Team A:

D2 C Prestige

1095 AP

20 HV

1 CV

25 minutes + Start

Wants to play - Very Good

Far from home - Bad

Wants success - Good

Strong Defense - Bad

Fast Break - Very Good

Fullcourt Press - Good

Long time coach - Very Bad

Team B:

D2 A+ Prestige

301 AP

13 HV

1 CV

15 minutes + start

Wants to play - Very Good

Far from home - Very Bad

Wants success - Very Good

Strong Defense - Good

Fast Break - Neutral

Fullcourt Press - Very Good

Long time coach - Very Good

60/40 Team A

was the wants to play put on before all the other effort (the minutes?). i'm going to assume yes, but that is a significantly important assumption

i think team A is clearly ahead. d2 prestige is worth very little, and the prefs are not as extremely different as they first appear. i'm not going to spend a lot of time on this, but i'm going to throw out a quick, rough, dirty modelling of the facts of the case, instead of pulling some final figure out my backside.

overall effort advantage, on a single unit of effort, goes to team B. i'm going to give them a 20% advantage in my model.

team A - max of all non-AP, i don't have a good figure for this. going to make up 1200 because why not? that makes a total of around 2300.

team B - not maxing all non-AP, let's go with about 900 for him. that is a total of around 1200. give him a 20% boost, so 1440.

2300:1440 is a ratio of 1.65:1, which is like 61.5% of the total effort. the lead team gets a boost, so i think this would put them in the low 70s. however, i believe i am likely under estimating team B advantage on effort, so i'm going to fudge this into high 60s.

let me come up with a floor and ceiling really quick - lets go with 50% on team B, which is almost certainly too much, with a more reasonable model for odds from effort. this would be 2300:1800, 56% of effort - probably at least 60% for team A to win. i think that is a reasonable floor - i'd be surprised if it wasn't at least 60%. meaning, i'm expecting at least a very high - high battle, not VH-VH.

on the high end, let's assume its still only my conservative figure of 20% effort advantage, but with a much stronger advantage for the leader. here, i'd convert being 61.5% of the effort to high 70s for B. i suppose its even possible this is barely a 100/0 battle, because the high 70s ticking to 80.01% would push it to 100% automatically. i guess i wouldn't be shocked by that, but i think its fairly unlikely (unless perhaps the distance is something like 10 miles vs 390). i'm going to go with 79% as a ceiling then :)

so 60-79% team A, with my best quess being about 69% for team B. and again, when the minutes went on is very important.

Minutes were put on before all the effort. Any other guesses? I’ll post around lunch time tomorrow.

Team B 58/42. The Long Time Coach gets my attention.

I have team B ahead as well. Prestige isn't huge in D2, but that's 7 prestige steps.

I actually have it at about 63/37 in favor of Team B. But I have a lot of fudging in there - some of the preferences are very rough estimates, and I may be overestimating them. Also, I always just guesstimate the "favorite stretch."

Hmmm, I also used the same multiplier for wants to play for both guys, which in retrospect is clearly wrong. The reality is that I virtually never promise more than 15 minutes to anybody, so I can't say how wrong that is. Another big fudge factor here, but let's say that takes it to 55/45 in favor of Team B.

interesting the disparity of opinion.

i am almost never in battlea, so this is a very uneducated guess. but im going to say team A - 59%

when i look at it, i feel like it is extremely lopsided in favor of A. but theres a part of me that thinks maybe thia is why thia is getting posted? maybe B is actually the favorite?

but iil stuck with A 59%

plus... that allows me to disagree with dasher which is always nice

I would say Team A is somewhere around 65-70%

I'll take A 55/45.

Team B at 55%

Alright! The odds were....

**drumroll please**



51/49 in favor of Team B.

Isn't that surprising?

It's very surprising. I was team B. And I thought I'd have NO shot. Because I sensed what was going on behind doors at Team A headquarters.

I thought that i wouldn't even be in the roll. I ended up leading the roll. And losing it too..... 0-7 in my last 7 rolls!!!!! Those odds are oh so important aren't they?