Tier One - clear favorites to win the title (in order): Texas, Kansas, Kentucky
Tier Two - decent chance to make the Elite Eight, with a remote chance to win the tourney if they improve in a key area and/or get hot in late March (not in order ... but by conference): Duke (ACC); Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia (Big East); Purdue, Sparty (Big Ten); Kansas St. (Big 12).
Tier Three - no chance to win the tourney, but could make the Final Four if they make a big impovement in one (or more) areas that can be remedied between now and March (not in order): North Carolina (ACC); Georgetown, Louisville, Pitt (Big East); Ohio State (Big Ten); Missouri (Big 12); Ole Miss, Miss State, Vandy (SEC); Cal (Pac10) ... BYU (MWC), Dayton (A10), Butler (Hor), Gonzaga (WCC).