New League- 1970 Roll of the Dice Full, waitlist Topic

mountainjack
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This is a new progressive league beginning in 1970 with a relatively unique concept (the basic concept has been used by other leagues but not in this manner.)  Each season the dice will be rolled for every player after the draft to determine which real life season a player will use, possible season's are the current season and  +- 3 seasons.  The most likely season used will be the current one (est. 45% odds) but other seasons still make up the majority of results.  See the table below for exact odds.  Detailed rules are listed below the draft order and the odds table. 

Full for now, if interested in being put on the waitlist let me know.


Draft can begin, draft thread is here:  http://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?TopicID=457553&TopicsTimeframe=30  We are using the temporary forum until WIS can give us a new one, ignore the threads from Chargingrynos old league.

1st Round

1) Brocktoon93-  Nolan Ryan P
2) slashtc (tm 2)- Tom Seaver P
3) Nappyrootz-    Don Sutton P
4) lvdiceguy-       Jim Palmer P
5) Mattedesa-     Bert Blyleven P
6) Harrelson-      Gaylord Perry P
7) Topkat-          Johnny Bench C
8) Chargingryno- Fergie Jenkins P
9) Cardsfan(tm 2)- Bob Gibson P
10) spoonfed-      Steve Carlton P
11) N4ser-           Catfish Hunter P
12) ebowco-        Carl Yastrzremski 1B/OF 
13) cccp1014-     Vida Blue P
14) Nappyrootz(from mountainjack)- Phil Niekro P
15) mountainjack(from Nappyrootz & pfattkatt) Joe Morgan 2B
16) ronblood        Willie Stargell OF/1B
17) italyprof-        Reggie Jackson OF
18) moser34        Rod Carew 2B/1B
19) erne6              Pete Rose OF
20) alebenta         Mike Cuellar P        
21) Cardsfan(tm1) Joe Torre C
22) slashtc(tm1)    Tommy John P
23) ddprime           Andy Messersmith P
24) jrynyfan01       Jerry Koosman P

Draft Order- Odd Rounds All Times EST

1)   Brocktoon93-  9:00 AM 
2)   slashtc(2)-       9:30 AM
3)   Nappyrootz-   10:00 AM
4)   lvdiceguy-      10:30 AM
5)   Mattedesa-     11:00 AM
6)   Harrelson-      11:30 AM
7)   Topkat-          12:00 PM
8)   Chargingryno- 12:30 PM
9)   Cardsfan(2)-   1:00 PM
10) spoonfed-       1:30 PM
11) N4ser-             2:00 PM
12) ebowco-          2:30 PM
13) cccp1014-       3:00 PM
14) mountainjack- 3:30 PM
15) pfattkatt-         4:00 PM
16) ronblood-        4:30 PM
17) italyprof-          5:00 PM
18) moser34-         5:30 PM
19) erne6-              6:00 PM
20) alebenta-         6:30 PM
21) Cardsfan(1)-    7:00 PM
22) slashtc(1)-       7:30 PM
23) ddprime-          8:00 PM
24) jrynyfan0-        8:30 PM

Draft Order- Even Rounds

1) jrynyfan01-      9:00 AM
2) ddprime-          9:30 AM
3) slashtc(1)-     10:00 AM
4) Cardsfan(1)   10:30 AM
5) alebenta-       11:00 AM
6) erne6             11:30 AM
7) moser34        12:00 PM
8) italyprof         12:30 PM
9) ronblood          1:00 PM
10) pfattkatt         1:30 PM
11) mountainjack 2:00 PM
12) cccp1014       2:30 PM
13) ebowco          3:00 PM
14) N4ser             3:30 PM
15) spoonfed        4:00 PM
16) cardsfan         4:30 PM
17) chargingyrno  5:00 PM
18) topkat             5:30 PM
19) harrelson        6:00 PM
20) mattedesa      6:30 PM
21) lvdiceguy        7:00 PM
22) Nappyrootz     7:30 PM
23) slashtc            8:00 PM
24) Brocktoon93   8:30 PM


Rules:

so roll the dice (like real dice, 1 to 6 on each die, like a craps game) ... and you get one of his seasons

2 current season -3 (odds 2.8%)
3 current season -2 (odds 5.6%)
4 current season -1 (odds 8.3%)
5 current season -1 (odds 11.1%)
6 current season (odds 13.9%)
7 current season (odds 16.7%)
8 current season (odds 13.9%)
9 current season +1 (odds 11.1%)
10 current season +1 (odds 8.3%)
11 current season +2 (odds 5.6%)
12 current season +3 (odds 2.8%)

If the result of the roll is not possible such as a rookie getting a roll of -1, -2, or -3, a re-roll occurs until a valid season is the outcome.

As GMs we still have the advantage of KNOWING his seasons, but rolling each player adds uncertainty to the building of obvious championships.

New- After the 20th round each owner can choose one player to be rolled to help determine usage problems.  Owners should state which player they want to be rolled in the same post as their 20th round pick.  If they do not do so their 1st round pick will be rolled, we won't delay the draft for anyone to declare another player.   All other players will be "rolled" using random.org after the draft.   If you want I'll do as much as possible LIVE, in sim live so you can "see" your players at once.

Based on early interest we'll start this one in 1970 (one of my favorite periods) and progress from there.

More Details:

24 teams standard- For at least season 1 slashtc and cardsfan will own 2 teams
Initial draft will be serpentine
Subsequent draft's order method tbd, probably not just straight W-L though
Draft ballpark during initial draft in any round, may be from any era.
AL/NL determined by ballpark choice
Only full season stats will be used
Keepers/cuts- This is open for debate. Will be voted on after league fills-22, 19, or 16. Cuts would be before the die rolls.
Injured Reserve- If a player's current season is an IR season the player will be on IR and the owner will be given an extra draft choice.  In all drafts you can only draft a player who was rated for the current season, you can't draft a player ineligible for the current season and stash them on IR.
As long as a player is rated for the current season he will have to roll an active season. If the first roll(s) result in IR or pre-rookie or retirement years the dice will be rolled again until an active season is rolled. Takes some unpredicteablity out but it does ensure that every team will have 25 players with at least some stats.
Sample Timeline:  End of season, cuts/IR's announced, draft, dice rolls.
No waivers
DH in AL from 73 onward
No interleague until MLB interleague play started
6/6 AAA- changed from 6/4, may be revised for future seasons (especially after MLB expands in mid-70's)
Trade draft picks only one year in advance (71 picks during 70 draft, etc)
Votes to veto trade: 6
Owners who own two teams may not trade with their own teams and must have one AL and one NL team. Any sportsmanship violations can result in double owners losing one or both teams.
$50 prizes from admin if we maintain 12/24 owners over 5 seasons.
 

Draft Stuff to remember:

-Order is serpentine, i.e. order is reversed every round.  1st round time no time slots but if an owner takes longer than 24-36 hours I will consider replacing that owner.  Edit: Because the 1st rd has been so slow effective Monday 7/23, I am changing the 1st rd deadline to 6 hours, beginning 6 am est and ending midnight.   Ror rounds 5-26 1/2 hour time slots will be used, running from 9 am- 8 pm EST. 
-Only players who were rated by WIS in 1970 will be eligible for this draft. 
-Injured Reserve: For all subsequent drafts if a player is on IR for the current season that player's owner will draft an extra player so that all teams will have 25 active players
-The random dice rolls will be done after the draft.  One player per team will be rolled after the 20th round.  As long as a player is rated for the current season (1970 for the initial draft) he cannot roll an inactive (IR, pre-rookie, retired) for that season.  Dice will be re-rolled until an active season is rolled.
-Ballparks can be selected in any round, park selection determines AL/NL. 
-I'll post the rules here later tonight or tomorrow, they are still on the progressive board if needed.
-When you take your 1st rd pick please vote on how many keepers we will have every year: 22, 19, or 16.



7/25/2012 11:47 PM (edited)
italyprof
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Okay, I am a little confused about whether the league is full with a waiting list as is stated in the title of the other thread, or is in need of three more owners - since this thread was started at the end of that one, I am guessing the latter. 

I am in, although I am a little concerned about the seeming chaos with regard to commissioner-draft issues, but hopefully this is just about a holiday weekend and real life intruding on more important things like baseball. 

So, yes, sign me up - I was at first reluctant because of the uncertainty involved in the idea, but now that I have participated in several drafts, this seems like it could be fun and also very frustrating if you get lousy seasons when you hope for good ones - like real baseball as you point out. Plus 1970 was a prime time for my baseball-forming years (hit .273 in little league that year). 
7/5/2012 7:45 AM
mountainjack
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Great, you are in italyprof.  Most of the problem was that the league would almost fill, then someone would drop out.  Harrelson was on the road this week and got a bit discouraged because of the dropouts but he is back and I am committed to getting this going, I really like the idea.  If recruiting is slow we may have to consider starting out with 16 teams and then expanding in a season or two.  I much prefer 24, as do some of the other owners.  Hopefully once the holliday week is over we can fill up. 
7/5/2012 4:32 PM
italyprof
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If I remember correctly there were 24 team in MLB in 1970, which means that 24 teams in this league will likely lead to difficulties in getting enough PA and IP for everyone. Wouldn't starting with 20 be a better idea, or even 16 and then expanding when MLB next expanded ? 

I am in either way, but people may be thinking about playoff spots - not as relevant an issue in progressives where the goal is only nominally to win the pennant every season, since everyone goes through bad patches of seasons and rebuilding phases - instead of the often crucial question in progressives of making sure there are enough available players. 

Otherwise, as in many leagues that begin with 16 teams in seasons when MLB also had only that many, your suggested maximum keeper roster of 22 may not need to be enforced. We could be lucky  if we have 22 players for each team.  If the DH will also go into effect in 1973 in the AL, that will put yet more pressure on available PAs and available players. 

I at least, and being a late arrival here, would not want to exclude anyone that is already in (including myself !) but if we are only at 16 I would say, fine, we can decide to expand even in 1971 if we really want to, or else if we are just under 20 guaranteed owners in, let's get to that number so drafting from 24 MLB team rosters we all know we will have adequate players. 



7/5/2012 8:06 PM (edited)
mountainjack
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Good points, several owners have expressed a preference for 24 but circumstances may make 16 a better choice for now.  Let's see how it looks on Saturday, right now we just have 12 definite owners, I'm not going to wait more than a few days to fill so it may turn out to be 16.
7/5/2012 7:30 PM
chargingryno
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if we have below average AAA 24 teams works great in 1970 -  

the league I run started in 1969 with 24 teams and never has PA/IP problems - I wouldn't stay for a 16 team league as that becomes a hall of fame league - I'd stay for 20, but would greatly prefer 24.  
7/6/2012 12:50 AM
mountainjack
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jrnyfan01 is confirmed in, thanks jrny.  That's 13 confirmed owners, 9 maybes, and 2 openings.

Re: league size, I hear you chargingryno, several owners (myself included) want 24, so that will be the goal.  However, if we can't get there within a reasonable time we may have to go to 20 or 16.  16 will probably cause more dropouts so that will only happen if we can't get to at least 20.  I just don't want to wait longer than another week or so because then people start losing interest and we end up doing this all over again or never getting started.   

AAA will probably be 6/4 below average, if after drafting it looks like we need more than 6/4 we can add some.  The 22 keepers is just my suggestion, can certainly be debated and changed/eliminated.  There are a lot of other owners here with more experience than me, what has worked in other leagues will be a good guide to use.
7/6/2012 4:05 PM
pfattkatt
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A question: I draft player "A" in his 1970 season. The dice roll gives me his 1968 season. Next season, do I play his '69 season, or do we roll the dice again for our 1971 season? And so on for every player, every season? I am leaning toward joining, but only a 24 team league. The best things in life are worth waiting for. I just want to be certain what I am getting into. Thanks.
7/6/2012 4:30 PM
chargingryno
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I believe he would progress to 1971 and the dice would again be rolled. So in season 5, every player would roll the dice from 1974 season.
7/6/2012 4:52 PM
mountainjack
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Posted by pfattkatt on 7/6/2012 4:30:00 PM (view original):
A question: I draft player "A" in his 1970 season. The dice roll gives me his 1968 season. Next season, do I play his '69 season, or do we roll the dice again for our 1971 season? And so on for every player, every season? I am leaning toward joining, but only a 24 team league. The best things in life are worth waiting for. I just want to be certain what I am getting into. Thanks.
pfattkatt- it's random every season, so there would be a new roll every season for every player.  Chargingryno's example is correct.  The goal is 24 teams, only reason we would go less would be if we just can't fill in a reasonable time.  If you commit we would have 14 in, plus 9 owners who signed up but have not contacted me the last couple of days to confirm.  I think we can get to 24 fairly quick, hopefully some of the 9 are just busy with the holiday and will confirm they are in soon. 

7/6/2012 4:57 PM (edited)
italyprof
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So the only sense in which the player in chargingryno and pfattkatt's example "progresses" is that he gets closer to retirement ? 

In other words, there is a player that plays from 1970 when we start to 1980 when he retires. We roll the dice for each of those 11 seasons and any of his 11 seasons could be that year, but theoretically, and for our league, that player is moving from 1970 to 1980 even if every single one of those 11 dice rolls results in his 1974 season let's say. Is that correct ?
7/6/2012 7:28 PM
mountainjack
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A player can only get a result of plus or minus 3 seasons from his current season.  So for the 1970 season players' possible seasons will be 67-73.  The odds are weighted toward the current season, a player has a 48% chance of rolling his current season, and only a 2.8% chance of rolling either 3 years ahead or back.  The player's current season does advance every year, so during our 2nd season players will use 1971 as their current season to determine what year is used.   Capisce?  If not let me know.

 2 current season -3 (odds 2.8%)
3 current season -2 (odds 5.6%)
4 current season -1 (odds 8.3%)
5 current season -1 (odds 11.1%)
6 current season (odds 13.9%)
7 current season (odds 16.7%)
8 current season (odds 13.9%)
9 current season +1 (odds 11.1%)
10 current season +1 (odds 8.3%)
11 current season +2 (odds 5.6%)
12 current season +3 (odds 2.8%)

edit: Prior rolls do not affect a player's chances for following seasons.  In other words, if Bob Gibson rolls a 12 in 1970, he would use 1973 stats.  Before season 2 he rolls a 7, so he would use 1971 (current season).

7/8/2012 10:03 PM (edited)
N4ser
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Count me in. Sounds interesting
7/6/2012 9:00 PM
mountainjack
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Thanks N4ser, you are in
7/6/2012 10:04 PM
pfattkatt
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OK. I am in, as far as keepers, I think I'd like to see the amount of keepers lower, so that teams that need to would have a better chance to rebuild. I won't stay with less than 24 teams. Having to manage is what makes the league attractive. How many vetoes needed to void a trade? i would like to see 6 as the number
7/6/2012 11:39 PM (edited)
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