How Does Pitcher Strikeout Rate Affect Range Topic

am I reading it right that Bancroft has 18 for one team and 1 for a different team?

That's hilarious
1/21/2020 9:47 AM
Posted by contrarian23 on 1/21/2020 8:37:00 AM (view original):
Not also that there was no restriction on which OF spot the 3 OF had to play, so each is being used differently by individual owners.
Can you share the numbers by outfield position?

Ideally it would be by outfielder and by outfield position but that might be too much work / too small of a sample to get signal from.
1/22/2020 3:00 AM (edited)
Posted by contrarian23 on 1/21/2020 8:36:00 AM (view original):
Low K teams have an overall edge of about 6 plus plays per team. But much of that is due to pitchers. When looking just at the core 7, the edge reduces to about 3.5 plays.

And all of that advantage, and then some, is due to the outfielders. The high K teams actually have slightly more plus plays from the infielders (26.1 compared to 25.6). But the low K teams have 15.6 plus plays from the outfielders, compared to 11.7 for the high K teams.

It is possible that the higher numbers for low K teams is from outfielders cutting off base hits and holding batters to fewer bases (turning triples into doubles and doubles into singles.) Without checking individual boxscores I have no idea if that is true.
One interesting idea that emerged from this is whether high K pitchers are a way to reduce balls in play specifically to the outfield. Therefore, it follows that if you’re up against a good XBH team, it may be worth paying for the extra strikeouts even in cases where your opponent doesn’t strike out much.

This theory doesn’t make a ton of sense to me and it could also have something to do with HR/9, but it will be interesting to keep thinking about for the rest of the season.

It would be great to see something like number of + plays relative to number of putouts, assists, etc by player/position as well
1/22/2020 1:53 PM (edited)
Posted by 06gsp on 1/21/2020 9:47:00 AM (view original):
am I reading it right that Bancroft has 18 for one team and 1 for a different team?

That's hilarious
I use Bancroft a lot and he really likes playing for me, and it shows! :-)
1/22/2020 6:05 PM
Sorry, one other comment -- we should really be using the median rather than the mean to determine the average result here, since the maximum is unbounded.

This would show that the HIGH K teams are averaging 35 rather than 37.875 for the main seven players, and the LOW K teams are averaging 42 rather than 41.25. This delta of 7 tells a much different story (about double!) of what the mean shows.
1/22/2020 6:27 PM
Posted by ozomatli on 1/22/2020 6:27:00 PM (view original):
Sorry, one other comment -- we should really be using the median rather than the mean to determine the average result here, since the maximum is unbounded.

This would show that the HIGH K teams are averaging 35 rather than 37.875 for the main seven players, and the LOW K teams are averaging 42 rather than 41.25. This delta of 7 tells a much different story (about double!) of what the mean shows.
Ozo, I love it when you post like this. I'mean it shoots clear o'er my head. An' I know your speakin' American an all, but I dont un'erstand a word of it.

Ya sure your not related to Contrarian? He's been doing thaat to me for years.
1/23/2020 11:38 PM
Are you tracking total chances by position? I'm wondering if a SS regularly gets more chances than a 2B..I have teams where that isn't the case...
1/29/2020 5:51 PM
Team Type Paskert 1B McPhee Joyce Bancroft Total IF PA vRH PA vLH % vRH
Range Rovers Special K HighK 10 15 19 24 68 1858 1393 57%
K-Game is Strong HighK 12 15 9 23 59 2183 1095 67%
Stee-rike Three HighK 4 20 13 16 53 1797 1290 58%
High K Low Expections HighK 10 14 14 10 48 1843 1262 59%
K-9 Patrol HighK 9 15 10 12 46 1713 1429 55%
Max Range HighK 8 10 10 15 43 2126 1111 66%
Profanity is Prohibited HighK 9 15 7 11 42 2029 1269 62%
With 8 You Get Eggroll HighK 9 14 10 8 41 2171 1131 66%
Force Feed LowK 14 19 16 16 65 1985 1233 62%
Balls in Play LowK 16 10 14 24 64 1689 1507 53%
Randy Babes on the Range LowK 16 11 10 25 62 1941 1081 64%
MH Going With Yes LowK 9 12 21 17 59 1506 1599 49%
Outta Range LowK 6 16 14 22 58 1830 1413 56%
Pitching to Contact LowK 15 17 14 12 58 1712 1345 56%
Range Rovers Low K LowK 11 10 15 16 52 1858 1320 58%
TWISL Sticks LowK 10 17 10 13 50 1864 1245 60%
2/4/2020 8:48 AM
The above is taken from the extended stats, pitching, vLH and vRH stats through 82 games.

Notice, except for catchers and bench players, everyone is facing the same hitters, but remember there are also 3 switch hitters (Carey, Bancroft, North) that will vary by pitcher handedness
2/4/2020 8:50 AM
Team Type 1B/2B + SS/3B+ PA vRH PA vLH % vRH Left side + per 100 PA vRH Right side + per 100 PA v LH
Range Rovers Special K HighK 25 43 1858 1393 57% 2.31 1.79
K-Game is Strong HighK 27 32 2183 1095 67% 1.47 2.47
Stee-rike Three HighK 24 29 1797 1290 58% 1.61 1.86
High K Low Expections HighK 24 24 1843 1262 59% 1.30 1.90
K-9 Patrol HighK 24 22 1713 1429 55% 1.28 1.68
Max Range HighK 18 25 2126 1111 66% 1.18 1.62
Profanity is Prohibited HighK 24 18 2029 1269 62% 0.89 1.89
With 8 You Get Eggroll HighK 23 18 2171 1131 66% 0.83 2.03
Force Feed LowK 33 32 1985 1233 62% 1.61 2.68
Balls in Play LowK 26 38 1689 1507 53% 2.25 1.73
Randy Babes on the Range LowK 27 35 1941 1081 64% 1.80 2.50
MH Going With Yes LowK 21 38 1506 1599 49% 2.52 1.31
Outta Range LowK 22 36 1830 1413 56% 1.97 1.56
Pitching to Contact LowK 32 26 1712 1345 56% 1.52 2.38
Range Rovers Low K LowK 21 31 1858 1320 58% 1.67 1.59
TWISL Sticks LowK 27 23 1864 1245 60% 1.23 2.17
2/4/2020 8:55 AM (edited)
I thought the data might be a bit less noisy if you normalized for batter handedness but I'm not sure.
2/4/2020 8:53 AM
I've been meaning to post this in here for awhile...uncleal's post that's in the pinned threads...some good info.



Due to recent events, I have come to explain in detail what range actually is and is not.

Disclaimer: I have played a lot of SIM, but I am hardly an expert in the inner workings of the SIM. I would like to start a discussion. If other experienced owners spot a mistake with what I am saying, or would like to add data, please let me know. This is taken from past discussions, the knowledge base, the event tree, and other such things. I did not look at any teams or specific players when writing this.

The first thing to understand about range is that it is two very different topics.

First: How does WIS create its range grade?

A player’s range grade (A+ to D-) is calculated using a players Relative Range Factor. This is a complex process, the exact formula not published by WIS (to my knowledge), that takes a player’s raw Range Factor and is modified to compensate “for actual team makeup and balls in play allowed” (quoted from Knowledge Base). (Players are also penalized for playing fewer than 20 games at the position.) WIS is compensating for the fact that Range Factor is not a great stat because it is heavily affected by those things. This compensation is likely imperfect, so the original Range Factor is very important. What is this Range Factor?

Range Factor = (Putouts + Assists) / Games Played at the Position (Updated)

Notice that this doesn’t say a whole lot about a player’s actual range, for three reasons:

1. Errors affect range too, because a player could still have gotten to a ball, but failed to play it.

2. (Far more important) You can’t catch a ball not hit near you, no matter how good you are. Most especially, if you’re not the catcher, you can’t catch a strikeout. (Conversely, if you are the catcher, you are credited with the putout on most K’s, and the assist on those you have to throw down on because you dropped the third strike.)

3. (Updated) Players that get pinch-hit for or that come in as late-inning substitutions (or get substituted for) are all penalized because they are on the field for fewer outs than a regulation game. Losing before or during the bottom of the 9th also hurts range factors, just as playing extra innings helps. This is because WIS uses the weaker game-based range factor here rather than the more accurate 9-inning range factor.

I believe that WIS attempts to compensate for K rates and errors in their RRF calculation. More subtle issues such as where balls are actually hit is unlikely to be included, and on aggregate is frankly likely to be close enough to give us a useable number since it’s treated the same for all players. I think Range Factor is actually not a great counter for range, and even with compensation I think the effects of strikeouts and spray are far more important drivers of this statistic. There are likely better ways to calculate range, but I doubt many of them are feasible in a SIM that uses players from before there was reliable video. So this is what we have.

In short, a player’s range factor in the SIM may have little to do with their range capabilities in real life. But it is what we are using.

Now that we understand how range is calculated, and we have a number, we are about to use that number to determine how well this player plays in the SIM. Other than the number/grade, I want you to forget everything you just read. It has nothing to do with what we’re going to talk about.

Second: The Event Tree, + Plays, and – Plays

Scenario: (No runners on base) A ball is hit to the shortstop, and the play is presumed to be a ground out (calculated as such at the hitter’s step in the event tree). Now what happens? There are two possibilities.

1) The shortstop has sufficient range to make a play on the ball. He gets to the ball. (At this point, he either makes an error or an out, but we are not concerned with this. The range is no longer relevant.)

2) The shortstop does not have sufficient range and the ball gets through. The batter is credited with a single (most likely) and the shortstop is charged with a “-“ play. The worse the shortstop’s range is, the more likely this is to occur. It’s never a “common” event, as even the worst shortstops (that are actual shortstops) probably only do this once every 5 or so games. But it does happen.

The “-“ play is the negative result generated by bad range. This is the only way for a player to be penalized for bad range (though, to be clear, this can happen on any type of play on which he is involved, not just ground balls.)

Scenario: (No runners on base) A fly ball is hit in the vicinity of the center fielder, but is presumed to drop in front of him and the batter should get a single (calculated as such in the hitter’s step in the event tree.) Now what happens? There are two possibilities with range, and three possible results.

1) The center fielder sees the ball drop for a single. (He may still boot the ball and allow the runner to advance extra bases, but this again, is fielding, not range.)

2a) The center fielder, with his superior range, allows him to grab the ball before it hits the ground. He makes the catch and the batter is out. The center fielder is credited with a “+” play.

2b) The center fielder, with his superior range, allows him to grab the ball before it hits the ground. Unfortunately, due to poor fielding (NOT RANGE) he boots the ball. I do not recall the “official scorer” result in such a circumstances (as to hit vs. error) but the center fielder will be given a “+-“ play. (Note that this result happens with GOOD RANGE.)

The scenario described above is one of two ways to get credited with a “+” play. A player can also get a “+” play by using similar range skills to turn doubles into singles, etc.

All that stuff from the first discussion has nothing to do with what range is in the SIM.

Third: Okay, how is the SIM range factor calculated?

Not a bad question. I'd thought I'd answered this, but it's not quite the same. This time, Range Factor = (Putouts + Assists) * 9 / Innings Played at the Position. The stat is now the more accurate inning-based version rather than the game-based version.

What are the most important factors to determine your players’ range factors? Your k-rates, the ranges of your teammates, and the L/R handedness of your opposing batters.

K-rates: If you strike out more batters, that’s less balls in play for your players to make plays on. Range factors go down (except your catchers’, which go up).

Teammates’ Ranges: If a SS makes a “+” play, that’s an out. That means one play opportunity potentially taken away from the 3B, 2B, and everyone else. Also, a “-“ play keeps more outs on the table – which could just as easily become a strikeout as an out to a different IF/OF. A play opportunity is far from one play per game, but this is going to add up over the course of a season.

L/R handedness of opponents: The SIM assumes all hitters are pull hitters. An all-RH lineup will give your LF more chances than your RF, in aggregate, and vice-versa for an all-LH lineup. Similar patterns apply to the infield, though note that 1B range factors will always look the highest because they get the putout on the vast majority of ground balls hit anywhere.

So what does this mean? In short, you shouldn’t give a second’s thought to your players’ SIM range factors. They mean almost nothing for performance. You really shouldn’t worry about them in real life either, except that’s how the SIM calculates range. If only we had +/- play data... but of course, in real life that’s subjective, and the SIM can only do it with accuracy because it knows how the result happened through its own code.

If you want to see how your player is doing with respect to their range, check their “+” and “-“ play rates. Make sure to compare them to other players, not just see the numbers in isolation, and always consider small sample size and team strikeout rates especially.


12/21/2015 6:52 PM (edited)
2/4/2020 2:05 PM
This is fascinating. Great analysis, contrarian
2/8/2020 1:21 PM
As someone who has never read through how the decision tree works, this makes me realize I probably should
2/8/2020 1:51 PM
And here's the outfielders, not including Paskert, who has made 3 plus plays in limited playing time in the OF.
Team North LF North CF North RF North Total Carey LF Carey CF Carey RF Carey Total Douthit LF Douthit CF Douthit RF Douthit Total
High K Low Expections 12 0 0 12 0 15 0 15 0 0 10 10
K-9 Patrol 0 26 0 26 12 0 0 12 0 0 12 12
K-Game is Strong 15 0 0 15 0 13 0 13 0 0 9 9
Max Range 0 14 0 14 12 0 0 12 0 0 9 9
Profanity is Prohibited 14 0 0 14 0 14 0 14 0 0 9 9
Range Rovers Special K 0 0 18 18 5 14 0 19 12 4 0 16
Stee-rike Three 0 29 0 29 12 0 0 12 0 0 10 10
With 8 You Get Eggroll 21 0 0 21 0 24 0 24 0 0 5 5
Balls in Play 0 26 0 26 17 0 0 17 0 0 16 16
Force Feed 15 0 0 15 0 19 0 19 0 0 9 9
MH Going With Yes 0 21 0 21 0 0 14 14 13 0 0 13
Outta Range 0 18 0 18 14 0 0 14 0 0 11 11
Pitching to Contact 0 17 0 17 14 0 0 14 0 0 13 13
Randy Babes on the Range 0 24 0 24 9 0 0 9 0 0 18 18
Range Rovers Low K 0 0 15 15 9 0 0 9 0 13 0 13
TWISL Sticks 0 23 0 23 6 0 7 13 7 0 14 21
Overall AVG 4.8 12.4 2.1 19.3 6.9 6.2 1.3 14.4 2.0 1.1 9.1 12.1
Overall MAX 21.0 29.0 18.0 29.0 17.0 24.0 14.0 24.0 13.0 13.0 18.0 21.0
Overall MIN 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0
High AVG 7.8 8.6 2.3 18.6 5.1 10.0 0.0 15.1 1.5 0.5 8.0 10.0
High MAX 21.0 29.0 18.0 29.0 12.0 24.0 0.0 24.0 12.0 4.0 12.0 16.0
High MIN 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0
Low AVG 1.9 16.1 1.9 19.9 8.6 2.4 2.6 13.6 2.5 1.6 10.1 14.3
Low MAX 15.0 26.0 15.0 26.0 17.0 19.0 14.0 19.0 13.0 13.0 18.0 21.0
Low MIN 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.0
2/16/2020 8:11 PM
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