Division 1 Battle:
School A: A+ prestige (lower end of A+), very good for D, very good conf strength (B+), 869 APs, start, CV, 25 minutes, 20 HVs
School B: A-prestige, very good for D, very good conf strength (B), 2030 APs, start, CV, 25 minutes, 20 HVs

What were the final odds? I’ll try and post the answer sometime tonight.

First time I've seen someone hit 2000. 60-40 for School B

A- (school B) ahead but within the VH/VH range I think. Maybe 56/44. That’s an enormous AP investment.

I'd guess School B, 65-35.

I'll go slightly closer than mlitney... 63-37.

The final result was school B led at 75%.

and did the longshot 25% get the recruit, as seems to be the case more like 50% of the time?

Posted by dirti2 on 2/2/2021 8:45:00 AM (view original):
and did the longshot 25% get the recruit, as seems to be the case more like 50% of the time?

Yep, I was school A and the recruit signed with me. I assumed in order to only have a 25% chance to land him, despite the preference advantages, school B likely needed to have more than 2,000 AP’s invested and they confirmed they did. Awful break for school B, no doubt.

Posted by darnoc29099 on 2/2/2021 12:26:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dirti2 on 2/2/2021 8:45:00 AM (view original):
and did the longshot 25% get the recruit, as seems to be the case more like 50% of the time?

Yep, I was school A and the recruit signed with me. I assumed in order to only have a 25% chance to land him, despite the preference advantages, school B likely needed to have more than 2,000 AP’s invested and they confirmed they did. Awful break for school B, no doubt.

Wow. Just wow.

It would certainly sting losing a 75-25 battle. But the worst part for me is sinking that many attention points and not winning. How much did that team's other recruiting suffer?

Was that 80 AP every single cycle until signing?

Yeah, that's got to be 80 AP per cycle (or very close). Sorry to whoever is coaching School B, I hope you were able to sign a couple recruits for free.

Posted by mlitney on 2/2/2021 1:26:00 PM (view original):
Yeah, that's got to be 80 AP per cycle (or very close). Sorry to whoever is coaching School B, I hope you were able to sign a couple recruits for free.

That kind of loss makes a person consider if they want to keep playing.

I rant and rave when I lose recruits at times. I just try to remember the times I won as an underdog (far fewer than I'd like though!).

Posted by dirti2 on 2/2/2021 8:45:00 AM (view original):
and did the longshot 25% get the recruit, as seems to be the case more like 50% of the time?

assuming you are joking. The reality is that it evens out. I have actually never won a role in Iba/Wooden (my main worlds) from under 39% in 10-15 ttries.

Posted by darnoc29099 on 2/2/2021 12:26:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dirti2 on 2/2/2021 8:45:00 AM (view original):
and did the longshot 25% get the recruit, as seems to be the case more like 50% of the time?

Yep, I was school A and the recruit signed with me. I assumed in order to only have a 25% chance to land him, despite the preference advantages, school B likely needed to have more than 2,000 AP’s invested and they confirmed they did. Awful break for school B, no doubt.

So how would you break that percentage down? Admittedly I haven't the foggiest on how these rolls are calculated so correct me if I'm way off the mark here... but on attention points alone between the 2 schools - school A put in 869 of the 2899 total APs of both schools (29.98%) to school B's 2030 of 2899 (70.02%).

Even assuming all AP's to be equal (which I don't think is true), shouldn't school B should be up 70-30 here before taking into account preferences? And after taking into account preferences/prestige which lean slightly towards school A... shouldn't it end up being closer than 70-30?

I’m obviously a bit surprised it was that lopsided, but I suspect these two teams were probably a bit closer in prestige than a typical A+ / A- battle. Then again, I haven’t see any cases where a team sinks 2000+ AP, so...

Posted by danpilgrim1 on 2/2/2021 6:58:00 PM (view original):

Posted by darnoc29099 on 2/2/2021 12:26:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dirti2 on 2/2/2021 8:45:00 AM (view original):
and did the longshot 25% get the recruit, as seems to be the case more like 50% of the time?

Yep, I was school A and the recruit signed with me. I assumed in order to only have a 25% chance to land him, despite the preference advantages, school B likely needed to have more than 2,000 AP’s invested and they confirmed they did. Awful break for school B, no doubt.

So how would you break that percentage down? Admittedly I haven't the foggiest on how these rolls are calculated so correct me if I'm way off the mark here... but on attention points alone between the 2 schools - school A put in 869 of the 2899 total APs of both schools (29.98%) to school B's 2030 of 2899 (70.02%).

Even assuming all AP's to be equal (which I don't think is true), shouldn't school B should be up 70-30 here before taking into account preferences? And after taking into account preferences/prestige which lean slightly towards school A... shouldn't it end up being closer than 70-30?

The leader gets the benefit of a “stretch”. You have to actually be quite a bit closer in actual effort credit to get in on a roll than what the final odds indicate, somewhere in the vicinity of within 60% of the effort credit of the leader. So at the extreme cases, a 63-37 roll gets stretched to look something like 78-22. (I don’t know if there are any 80-20 rolls, I don’t know if I’ve seen one that long or not).