Why did the pats go for it on fourth down from their own 30 yardline up six points with 2 mins to go? That is one of the dumbest things I have seen in awhile. Did they really not trust their defense that much? All I can say is wow.

Yea, awful call by Bellichek, but oh well I love seeing Peyton beat Brady, especially in that fashion. If Peyton wins MVP this year and a Super Bowl, he has to be in the conversation for GOAT.

I thought it was a bad call when I watched it too, but the more I think about it, the more I think it was the right call, and more than that, just a pure Belichick move.

He gets the first down, the pats win. He needs two yards. He has one of the best offenses in the history of the game. He tells Brady to go win the game.

The thing that has always made Belichick great is he plays to win. He doesn't play to not lose. He gambles a lot and wins a lot more than he loses.

The thing I thought was really uncharacteristic was that they burned all their timeouts and couldn't challenge the play. They are usually much better at clock management.

Also, I'm shocked he didn't just let the colts score from the 10 with a minute+ . They don't tackle the guy on the 1 yard line, they get the ball back with 65 seconds down one point. That would have been pure Belichick.

But the things is, if you don't get it you lose it's that simple. I don't think there is anyway to spin it on being a good move.

Bottom line - if the refs make the correct call (or if they review it), everyone is talking about how much of a genius Bill is. I had a feeling, that no matter where the Colts got the ball, there were going to drive down the field and get a TD. So I also think it was the right call. Both teams played great.

The Pats had Manning figured out and were limiting his ability all night. They had the gameplan to beat Manning, but they didn't trust it when the game was on the line and they needed a stop. The calculated move would have been to punt, but Brady or someone probably influenced belicheck's decision making. Being OVERagressive is just as bad as being too conservative and you wouldn't be playing to lose if you trusted your defense that was playing well against manning to stop him when it counted.

If you listen to Brady's comments post-game, I don't think you'd say he influenced Belichek's decision...

Going to be fun going into the locker room tomorrow and telling your defense why you didn't trust them enough to win the game...

I'm one of the biggest proponents of going for it on 4th down. I think most NFL and college coaches are way too conservative in 4th down situations. The metrics bear this out.

A big influence is the fact that, if you go for it and miss, you've opened yourself up to serious public/media criticism and scrutiny. In this day and age, very few coaches have the job security to withstand that sort of thing. Bellichek does.

That said, I thought it was an absolutely awful call considering where it was on the field. It's also sending a dangerous message to your defense about how little faith you have in them.

A buddy of mine who's an NFL beat writer said he liked it and compared it to walking Bonds w. the bases loaded, up 2 runs with two outs in the ninth. Interesting analogy, and I can appreciate having a healthy respect for Peyton, but I still think it was a terrible call.

read this article. it was a smart play for the Pats. it just didn't work.

http://smartfootball.com/game-management/belichicks-decision-to-go-for-it-on-4th-and-2-from-his-teams-own-29

That Pats had Manning all night? Didn't he throw for four touchdowns? I would hate to see what might have happened had that not figured out Manning.

Quote: Originally Posted By jaisonline on 11/16/2009
read this article. it was a smart play for the Pats. it just didn't work.

http://smartfootball.com/game-management/belichicks-decision-to-go-for-it-on-4th-and-2-from-his-teams-own-29

sorry jais, but he bases his conclusion on pure conjecture. In his humble opinion ("My best estimation is that the odds of converting on fourth and two plus stopping Manning from the thirty are greater than your odds of merely stopping Manning from seventy or so"), that's the case. I've already talked to plenty of very smart football people that disagree.

I've seen the metrics on going for it on 4th down, and a lot of times it's the right play. But in this instance, he doesn't have anything close to resembling enough numbers to back up his opinion.

I'm just not willing to read an opinion on a website called "Smart Football: Strategy and Analysis by Chris", and declare that it was the right move. I at least need to know Chris' last name before I jump on his bandwagon!

Quote: Originally Posted By dacj501 on 11/16/2009If you listen to Brady's comments post-game, I don't think you'd say he influenced Belichek's decision...

Going to be fun going into the locker room tomorrow and telling your defense why you didn't trust them enough to win the game..

i loved the brady press conference footage-- he was constantly looking off to his right, as if he were worried that Belichik was watching and monitoring his every word. Probably feared a horse's head in the bed... high comedy.

Football is a field position game. You punt the ball away and let your defense do their job. It's not that hard. It affected the momentum of the game as much as a turnover would with the added effect of crushing your defense's confidence. Dumb call.

Quote: Originally Posted By srunstro on 11/16/2009I thought it was a bad call when I watched it too, but the more I think about it, the more I think it was the right call, and more than that, just a pure Belichick move.

He gets the first down, the pats win. He needs two yards. He has one of the best offenses in the history of the game. He tells Brady to go win the game.

The thing that has always made Belichick great is he plays to win. He doesn't play to not lose. He gambles a lot and wins a lot more than he loses.

The thing I thought was really uncharacteristic was that they burned all their timeouts and couldn't challenge the play. They are usually much better at clock management.

Also, I'm shocked he didn't just let the colts score from the 10 with a minute+ . They don't tackle the guy on the 1 yard line, they get the ball back with 65 seconds down one point. That would have been pure Belichick.

One of the big tactics I use in NCAA and Madden if needed! And a lot of the time it is the right (and only) call to try and win the game. Now this situation is a little different in the fact that the Colts had to score a TD to win, a FG would not have won it, so I don't know that it was the right call to let them score this time, had a fg won it for the colts then, yes letting them score would have been the right call for sure.

Lost in all of this is that Belichek/Brady wasted two timeouts late in this game. They called a timeout to START the series in question. If he has a TO , he challenges the ruling and has a good shot of winning that challenge. Like they said on the broadcast, the play started before 2:00 warning so it is coaches challenge situation and not booth review.

They save a timeout and they can challenge. Having no timeouts is just one more reason why you HAVE to punt the football.