Don't want to mess up #1 overall pick Topic

lvnwrth
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I'm sure this is an old, boring question for most of you guys, but I'm still fairly new at this.  I was bad enough last season to have the #1 overall pick, and I don't want to mess it up.  Here are the best starting pitchers I'm looking at.  I'm open to any comments.  Thanks.

Player T Age Dur Stam Ctrl vL vR Vel GB Ratio Pitch1 Pitch2 Pitch3 Pitch4 Pitch5
George, Artie R 18 23 68 83 81 93 96 86 92 63 54 29 0
Greer, Paul L 19 21 61 91 88 66 91 68 80 60 60 49 0
Clemens, Gene L 20 21 67 93 74 64 87 60 71 73 47 43 0
Tunkel, Vitas R 21 39 99 92 84 100 80 18 73 75 67 71 23
Andujar, Delino L 18 23 96 69 95 80 59 41 80 80 68 51 32
Lord, Zip R 18 33 57 82 66 76 100 36 90 87 57 52 23


George doesn't have great stamina for a starter, but his control, splits, first pitch look really good.
Greer has even worse stamina than George, but really good control, good first pitch.  
Clemens also has marginal stamina, great control, decent splits, decent first and second pitch.  
Tunkel has great stamina, control, splits, four decent pitches, no great pitch.  Does his GB-FB ratio make a big difference?
Lord has the worst stamina of all of them, but he has good control, okay splits, two really good pitches.

I'm leaning towards Tunkel, but still not sure and would apppreciate any comments from you guys who've been around the block a few more times than I have.  There's also a really good-hitting catcher, a couple of SS prospects that might be worth looking at, but I'm really thinking starting pitcher.

 

 

8/28/2011 8:42 PM
moethedog
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Tunkel, and it's not close!  The only thing that would change that is if he had a very low Makeup.  Posting that number would help us.  George is very nice, too.  He has more time to grow than Tunkel, but I'm taking Tunkel unless he has a lousy makeup.  If it is 70+ then he's a Cy Young winner who will throw 240+ innings.  He'll give up s homer or two, but when you have 90+ control and avR of close to 100, then you are a heck of a pitcher.  Not only that but he he throws a ton of pitches every start and he recovers WAY quickly for a starter.  He's really good, really, really good.  If he had a crappy Health that might have some influence here, as well.  Crappy would be less that 60.  Big crappy would be less than 50.
8/28/2011 8:58 PM
lvnwrth
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Tunke's makeup is 60, his health is 65.
8/28/2011 9:23 PM
greeny9
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go for Tunke for sure man, that guys going to be a superstar.  I hope that you have very good college scouting though.  like at least 16 and prefer 18-20.
And if you have awesome coaching they should convince Tunke to drop that loser 5th pitch then you could very well have the best pitcher I have ever seen.
8/28/2011 9:51 PM
cdc80uf
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What are their current ratings, that will show the true story...
8/29/2011 12:24 AM
dedelman
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Posted by cdc80uf on 8/29/2011 12:24:00 AM (view original):
What are their current ratings, that will show the true story...
+1.  Also, add health for all of them.
8/29/2011 7:41 AM
lvnwrth
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Current ratings are a better indicator of what a guy will do than projected ratings?  Here are their current ratings, adding health and makeup.  Is it miy imagination, or do a couple of the 18 year old not look so far out of the running, when you consider that Tunkel has a three year development edge right now?

  T Age Dur Stam Ctrl vL vR Vel GB Ratio P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 Hlth M/U
George, Artie R 18 20 48 50 48 53 79 73 74 56 35 16 0 55 61
Greer, Paul L 19 21 56 66 66 52 72 60 66 59 41 30 0 75 67
Clemens, Gene L 20 17 57 61 53 47 74 53 67 62 34 34 0 69 85
Andujar, Delino L 18 23 70 49 70 55 46 41 72 61 48 40 24 69 78
Lord, Zip R 18 25 46 63 49 57 77 26 75 70 41 34 16 90 58
Tunkel, Vitas R 21 29 79 59 51 72 65 18 71 66 43 49 23 65 60

8/29/2011 8:06 AM (edited)
taz21
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If you plan to keep this team a long time (like 15+ seasons long) patience can play a role.  If you consider two guys equal, a guy w/ high makeup is more likely to sign a long term deal after his first long term deal.  Would help keep your budget in line rather than having to overpay for his services on the free agent market.
8/29/2011 8:40 AM
taz21
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I think I'd still take Tunkel.  You'll end up w/ a guy low 30s durability, low 90s stamina and low 80s control.  vL might be less than perfect (low to mid 70s at best) but the vR should be very strong w/ decent velocity.  2 solid pitches, plus a couple of decent pitches mixed in.  He'll eat up a ton of innings w/ quick recovery.  You'll be able to start him 3 times in a 7 game postseason series no problem.
8/29/2011 8:49 AM
dedelman
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The most important thing here is that none of these guys is worthy of a #1 pick.  Go look at the hitters.

Tunkel, who might still be the best of this lot, would be marginally worth that pick if it weren't for the 65 HE; if he gets through his development phase without an arm surgery he's an SP 1-2 who can throw a ton of innings.  But there's a substantial chance that he'll fail to reach that level given that HE.  George will be a very strong set-up man or 2-inning closer, but not a total stud.  I like Greer a lot, but if your ST projection is correct or even close to correct he's more like George and less like an SP1.  The other guys are solid but not even vaguely close to #1-worthy.

If the hitters are no better, take Tunkel and spend out your *** on your medical and training budgets (you should do this for training just in general, anyway).

8/29/2011 9:33 AM
lvnwrth
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Here are the hitters.  I don't see one of them that clearly jumps off the page at me.  Willliams projects as a solid hitter, but as a defensive catcher he's average or less.  Crane, Maxwell probably project to 2b/3b/cf, not SS.  O'Toole is potential GG shortstop, but he's "considering the NBA". 

Player Pos B Age Con Pwr vL vR Eye BaseR Bunt Pull Rng Glove Astr Aacc Phandle Hlth M/U
Williams, Candy C R 19 68 77 67 45 83 39 15 47 16 22 56 51 41 65 55
Maxwell, Kordell SS R 18 38 62 46 43 47 46 35 22 58 48 68 49 2 63 90
Crane, Alex SS R 19 68 67 50 48 50 38 45 44 71 60 72 51 0 66 72
O'Toole, Robert SS R 21 50 36 51 61 30 53 63 34 82 70 85 65 0 76 43
8/29/2011 9:55 AM (edited)
lvnwrth
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Posted by dedelman on 8/29/2011 9:33:00 AM (view original):

The most important thing here is that none of these guys is worthy of a #1 pick.  Go look at the hitters.

Tunkel, who might still be the best of this lot, would be marginally worth that pick if it weren't for the 65 HE; if he gets through his development phase without an arm surgery he's an SP 1-2 who can throw a ton of innings.  But there's a substantial chance that he'll fail to reach that level given that HE.  George will be a very strong set-up man or 2-inning closer, but not a total stud.  I like Greer a lot, but if your ST projection is correct or even close to correct he's more like George and less like an SP1.  The other guys are solid but not even vaguely close to #1-worthy.

If the hitters are no better, take Tunkel and spend out your *** on your medical and training budgets (you should do this for training just in general, anyway).

I have to disagree.  The most important thing here is to realize that WIS populates the draft pool, not you or me.  I'd love to go back and tell them there's not a Stephen Strasburg or Bryce Harper there, could they please run the "populate" function again.  But I don't think they will, even if I asked really nicely.

So, the most important thing is to figure out who the best guy is and draft him.  It doesn't matter whether or not he's "worthy of a #1 pick" in some abstract, perfect world.  All that matters is whether he's the best player in THIS draft.
 

8/29/2011 10:00 AM
dedelman
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1)  I made an assumption, probably not correct, that you had only looked at the best pitchers, and not all the players.  If there is no position player as good as these 6 pitchers then you are correct these are your options for this season.  If you feel as though you should always take an SP with the #1 pick and didn't look at position players, then I would re-evaluate that position in light of these SPs.

2)  It's not strictly true that you're stuck with this season's pool.  You could draft a guy who probably won't sign, and take the second pick in next season's draft instead.  I don't think Tunkel is so bad for a #1 that I would do that, but I would at least think about it.
8/29/2011 11:25 AM
taz21
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Unlike dedleman, I wouldn't worry about his 65 health and draft Tunkel #1. Sure its a risk, but its not beyond terrible.

Are those the current ratings for the batters, I'm assuming?  Williams and Crane stand out above the other.  GG ss are a nice thing to have, but can be found in round 2 and O'toole has a lot of ground to make up on his arm accuracy to reach that status.  The bat would be solid for a SS, but not worth the #1 pick.  Maxwell is a corner OF down the road, w/ a bat that doesn't impress much.  He may have big power potential, but the splits and eye will top out in the low 70s at best and contact would be sub-par for a corner bat.
8/29/2011 12:22 PM
dedelman
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I like two of the hitters better than Tunkel.  If it were me I'd take Crane, who is a stud SS except that he's going to make about 10 throwing errors a year more than you'd like.  I can live with that.  What's Williams durability?  That's a nice bat, assuming those are current ratings, and the glove probably won't be a total disaster, but stud catchers often have low durability in HBD.  I like him over Tunkel, too, if the DUR is solid.  O'Toole is a very good starting SS; he's not going to survive until round 2, but I like the other guys better.  Maxwell's a slightly above average starting 3B but not really in the discussion.
8/29/2011 12:59 PM
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