I've kept records for some of my teams over the years, and I did a quick count.
It looks like around 57% of the time, the Sim AI in the CT outperforms its regular season results (point spreads). This is for 4 of my teams.
I've had 35 games vs Sims in my CT's, and 20 times the Sim did better in the tourney.
Crum Albertus Magnus (seasons 63 thru 68), Sim outperformed 6 out of 11.
Crum Merrimack (seasons 69 thru 74), Sim outperformed 3 out of 5.
Crum Holy Cross (seasons 75 thru 81), Sim outperformed 5 out of 8 (though I lost records for Crum Season 79).
Wooden Conn College (seasons 77 thru 81), Sim outperformed 6 out of 11.
So that's 20 out of 35 times, but pretty consistent across the board.
I have to find my current Naismith team for more numbers.
UPDATE:
Naismith Albertus Magnus (seasons 83 thru 87), Sim outperformed 4 out of 10 times, so only 40%, though 2 times they outperformed by only 1 point.
So, grand total, 24 out of 45 times, or 53.3% of the time, across 45 games.
So not that outrageous, but the Sim has outperformed vs 4 of my 5 teams, and I've had some really good teams through these seasons.
The biggest seasons that ****** me off were:
Wooden Conn College:
Season 81 (14-2): Reg Season beat Westfield State (6-10) by 15, then I lost by 5 in the CT.
Season 78 (16-0): Reg Season beat Amherst (10-6) by 5, then I lost by 6 in the CT.
Naismith Albertus Magnus:
Season 83 (15-1): Reg Season beat Newbury (11-5) by 12, then I lost by 4 in the CT.
Crum Albertus Magnus (13-3):
Season 63 (13-3): Reg Season beat Rivier (14-2) by 16, then I lost by 7 in the CT.
Season 66 (14-2): Reg Season beat Emmanuel (6-10) by 9, then I lost by 4 in the CT.
Crum Holy Cross:
Season 77 (13-3): Reg Season beat Lehigh (12-4) by 17, then I lost by 14 in the CT.
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4/28/2016 12:21 PM (edited)