Trying to figure out why Samuel Bellamy ended up taking so many three pointers in my most recently completed season.

I kept these players set to '0' for 3 point frequency all season long.  They are ranked in order of frequency that a shot attempted was a three pointer.  (The last column, %FG3A.)

Name	Yr.	Pos.	A	SPD	REB	DE	BLK	LP	PE	BH	P	WE	ST	DU	FT	TOT	MIN	FGA	FG3A	%FG3A
Samuel Bellamy	Jr.	SG	44	49	10	70	7	20	58	65	89	31	88	83	C-	614	738	188	90	47.9%
Joseph Washington	Sr.	PG	32	78	12	67	15	12	47	69	83	49	94	59	C	617	840	338	139	41.1%
Arnold Johnson	Jr.	SF	54	69	50	19	16	35	49	39	44	19	72	46	B-	512	658	180	69	38.3%
Ralph Bryant	So.	PG	36	84	1	24	2	29	54	69	62	28	85	32	B+	506	561	129	49	38.0%
Eddie Shoemaker	Jr.	PG	70	90	1	69	8	19	48	71	54	55	92	48	B+	625	843	189	62	32.8%
David Pangle	Fr.	SG	26	58	2	28	4	41	44	52	15	40	76	46	B	432	274	38	12	31.6%

A few months back, I started a bit of a contentious thread, www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=414461.  In that thread a few coaches, made the point that a player is only going to shoot.  I'm summarizing that thread -- and perhaps incorrectly -- but I walked away thinking that unless you are forcing the distribution such as setting things to +2, a player is more likely to take a three based on how likely that shot is to go in.  To crib from daalter in that thread (who was probably the most forceful proponent of this position), "all else being equal, a guy with 90 per will attempt more 3's than a guy with a 9 pe".

Daalter is normally correct, but like I said the thread was a bit contentious and I left it not 100% he was correct.  But I figured he was.  I was a tiny bit more skeptical as well since that thread was created very shortly after the new engine was created so I wasn't sure how much Daalter (and the others on his side) were knowingly speaking about the new engine.  But again, I believe that Daalter worked on the test site more than anybody else did with seble prior to the engine's release so I again assumed he probably knew what he was talking about.  But I just wasn't as sure as I'd normally be.

Anyway, that's a long way of saying I'm not figuring out Samuel Bellamy at all.

Maybe this is simply a function of small sample size.  It's a full season, but it's still not a great sample to go by.

I'm sort of afraid that the reason why he took the most three pointers per shot attempted is because he has the best perimeter rating on the team.  And he does have that.  But just barely.  There is just 14 points in perimeter rating that separate all six players and if you ignore my 4th on the depth chart guard, there is just 11 points.

But if you look at the other ratings, Bellamy is a weaker player than the rest.  He doesn't have the athleticism and speed of any of the other players (except the freshman who didn't really play) and his ball handling is middle of the road.

Based on what I thought I learned in that original thread, Bellamy would take the least amount of threes since everything other than the perimeter rating probably suggested the others were better.  Instead, he took the most.

I'm really struggling to figure out how Bellamy took a three 47.9% of the time compared to Shoemaker's 32.8%.  Shoemaker does have a 10 point gap in perimeter shooting, 58 to 48.  But Shoemaker has 26 points more of athleticism, 41 points of speed, and 6 points of ball handling.  I'd think Shoemaker should be far more likely to attempt a three.  But it would appear I'd be dead wrong.

And I suspect this is a bit trivial but it might even be worth noting that Bellamy has the best passing rating on the team.  When he's on the court, he should be doing a better job setting up teammates for shots than they are for him.

Last thing I should probably note is the depth chart.  I'm not sure that's much help here since I used Bellamy at all three positions from PG - SF.  But here's my chart, the PF is a player not noted above that I had set to -2 for three's all season.  I mixed and matched him and Bellamy per matchups but more often than not I had Bellamy at #2 instead of #3 for SF.

PG	SG	SF
Washington	Shoemaker	Johnson
Bellamy	Bellamy	Bellamy/PF
Bryant	Bryant	PF/Bellamy
Pangle	Pangle	[none]

I'd appreciate any insight because this isn't making a whole lot of sense to me.  Maybe what I thought I learned in that other thread wasn't correct at all.

I think that you have to take into account the LP rating and compare to PE.  It's either the difference between the two or the LP/PE ratio that impacts shot distribution.  Check out this trey jacking center:  http://whatifsports.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=1652507

Judging from his 37 PE & 7 LP, you'd think he shouldn't be shooting at all, but check out his game log and notice all the 3s (at least until I changed the distribution to -2).

Looking at your players, I think the same (diff tween LP & PE) generally holds true, although I can't explain shoemaker.  Just my two cents.

i believe dave is right.  the lower LP =  more 3's. If two guys have the same PER, but one has high LP, the player with high LP will shoot far less 3's in general.

However I also think that a lower ATH also tends to lead to more 3's as well. 

IE a pure speed/PER guy will take a ridiculous amount of 3's relative to a guard with higher ATH and LP.

is this sort of like the balance between good and bad cholesterol?

Yikes.  Looks like you guys are onto it.

This Sim AI team in my conference really demonstrates the point:  www.whatifsports.com/hd/TeamProfile/Stats.aspx?tid=7825

Three guards with perimeter ratings of 65, 66, and 67.  But the guard with 52 in low post takes way less threes than the guys with ratings of 1 and 12.

Does this make sense?  I suppose it does to a certain extent.  For this Sim AI team, you'd want the 52 low post guy to take advantage of that skill.  But on a team like mine, I'm not sure I'm gaining anything at all by having guys with low post ratings in the twenties taking advantage of their low post "game".  It seems like it shouldn't really matter if the low post rating is 1 or 10 or 20 -- those are all terrible.  But it does seem to impact the frequency of three point shooting.

It does have me going back to the drawing board.  I recruited Pangle to be an outside threat with his high growth potential in perimeter shooting but with that low post rating in the 40's it is going to be difficult for me to use him that way it would appear.

not at all-- set him to +1 or +2 and adjust accordingly.

I think the Spd numbers take a bit of a role in matters as well. My Maine-Presque Isle team in Naismith has become a bit of a three-point shooting gallery in recent seasons and the players that I've found to be most three-happy are the ones that 1. have an LP-Per ratio weighted heavily to the Per side and 2. Have middle-of-the-road or lower speeds.

Quinn on my team has a 22-62 LP-PER ratio, but is chucking them up with the same frequency as the 1-74's on my team (and did last year as well). The only variable I've been able to really ascribe the difference in production to is his average to slightly sub-average speed. I had a player graduate last season that was very similar...shot the ball lights-out as a sophomore from three-point territory, but then climbed from a mid-30s speed to a mid/upper 40s over his final two years and never came close to matching his soph season of production behind the arc, even at +2.

Posted by wronoj on 12/2/2010 10:29:00 AM (view original):
not at all-- set him to +1 or +2 and adjust accordingly.

yep - this is very good advice IMO

Samuel Bellamy shot 42% from 3. One of the better percentages on your team. Perhaps he was shooting more 3's because he was making them. lol

one more thing, back to the original post: 

"I'm sort of afraid that the reason why he took the most three pointers per shot attempted is because he has the best perimeter rating on the team.  And he does have that.  But just barely. ...

But if you look at the other ratings, Bellamy is a weaker player than the rest.  He doesn't have the athleticism and speed of any of the other players (except the freshman who didn't really play) and his ball handling is middle of the road.

Based on what I thought I learned in that original thread, Bellamy would take the least amount of threes since everything other than the perimeter rating probably suggested the others were better.  Instead, he took the most."

Isn't this the guy you WANT having a higher 3:2 ratio than the faster, more athletic guys who are slightly better at LP (drives and layups) and slightly worse at PER? Doesn't this make perfect sense? 

one thing, your team is winning by near 20 ppg over the season, bellamy is often in the game with all the subs, at this point, his distro is really high compared to everyone else I would guess, at times that would include a pf at sf, hence he is probably noticably better at shooting 3's than everyone else.

Posted by wronoj on 12/2/2010 10:29:00 AM (view original):
not at all-- set him to +1 or +2 and adjust accordingly.

I typically have preferred to go with 0 so that my players take shots in the flow of the offense.

But I'm thinking that I might be misinterpreting what the +1 and +2 settings do.  I always took them to be forcing more threes and likely doing so at a lesser percentage.  But if the low post rating is going to otherwise shift the balance toward the paint, I'd hope the +/- setting more or less instructs where on the court to shoot and perhaps there isn't a percentage penalty.

Posted by wronoj on 12/2/2010 3:04:00 PM (view original):
one more thing, back to the original post: 

"I'm sort of afraid that the reason why he took the most three pointers per shot attempted is because he has the best perimeter rating on the team.  And he does have that.  But just barely. ...

But if you look at the other ratings, Bellamy is a weaker player than the rest.  He doesn't have the athleticism and speed of any of the other players (except the freshman who didn't really play) and his ball handling is middle of the road.

Based on what I thought I learned in that original thread, Bellamy would take the least amount of threes since everything other than the perimeter rating probably suggested the others were better.  Instead, he took the most."

Isn't this the guy you WANT having a higher 3:2 ratio than the faster, more athletic guys who are slightly better at LP (drives and layups) and slightly worse at PER? Doesn't this make perfect sense? 

Again, perhaps my ignorance here.

What you are saying makes perfect sense, wronoj.  I'm not sure it fits with my understanding of the game.

I've never understood why ball handling is important in making three pointers either but based on forum fact it seems that is pretty important.  And so is athleticism/speed for that matter.

In real life you can have a less athletic shooter that if left open can kill you from behind the line.  Based on how the game uses other ratings in addition to perimeter shooting, I've also assumed that in the sim you are taking a lot more three pointers off the dribble than you'd ever see in real life and that when you are taking a three off a pass, you're dealing with a bunch of Reggie Miller like threes where you are running three picks to get open.  The first scenario could explain why ball handling is good to have and the latter would explain the speed and athleticism.

But I could be dead wrong on that.  

Regardless, I'd argue that none of my low post ratings are worthy of guys bypassing three point shots and trying to drive in the lane.  But you are correct that to do that would require a lot more speed/athleticism than it would be for a spot up shooter.

He also does not have good SPD compared to the others, so he likely can not beat people off the dribble ... so he shoots more jump shots?  That along with his higher PE/LP than the guy who is close to him with PE (Bryant) would seem to take more of his jump shots from 3 if he is set to 0 (go with the flow of the game).

i think low spd high per guys tend to take more 3s than high spd low per guys. not that bellamy is either really, but his spd is definitely relatively worse than his per compared to the rest of your team, so i would expect him to be doing more 3 point shooting than the other guys.