette	Loafergoat	FIRED
3	Horizon	Depaul	jaycee	FIRED*
3	MWC	Utah	Adjacent	FIRED*
3	MWC	UNLV	lotsabooze	FIRED
3	P10	Oregon	goatmilk	FIRED
3	P10	Oregon State	pnedwek	HOT SEAT
3	P10	USC	idave101	Safe
3	P10	Arizona State	kbadgley	FIRED*
3	P10	Cal	camjam	FIRED
3	P10	Washington	Wolfman44	FIRED
3	P10	Washington State	Aromano	Safe
3	SEC	LSU	oldman	Safe
3	SEC	Vanderbilt	crushthebean	HOT SEAT
3	SEC	Auburn	Thunderduck	FIRED
3	SEC	Alabama	stockplayer	Safe
3	SEC	Georgia	Sim	n/a
3	SEC	Mississippi	treyman	FIRED
3	SEC	MIssissippi St	scottyj74	Safe
3	SEC	South Carolina	matt191519	2 seasons
3	WCC	Gonzaga	cincy3217	Safe

*from first 4-5 seasons.
**from first 4-5 seasons and later won title
Hot Seat = Last 3 seasons have not met standards

All Tiers
Fired	Safe
71%	29%

Tier 1
Fired	Safe
90%	10%

Tier 2
Fired	Safe
79%	21%

Tier 3
Fired	Safe
61%	39%

Fired	First 4-5 seasons	>5 seasons
36	12	24

Fired	Safe	Hot Seat
36	16	9

Yeah, they're definitely gonna need to relax those requirements a bit.

So from the T1 group, only yours truly would of likely survived. I think texashick might of even got the axe @ Duke if it was set at 4 seasons as he didn't get to S16 until his 5th one.

Honestly it would be better to be at a lower prestige school (like Iowa/Colorado) which you can move up to A+ if the location is better.

Posted by buddhagamer on 5/27/2021 9:09:00 PM (view original):
So from the T1 group, only yours truly would of likely survived. I think texashick might of even got the axe @ Duke if it was set at 4 seasons as he didn't get to S16 until his 5th one.

Honestly it would be better to be at a lower prestige school (like Iowa/Colorado) which you can move up to A+ if the location is better.

Damn you're right! I'll fix it.

So 90% of people who get tier 1 jobs would be fired.

I mean c'mon, this should have been more well thought out.

I mean. come on.

good stuff - seeing high end coaches, coach/program combos really, such as skinzfan / UK and kimball / florida, programs all the high end phelan d1 teams surely respect and hope to steer clear of in the NT.... on the list... i think is important. kimball took a while to get his feet under him at florida so perhaps a bit less egregious (but i think he was getting into fb/fcp - its important for coaches to be able to try new things in high d1), but man, look at this kentucky resume

Hoops Dynasty – College Basketball Sim Games - Team Profile (whatifsports.com)

titles in seasons 117, 126, and 139. but he'd have been fired seasons 98-103 (6 seasons - his first 6 - so even with a 6 season window for new coaches, fired). then fired again seasons 120-123, just 2 seasons removed from national championships on both sides.

Posted by buddhagamer on 5/27/2021 9:09:00 PM (view original):
So from the T1 group, only yours truly would of likely survived. I think texashick might of even got the axe @ Duke if it was set at 4 seasons as he didn't get to S16 until his 5th one.

Honestly it would be better to be at a lower prestige school (like Iowa/Colorado) which you can move up to A+ if the location is better.

Yeah forget winning a title with a D baseline prestige team. Just keeping your job is now the most difficult HD achievement!

I'm shocked they didn't run these numbers before coming up with the criteria. Surely this percentage isn't what was intended.

Posted by Basketts on 5/27/2021 9:58:00 PM (view original):
I'm shocked they didn't run these numbers before coming up with the criteria. Surely this percentage isn't what was intended.

they did say it was based on average performance... but it sort of sounds like they based that on the average performance over 4 seasons or something! instead of looking at how many coaches would get fired during their tenure.

in real life there are a crap ton of firings, i'm not totally convinced the above isn't their goal... on the up side, they might go with chap's idea to make firings random, and between that and the bugs we should probably expect after that jobs change, it would keep things REAL interesting. we could spend lots of time debating whether someone was supposed to get fired, or if it was just a bad dice roll, or just a glitch in the system. hilarious! except i guess for the coaches who actually get fired. but silver lining, sounds like that would be most of us, so at least we'd have good company!

Posted by Basketts on 5/27/2021 9:58:00 PM (view original):
I'm shocked they didn't run these numbers before coming up with the criteria. Surely this percentage isn't what was intended.

Haha yeah for sure. Unless their goal is to completely kill HD by ******* off coaches and making them quit playing.

seems like design reflects a fundamental stat error. A given average score may - in fact should be expected - to include streaks of well below average data. A mere average will not be an adequate tool for determining where to set the bar. Variability and distro will matter a lot

This point is made more significant if measuring a rather volatile bit of data like annual NT result which has lots of randomness. Less random measures such as a rolling average NT result or RPI or others (not saying any one should be used - just that there exist less volatile metrics)

So are we going to end up with SIM coached Elite teams after all the qualified coaches get fired and there are no qualified replacements? Seems like a good business model...

This just doesn't seem like a desirable outcome. How many coaches will just leave the game after getting randomly fired? I'm not opposed to firings but they should be reserved for the outliers and abandoned ships.

Great job colleting data Benis. I only did a few conferences but we were thinking the same.

I decided to check my own results. In my opinion, the Utah and Cuse jobs are examples of needing more time. I would have been fired at Utah but made the tourney in my 6th season. I took over Cuse that was a huge dumpster fire and would definitely be fired after next season.

Syracuse	Hot Seat
MSU	Safe
Utah	Fired*
Georgia Tech	Safe
Memphis	Safe