Player:
Wants to play
Far From Home
Wants Rebuild
Man to Man

Team A:
A+ prestige
700 AP
Max visits
25 minutes+start
Wants to play -Very Good
Far From Home - Bad
Wants Rebuild - Very Bad
Man to Man - Very Good

Team B:
D+ prestige
1,100 AP
Max visits
25 minutes+start
Wants to play -Very Good
Far From Home - Very Good
Wants Rebuild - Neutral
Man to Man - Very Good

Guess the final odds. I’ve learned a lot from these previously, so wanted to share my experience. I’ll post the results and final outcome at a later time.

D1?

Assuming it’s a D1 battle, if team B has offered max promises for all the effort, I think they are almost certainly at Very High, and likely ahead. Probably not enough to keep A at High, but maybe close. I’ll guess 56-44.

Posted by shoe3 on 7/24/2020 6:26:00 PM (view original):
D1?

Assuming it’s a D1 battle, if team B has offered max promises for all the effort, I think they are almost certainly at Very High, and likely ahead. Probably not enough to keep A at High, but maybe close. I’ll guess 56-44.

Sorry yes it’s DI and visits are offered for all effort on both

Team A ahead 57/43.

A - 100%

The far from home advantage for B makes this pretty interesting. It's a longstanding forum fact that the far/near home preference is very powerful.

I'll say A 60/40, but nothing will surprise me. I'll look forward to the answer.

if A offered the promises early, they should win easily.

those three very good preferences help team B, but no way that makes up 9 prestige grades.

I think it’s almost dead even. I’ll say Team A ahead 51/49.

Posted by oldwarrior on 7/24/2020 11:27:00 PM (view original):
if A offered the promises early, they should win easily.

those three very good preferences help team B, but no way that makes up 9 prestige grades.

Cue the “hair-splitting semantics” crowd, but calling it 9 grades instead of 3 makes the difference seem quite a bit bigger than it is.

There are two pretty important preferences going against team A, not just for team B. It’s not just about team B having an excellent preference match, team A has a specifically mediocre one. So A has a very significant prestige advantage, which by itself would put this recruit out of reach for B, all else equal. But B has a very significant preference advantage, one that is *specifically designed* to put it right back in play in situations like this. Frankly, if B wasn’t at least close to even in this situation, something wouldn’t be working right with the “wants rebuild” preference.

FWIW, I’d buy A ahead, but not way up.

I saw this one play out so I won't guess.

This just floors me.

Posted by jimmychino on 7/24/2020 8:17:00 PM (view original):
Team A ahead 57/43.

Some differing opinions but I feel most had Team A ahead and Jimmy is either clairvoyant or had some insider information but he hit it right on the head, Team A at 57% and Team B at 43%. I was surprised how many people gave Team B a fair shot, this was actually my team and I wasn’t sure I could overcome the prestige difference either but was able to keep Very High the entire time after I went all-in. My thinking as well that what’s the point of having wants rebuild and far from home preference if it doesn’t make up the difference. So the seemingly impossible is possible and as a D+ prestige I was able to land the No. 8 recruit (with some luck on the dice roll). Thought this was interesting and worth sharing. Though I’m not entirely sure how to get better than Neutral on wants rebuild, since we were a D+ prestige, so I feel the far from home preference was a bigger factor but clearly both those going against the A+ team was the difference in this battle.

Posted by rowle1js on 7/25/2020 12:41:00 PM (view original):

Posted by jimmychino on 7/24/2020 8:17:00 PM (view original):
Team A ahead 57/43.

Some differing opinions but I feel most had Team A ahead and Jimmy is either clairvoyant or had some insider information but he hit it right on the head, Team A at 57% and Team B at 43%. I was surprised how many people gave Team B a fair shot, this was actually my team and I wasn’t sure I could overcome the prestige difference either but was able to keep Very High the entire time after I went all-in. My thinking as well that what’s the point of having wants rebuild and far from home preference if it doesn’t make up the difference. So the seemingly impossible is possible and as a D+ prestige I was able to land the No. 8 recruit (with some luck on the dice roll). Thought this was interesting and worth sharing. Though I’m not entirely sure how to get better than Neutral on wants rebuild, since we were a D+ prestige, so I feel the far from home preference was a bigger factor but clearly both those going against the A+ team was the difference in this battle.

Good battle, thanks for sharing it. We don’t have a lot of these fringe battles to go on, because there aren’t many examples of people being this bold, so good for you. I’m a little surprised you didn’t have a little better odds, given your 55-35 advantage in AP, but I’m probably giving AP a little too much weight in this instance.

I hope this is encouraging for people in your position to take shots like this. I’ve never understood the thinking of people advising others to not challenge A+ teams for recruits that want rebuild.

Winner winner!

No insider information, but I do feel pretty good about my recruiting math these days. It's been honed from years of trying to knock other teams down to moderate interest because I lose every roll.

This seems nuts to me. It feels like everytime I go all in as a C vs an A I'm usually lucky to be above moderate.