In the recently completed Rupp recruiting session, I battled wronoj in D2 for a SG. My school has a B- prestige, and his had a C-. We both had 6 schollies of cash available to us with minimal postseason bonus money factored in. I was 160 miles from him, and wronoj was 300 miles away (it was either 300 or 340, so to be conservative I’ll go with 300). We exchanged sitemails after recruiting was done and he was cool with me posting this in the forums to get some feedback from other coaches.
Here’s how the costs of recruiting actions broke down for us:
Eval / HV / CV
Me: $182 / 332 / 804
Wronoj: $285 / 435 / 1037
So, an eval was 57% more expensive for him, an HV 31% more, and a CV 29% more.
I could post the exact recruiting breakdowns day by day for each of us but I’ll hold off for now so I don’t clutter things up too much. Plus, I just don’t think they’re vital in this case as I explain a little below. So in lieu of that, here’s the summary of each of our recruiting efforts:
Me: Guaranteed 15 mins
20 letters
6 calls / 3 coach calls
26 evals
20 HVs
0 CV’s
Total = $11,914
Wronoj: Guaranteed Start + 20 mins
0 letters
25 calls / 0 coach calls
15 evals
8 HVs
5 CVs
Total = $12,760
He began considering me in the early morning of the first full day of recruiting, and I think wronoj showed up a few cycles later. And from then on, the recruiting battle was always pretty close, and we kept flip-flopping him as expressed in the scholarship emails we were getting from him. The point here is that neither of us had a substantially earlier recruiting effort or a significant period where there was a big lead by one of us.
Now I obviously didn’t know how much he was spending but here was my thought process from the start of the battle. I had a FULL LETTER grade better prestige and had a slight distance advantage. From previous forum threads I’ve read, I remembered that a full grade makes it such that the lower prestige team almost has to spend double the amount as the higher prestige team. So I felt I was in good shape. And given the slight distance advantages I seemed to have, I felt even more convinced that there was no way I could lose this kid if I spent my full remaining cash balance on him, which at the time would put me with ~$13K in him if push came to shove, making him need ~$24K to reach my level of effort. Since we each started with just over $30k and he had some kids considering him and needed to fill 7 total schollies, I felt really, really good with the way the battle was going to end.
Skipping ahead to the last day of recruiting after I seemed to hold the edge for him based on his scholarship email to me, I felt wronoj was out of cash and it was just a matter of time before he signed with me. But it wasn’t meant to be, as I got a scholly email from him and I could tell I was behind. But by this point I was basically tapped out of funds and he signed with wronoj.
I tried to figure out where I went wrong. But when wronoj told me in sitemail what he spent on him, I was really, really shocked. He basically spent the same amount as I did, and even though I had a B- vs. his C-, that part really didn’t seem to come into play. So ignoring all the minor calls and letters, I tried putting all my efforts on an apples to apples basis with him. My mental recruiting conversion goes like this: I’ve gotten kids to consider me with just 5 evals before, and I’ve gotten them to consider with 2 HVs, and I’ve also gotten them to consider with 1 CV, so to me 5 evals = 1 CV and 2 HVs = 1 CV. If I’m wrong in my analysis, it’s probably in these assumptions.
But using these assumptions, my 11 extra evals over the 15 he spent = 2 CVs, and my 12 extra HVs = ~6 CVs. So it would seem I spent 8 CVs vs. his 5 CVs. Now he did promise a 20 mins vs. my 15 mins, as well as a start. I think it was a couple of months ago where I read on a similar recruiting battle thread on the forums that a start only seemed to be worth about 2 CVs of effort. So that would make 7 CVs for him + whatever the 5 extra minutes he promised above my 15 minutes gets him.
In summary, the way I’m figuring things here, I put in the same effort as he did….but shouldn’t my prestige advantage have made me the overwhelming favorite to sign this kid? My full letter grade didn’t seem to play a role whatsoever.
Does a full letter grade from a B- to a C- have the same relative advantage as an A+ vs. a B+? If so, it seems like I got jobbed here. Maybe some other coaches can tell me where I’ve gone wrong with my analysis….or if I have a real beef. Something just doesn’t add up here for me.