Round 6 stats thru 162 games Topic

schwarze
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Here are all the teams, ranked by wins, then by run differential (thru 41 games). Yes, I realize I am leaving out home field in the tie-breaker. I will add that when more games get played. (Excel turns these low-volume W-L records into dates, i.e., a 10-8 W-L record gets changed to October 8).
4/13/2021 2:21 PM
schwarze
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Rank Team Owner Wins RunDiff Pick#
---------- ------------------------------- ----------------------- ----------- ------------- -----------
1 Gooden-ough? harrelson 28 52 10
2 Tigers 20, Browns 38, Senators 57,61 kstober 27 79 17
3 09 Superbas 10 Doves 33 Phils 81 Mets contrarian23 27 16 21
4 19StL-01Pit-12Col-75Hou pedrocerrano 26 47 6
5 89Atl-62Hou-70SD-42Bos pedrocerrano 26 73 24
6 07Bos-85Clev-19KC-04KC pedrocerrano 25 12 1
7 02 Det 31 Det 40 Phi 63 Was schwarze 24 35 8
8 SLB-TB-SEA-CLE spinaldog 24 9 12
9 Losing Team Smorgasbord coachgreat1 24 26 1
10 Bob Johnson for MVP redcped 23 15 9
11 Sudden Sam and Puck's Abrupt Finale redcped 23 4 19
12 14 Reds 26 Phils 77 Braves 17 Giants contrarian23 23 25 15
13 Pennsylvania Marlins darny10 23 -13 12
14 10 Sea 77 Oak 50 Chi 21 Phi schwarze 22 33 4
15 13 cws 48 stl 58 was 01 tbr mllama54 22 24 13
16 37 A's 54 O's 53 Tigers 98 Rays contrarian23 22 9 15
17 16 Cards, 36 Phils, 81 Padres, 12 Astros kstober 22 -1 17
18 82 Cin 66 Chi 07 Bos 99 Fla schwarze 22 -7 16
19 Heilmann Played for the Reds? nocomm999 22 2 18
20 27 Browns 31 WSox 55 O's 67 A's DarthDurron 21 33 24
21 Tommy John and The Surgeons harrelson 21 26 22
22 29 WS 38 A's 69 Pilots 99 Twins contrarian23 21 2 14
23 R6 L2 P10 ybjsports 21 -29 10
24 Baby Herman and Wreck It Ralph redcped 21 -32 2
25 Foxx's Fabulous Fellows loyalcanuck 20 -30 7
26 73 Tex 81 BJ's 82 Twins 91 Indians DarthDurron 20 -45 21
27 06STL/56CHC/09PIT/85SFG toysboys 20 21 8
28 18 StL 08 SD 24 Phi 10 Pit schwarze 20 19 7
29 Almost Mediocre Cavaliers markeking 20 9 13
30 77 NY 79 NY 03 SD 22 Bos schwarze 19 14 3
31 On Second Thought, Let's Just Play One redcped 19 7 20
32 Mr. Cub and Mr. Padre redcped 19 -29 9
33 17Det-57KCA-61KCA-06TB pedrocerrano 18 15 6
34 Senators 06, Tigers 89, Browns 33,36 kstober 18 2 23
35 SLB05PHA3653BAL01 SteveIzzy 18 -5 3
36 15CLE/65BOS/72TEX/50SLB toysboys 18 -8 5
37 92SEA/62WSA/64KCA/78TOR toysboys 18 -10 20
38 Ichiro's Inconsequential Imps loyalcanuck 18 -26 18
39 Whit and the Half-Wits thejuice6 18 -60 16
40 09 Cards, 46 Giants, 22,60 Phils kstober 17 -1 22
41 Best Of The Bad joerat1 17 -3 5
42 Joey V. and the Boyz thejuice6 17 -44 19
43 The Noodles Dream (Reds/Phils) firesalt 17 -47 11
44 19 Was 34 Chi 09 Bal 64 Was schwarze 16 -39 2
45 R6 L1 P4 ybjsports 16 -7 4
46 13NYY/87CLE/56WSH/60KCA Chisock 14 -46 11
47 92 Dodgers 98 Marlins 33 Reds 81 Cubs SAKABAKBRG 14 -69 23
48 37 Reds 44 BJ's 55 Pirates 2012 Cubs DarthDurron 13 -58 14
4/13/2021 2:22 PM
schwarze
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I know it's still early, but there was no advantage to picking early in this draft. In fact, the correlation coefficient between draft pick order and wins is actually slightly negative.
.
Pick# Wins Losses Win% Rd 6
----------- ----------- ----------- -------------- -----------
1 49 33 0.598 2
2 37 45 0.451 1
3 37 45 0.451 0
4 38 44 0.463 1
5 35 47 0.427 0
6 44 38 0.537 1
7 40 42 0.488 0
8 44 38 0.537 1
9 42 40 0.512 1
10 49 33 0.598 2
11 31 51 0.378 0
12 47 35 0.573 2
13 42 40 0.512 1
14 34 48 0.415 1
15 45 37 0.549 2
16 40 42 0.488 1
17 49 33 0.598 2
18 40 42 0.488 1
19 40 42 0.488 1
20 37 45 0.451 0
21 47 35 0.573 1
22 38 44 0.463 1
23 32 50 0.390 0
24 47 35 0.573 2
4/13/2021 2:24 PM
schwarze
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Total wins by draft pick, grouped by every 4 picks...
.
Picks 1 thru 4 -- 161 wins
Picks 5 thru 8 -- 163 wins
Picks 9 thru 12 -- 169 wins
Picks 13 thru 16 -- 161 wins
Picks 17 thru 20 -- 166 wins
Picks 21 thru 24 -- 164 wins
4/13/2021 2:31 PM (edited)
schwarze
Posts: 44829 (12)
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Ironically, my six teams' success is completely opposite of where I drafted them..
.
American League
Pick #2, 16 wins
Pick #4, 22 wins
Pick #8, 24 wins
.
National League
Pick #3, 19 wins
Pick #7, 20 wins
Pick #16, 22 wins
4/13/2021 2:30 PM
contrarian23
Posts: 23160 (7)
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Color me very surprised by the results so far. Will be interesting to see if it keeps up
4/14/2021 6:53 PM
redcped
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If my math is correct, at the 54-game mark every team that's at least 27-27 would move on. And one of the five non-playoff 26-28 teams would get in right now. There's one 25-29 team leading a division, too.

League 1 AL East would advance all four teams.
4/17/2021 9:33 PM
schwarze
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81 Game Update
4/26/2021 8:25 PM
schwarze
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Thru 81 games, two below .500 playoff teams pushes a 41-30 team out of Round 2.
.
Rank Team Owner Wins Home RunDiff Pick#
---------- ------------------------------- ----------------------- ----------- ---------- ------------- -----------
1 09 Superbas 10 Doves 33 Phils 81 Mets contrarian23 52 29-11 88 21
2 14 Reds 26 Phils 77 Braves 17 Giants contrarian23 50 27-13 108 15
3 19StL-01Pit-12Col-75Hou pedrocerrano 50 25-16 92 6
4 Bob Johnson for MVP redcped 48 22-19 58 9
5 77 NY 79 NY 03 SD 22 Bos schwarze 48 20-20 111 3
6 Sudden Sam and Puck's Abrupt Finale redcped 47 25-16 41 19
7 07Bos-85Clev-19KC-04KC pedrocerrano 47 19-19 45 1
8 89Atl-62Hou-70SD-42Bos pedrocerrano 46 25-16 58 24
9 13 cws 48 stl 58 was 01 tbr mllama54 45 23-17 61 13
10 Tigers 20, Browns 38, Senators 57,61 kstober 45 21-19 80 17
11 13NYY/87CLE/56WSH/60KCA Chisock 44 24-16 21 11
12 02 Det 31 Det 40 Phi 63 Was schwarze 44 23-18 59 8
13 Pennsylvania Marlins darny10 44 22-19 5 12
14 37 A's 54 O's 53 Tigers 98 Rays contrarian23 44 21-19 38 15
15 Almost Mediocre Cavaliers markeking 43 20-18 3 13
16 Heilmann Played for the Reds? nocomm999 42 26-14 -32 18
17 09 Cards, 46 Giants, 22,60 Phils kstober 42 25-18 57 22
18 92SEA/62WSA/64KCA/78TOR toysboys 42 20-20 39 20
19 Gooden-ough? harrelson 42 20-21 31 10
20 10 Sea 77 Oak 50 Chi 21 Phi schwarze 42 19-22 48 4
21 15CLE/65BOS/72TEX/50SLB toysboys 40 18-23 19 5
22 Losing Team Smorgasbord coachgreat1 40 18-23 -32 1
23 SLB-TB-SEA-CLE spinaldog 41 23-15 -31 12
24 R6 L2 P10 ybjsports 41 22-21 -54 10
25 Foxx's Fabulous Fellows loyalcanuck 41 17-23 -45 7
26 27 Browns 31 WSox 55 O's 67 A's DarthDurron 40 22-18 43 24
27 73 Tex 81 BJ's 82 Twins 91 Indians DarthDurron 40 22-19 -56 21
28 19 Was 34 Chi 09 Bal 64 Was schwarze 40 21-20 19 2
29 Joey V. and the Boyz thejuice6 40 21-20 -42 19
30 R6 L1 P4 ybjsports 40 19-22 63 4
31 Baby Herman and Wreck It Ralph redcped 39 21-19 -23 2
32 18 StL 08 SD 24 Phi 10 Pit schwarze 39 18-23 1 7
33 06STL/56CHC/09PIT/85SFG toysboys 39 15-25 -17 8
34 29 WS 38 A's 69 Pilots 99 Twins contrarian23 37 22-19 -16 14
35 Tommy John and The Surgeons harrelson 37 18-25 -35 22
36 82 Cin 66 Chi 07 Bos 99 Fla schwarze 37 15-26 -23 16
37 The Noodles Dream (Reds/Phils) firesalt 36 18-22 -45 11
38 On Second Thought, Let's Just Play One redcped 36 15-25 -12 20
39 37 Reds 44 BJ's 55 Pirates 2012 Cubs DarthDurron 36 15-25 -57 14
40 Whit and the Half-Wits thejuice6 35 18-22 -80 16
41 Mr. Cub and Mr. Padre redcped 35 17-23 -56 9
42 SLB05PHA3653BAL01 SteveIzzy 35 17-24 -40 3
43 Senators 06, Tigers 89, Browns 33,36 kstober 33 19-21 -71 23
44 16 Cards, 36 Phils, 81 Padres, 12 Astros kstober 33 17-26 -93 17
45 Best Of The Bad joerat1 33 15-26 -61 5
46 17Det-57KCA-61KCA-06TB pedrocerrano 33 14-26 -29 6
47 Ichiro's Inconsequential Imps loyalcanuck 31 12-29 -114 18
48 92 Dodgers 98 Marlins 33 Reds 81 Cubs SAKABAKBRG 30 13-25 -124 23
4/26/2021 8:26 PM
schwarze
Posts: 44829 (12)
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The correlation between pick# and wins is still slightly negative.
.
Pick# Wins Losses Win% Rd 7
----------- ----------- ----------- -------------- -----------
1 87 75 0.537 2
2 79 83 0.488 0
3 83 79 0.512 1
4 82 80 0.506 1
5 73 89 0.451 1
6 83 79 0.512 1
7 80 82 0.494 0
8 83 79 0.512 1
9 83 79 0.512 1
10 83 79 0.512 2
11 80 82 0.494 1
12 85 77 0.525 2
13 88 74 0.543 2
14 73 89 0.451 0
15 94 68 0.580 2
16 72 90 0.444 0
17 78 84 0.481 1
18 73 89 0.451 1
19 87 75 0.537 1
20 78 84 0.481 1
21 92 70 0.568 1
22 79 83 0.488 1
23 63 99 0.389 0
24 86 76 0.531 1
4/26/2021 8:32 PM
schwarze
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143 Game Update
5/17/2021 4:09 PM
schwarze
Posts: 44829 (12)
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Standings
.
Rank Team Owner Wins Home RunDiff Pick#
---------- ------------------------------- ----------------------- ----------- ---------- ------------- -----------
1 07Bos-85Clev-19KC-04KC pedrocerrano 89 40-31 144 1
2 77 NY 79 NY 03 SD 22 Bos schwarze 82 37-33 175 3
3 89Atl-62Hou-70SD-42Bos pedrocerrano 81 47-27 104 24
4 19StL-01Pit-12Col-75Hou pedrocerrano 81 39-35 65 6
5 Bob Johnson for MVP redcped 80 41-33 28 9
6 SLB-TB-SEA-CLE spinaldog 78 44-27 36 12
7 02 Det 31 Det 40 Phi 63 Was schwarze 78 41-32 126 8
8 Gooden-ough? harrelson 78 41-33 38 10
9 Tigers 20, Browns 38, Senators 57,61 kstober 78 37-32 114 17
10 37 A's 54 O's 53 Tigers 98 Rays contrarian23 78 35-35 52 15
11 On Second Thought, Let's Just Play One redcped 77 38-32 82 20
12 09 Superbas 10 Doves 33 Phils 81 Mets contrarian23 77 38-32 41 21
13 06STL/56CHC/09PIT/85SFG toysboys 77 32-37 60 8
14 09 Cards, 46 Giants, 22,60 Phils kstober 76 38-34 47 22
15 Almost Mediocre Cavaliers markeking 76 36-35 -4 13
16 27 Browns 31 WSox 55 O's 67 A's DarthDurron 75 40-29 30 24
17 14 Reds 26 Phils 77 Braves 17 Giants contrarian23 75 38-32 64 15
18 13 cws 48 stl 58 was 01 tbr mllama54 75 38-32 53 13
19 Sudden Sam and Puck's Abrupt Finale redcped 75 37-36 51 19
20 37 Reds 44 BJ's 55 Pirates 2012 Cubs DarthDurron 75 34-35 15 14
21 18 StL 08 SD 24 Phi 10 Pit schwarze 75 36-38 45 7
22 13NYY/87CLE/56WSH/60KCA Chisock 74 37-33 8 11
23 Pennsylvania Marlins darny10 74 37-36 30 12
24 19 Was 34 Chi 09 Bal 64 Was schwarze 73 39-35 28 2
25 15CLE/65BOS/72TEX/50SLB toysboys 72 34-39 56 5
26 Heilmann Played for the Reds? nocomm999 72 41-28 -45 18
27 92SEA/62WSA/64KCA/78TOR toysboys 72 35-35 23 20
28 SLB05PHA3653BAL01 SteveIzzy 71 39-35 11 3
29 73 Tex 81 BJ's 82 Twins 91 Indians DarthDurron 71 38-36 -102 21
30 17Det-57KCA-61KCA-06TB pedrocerrano 70 31-38 85 6
31 Losing Team Smorgasbord coachgreat1 69 34-39 -33 1
32 R6 L2 P10 ybjsports 68 32-40 -102 10
33 10 Sea 77 Oak 50 Chi 21 Phi schwarze 68 30-44 -3 4
34 Joey V. and the Boyz thejuice6 67 36-38 -108 19
35 The Noodles Dream (Reds/Phils) firesalt 67 32-37 -62 11
36 Senators 06, Tigers 89, Browns 33,36 kstober 66 34-35 -51 23
37 R6 L1 P4 ybjsports 66 36-38 20 4
38 Baby Herman and Wreck It Ralph redcped 66 32-37 -62 2
39 Mr. Cub and Mr. Padre redcped 66 31-38 -38 9
40 29 WS 38 A's 69 Pilots 99 Twins contrarian23 63 37-36 -77 14
41 Whit and the Half-Wits thejuice6 62 31-38 -153 16
42 Tommy John and The Surgeons harrelson 62 29-43 -62 22
43 82 Cin 66 Chi 07 Bos 99 Fla schwarze 61 30-43 -68 16
44 Ichiro's Inconsequential Imps loyalcanuck 61 29-45 -82 18
45 Best Of The Bad joerat1 60 34-39 -64 5
46 92 Dodgers 98 Marlins 33 Reds 81 Cubs SAKABAKBRG 59 31-40 -175 23
47 16 Cards, 36 Phils, 81 Padres, 12 Astros kstober 59 28-44 -127 17
48 Foxx's Fabulous Fellows loyalcanuck 57 24-45 -213 7
5/17/2021 4:11 PM
schwarze
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Note that if the season ended today, toysboys #27 ranked team would bump my #24 ranked team out of Round 7, due to his playoff qualification.
5/17/2021 4:12 PM
schwarze
Posts: 44829 (12)
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The regression model shows a very slight positive correlation to draft order. The regression formula is 72.96 - 0.116 X where X is draft pick order. So the #1 draft pick's expected win total is 72.8 and the #24 draft pick's expected win total is 70.2 (thru 143 games).
5/17/2021 4:15 PM
toysboys
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Wow, how about pedrocerrano's #24 pick being ranked 3rd? Also, most home wins.
5/17/2021 7:08 PM
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