Diamonds of the 21st Century
Pre-draft strategy:
While the actual salaries will be inflated with lots of excess PA/IP, this league still should play effectively like a very high cap. The replacement-level should be enormous, especially on the pitching side where you can fill in hundreds of innings with a single pick.
I essentially thought about 3 types of pitchers--big-inning deadballers, normal-inning starters, and low-inning relievers. For hitters, again 3 main buckets--infield (SS/2B/3B), outfield (OF/1B/DH), and catcher.
I saw two main buckets of strategies. (1) Get a bunch of innings with one pick. This would allow me to get one or two reliever picks without worrying about innings. Then I could spend 5 or 6 picks on hitters, allowing me to split up the IF and OF buckets. This would be especially helpful with the IF where there just aren't a lot of guys with good enough seasons who play 2B/3B and SS. (2) Fill the hitters with just 3 or 4 picks. To do this, will likely need one hitter to cover SS/2B/3B, one catcher, and then two guys to split the OF/1B/DH (probably one more defense/speed to handle CF and the other more of a basher to handle DH/1B/corner OF type spots.
I felt there would be the ability to get a ton of "replacement" level innings even in Round 9, so I didn't worry too much about filling up my innings. The middle rounds definitely provided opportunities mostly for relievers and the OF/1B/DH bucket.
Draft Slot: 18th
I didn't put too much thought into this. As expected, most owners went to the extremes and were filling in with the highest or lowest draft spot remaining. I did the same and chose lower so I'd have a higher pick in Round 5, in case that mattered.
Pick 1.18: P Pedro Martinez
When it got to me, I had yet to do any research. It felt that in the 1st Round, the priority should be the elite of the elite. Obviously, most of those guys went--the Ruths, Bondses, Silver Kings. Positionally, catcher and SS are going to be the hardest to fill, followed by 2B and 3B, so ideally could grab one of those. Or on the pitching side, if you can get an elite pitcher with tons of innings, that should let you fill out your staff with high-value relievers.
All that said, the absolute best per-inning pitcher in the WIS database with over 100 IP is Pedro. On the hitter's side, Hugh Duffy's monster season was intriguing as was getting Jimmie Foxx to play catcher. But ultimately, getting Pedro was too good to pass up. Duffy, did go with the very next pick. [Post note: When I did finish my research, I actually had Pedro as the #2 pitcher overall in the "1-clone" bucket, after Silver King, so happy he was there for me.]
Pick 2.8: P Clayton Kershaw
Still hadn't done my research but was hoping Foxx would fall. He's almost the perfect 2-clone player, getting to play his 1935 season at catcher (and you don't need a backup, he's got 706 PA) and his 1932 season at 1B (and bonus flexibility at 3B, he's D/D there). Unfortunately, he went 3 picks before me. Was also eyeing Mantle, but he went right before. When it got to my pick, I dug in a little deeper and focused on Musial, Dimaggio, or Mays. I didn't want to take an OF, ideally, but those guys are elite enough. I especially liked Musial as a lefty who could play 1B and CF.
But coming back to the pitching side, Kershaw stuck out. Like Pedro, the volume isn't there, but outside of under-100 IP relievers, Kershaw is the best there is remaining. He offers a bit of flexibility as well--I hope to take his 2016 season with 149 IP but can flip to his 2013 or 2015 seasons if I need some more innings.
Pick 3.8: OF Al Simmons
This was a very difficult decision for me. I wanted to grab two elite relievers, but ideally do so in rounds 4 and 5. I was debting between Kimbrel, Rivera, and Gagne. Gagne had the 3 elite seasons, so he was my top choice if I went this route. Nobody had taken any relievers yet though, so I thought I could wait. [Post note: Schwarze took Gagne. I think I made out okay but would I have been better off with Gagne here and then an OF instead of Hendriks later on?]
I had now finished my research and so was feeling a bit better about my pool. I was looking at two different pools--1B/OF and IF. Pujols was intriguing--he doesn't really play OF but I think his very good 1B ratings would play in the OF corners. He also has a reasonable 3B season, though it's not one of his best hitting seasons. Larry Walker was on my list, but he went just ahead. Al Simmons has some very nice seasons and can play CF but still has the elite hitting to play in the corners.
In the MIF, it was A-Rod, Tulo, Mike Schmidt, and Joe Morgan. A-Rod of course has ratings at 3B as well, while Tulo's SS defense can play anywhere. It's really hard to take a 3B or 2B in a clone league. In this league especially, I felt there's too much talent to take the hit of playing a 2B/3B out of position at SS. So that forces you to likely spend two additional picks on a SS and a C. I thought a bit about Lou Boudreau but he doesn't really help a ton here...his 2nd-best season is basically replacement-level and his 3rd/4th-best seasons aren't good enough to handle 2B or 3B.
I felt I could wait on the relievers and while SS was a little shallower, it did have less of a drop-off, so I went with Simmons.
Pick 4.18: P Aroldis Chapman
I felt okay about my 3rd-round pick for the rest of the round. Pujols and A-Rod went. Rivera and Gagne went, but that was it for relievers. Then the 4th round started and relievers started flying off the board. Nine relievers--Kimbrel, Eckersley, Miller, Wagner, Nathan, Jansen, Wilhelm, Papelbon, and Gossage--went ahead of me. Luckily, a couple survived. It came down to Chapman and Koji Uehara. Given Chapman was a lefty, that gave him the tiebreaker. Now I can take a right reliever in one of the next couple rounds and I'll have great right/left balance with Pedro/Kershaw and Chapman/RHP reliever.
Pick 5.8: SS Troy Tulowitzki
I'm now starting to plan out my last few picks with a little more clarity. I have 7 pitchers, so 6 slots remaining. I can go 5th and 9th rounds (5+1) or 6th and 8th (4+2). Assuming I get about 200-300 innings from my reliever pick, that will leave me needing about 400-500 innings at a minimum from my last pitching pick. That's easier to do if I can get two pitchers to pair up. Otherwise, I'll need to take someone like Charlie Ferguson in the final round.
On the flip side, three of my picks will be hitters and I likely need an IF (2B/3B/SS), a 1B/DH (also spell Simmons in the OF a bit), and a C. Catcher will be one of the final 2 picks and like the pitching spot, it'll be easier to cover the needed at-bats with two clones instead of just one. My 7th round pick will almost for sure be my 1B/DH. And that means this pick and my next one need to cover a reliever and a shortstop/infielder.
I went back and forth a million times. In fact, I went to bed two picks away and had already loaded Liam Hendriks into my draft center. He has three fantastic seasons and with pretty good volume as well. His 4th and 5th best seasons aren't as great, but do provide another 120 innings. That had given him the edge over Uehara.
I had been looking at three guys for the infield spot--Tulo, Eddie Collins, and Schmidt. Tulo has one elite season (just 375 PA) and the rest of his seasons are very good both hitting and fielding. The downsides are that he's right-handed and relies more on power (which won't play as well in this league with all the deadballers). Collins is left-handed and a better hitter who relies less on power. The problem is he'll be a huge liability at SS (he does have a D/D season there) and then likely struggle at 3B as well. Still, the hitting benefits would be sizable as he's better overall and a better fit (both lefty and non-power) for my lineup and this league. Schmidt is a monster hitter, but he's righty and relies even more on power than Tulo. He has ratings at SS but even worse than Collins.
When I woke up in the morning, I instead talked myself into Tulo. I really just didn't like the other options I had to fill out my IF. It also gave me at least the option to use my 2-clone 8th round pick on a pitcher if I wanted. I really hope I don't fall off too far from Hendriks/Uehara. There's a looooong wait to my next pick.
Pick 6.18: P Liam Hendriks
I knew almost for sure I wanted a pitcher here. Hendriks, who I had been considering for a few rounds was still on the board. I also looked at Corbin Burnes, Josh Hader, and Troy Percival. On the hitting side, nothing really stood out. If I could have gotten a player who could have pulled catching duty as well as given me some 1B/DH/OF at-bats, that could have been intriguing but Cap Anson's 2nd and lower years just aren't good enough and Napoli doesn't really have enough value or at-bats either. Plus, I want a lefty hitter given Simmons and Tulo both bat righty.
Strategically, at this point, I will likely take two pitchers, one here and then one in the final two rounds. The number of innings I get here will dictate what I can do with my last pitcher pick. Hendriks has 289 innings across his top 4 seaons, though 65 of those aren't elite level. Still, that gets me to 1088. I should have the option to go with two shorter-inning pitchers in Round 8 (like Joe Wood or maybe Shane Bieber if I want to cut it close) or possibly someone like Toad Ramsey with a good reliever year and a big inning starter year. Hendriks it is.
Pick 7.8: 1B Jason Giambi
I have 11 pitcher seasons, so I cannot take a pitcher here. I'm fully set at 2.5 OF positions (Simmons will need a little help with at-bats) and SS, plus likely set at 2B and 3B with Tulo. That means I need a 1B, C, and DH...plus hopefully someone who can help in the OF a bit. And I definitely prefer a lefty.
That last part is troublesome because the best bats available to me are mostly right-handed. Mark McGwire got a long look as did Bagwell. I looked again at Cap Anson but still can't stomach using more than his top season. He's an ideal candidate for Round 9 if I still need my catcher.
Shifting to lefties, the top candidates are Juan Soto, Duke Snider, Willie McCovey, and Giambi. I liked that Giambi had relatively high batting averages, good defensive numbers at 1B that could also hold their own in the OF, and three high-level seasons. He'll be our full-time 1B and DH and will likely play his 3rd season in RF against righties, to get all 3 Giambi's left-handed bats in the lineup and save some of Simmons at-bats.
Pick 8.18: P Shane Bieber
Now it's decision time. Option 1 is to take my catcher here, where I can get two versions to cover the necessary PA. Napoli, Javy Lopez, Buck Ewing all in play here, among others. I prefer Napoli of the group, but I also prefer taking a lefty or switch-hitter. My options are more limited there especially after Bill Dickey went. Of the lefties, though, there are a few that could handle the full load if I can grab them in Round 9--Duke Farrell, Darrell Porter, etc. Or I can always take a righty like Campanella if needed. I even considered taking Javy Lopez's 495 PA and just trying to stretch it as much as possible with Tulo soaking up blowouts behind the plate. If I went this option, I would need to get 400+ innings from a single pitcher. I liked Scott Stratton in this case, but had a few other options like Charlie Ferguson or Toad Ramsey if needed.
Option 2 was to take a pitcher here to improve the quality of my innings, then take a full-time catcher in Round 9. I also had the option to get a few more innings out of Kershaw if needed. My main considerations here were Shane Bieber and Toad Ramsey. Bieber has the fantastic 200+ IP 2020 season plus another reasonable 200+ IP to get me over 1500 total. Ramsey has the 700 IP season with a 2.35 ERC# plus a really good 115 IP season. I definitely wouldn't have issues with innings in this case.
I ultimately decided to roll the dice on Bieber. I was hoping to get Porter in Round 9 (679 PA), who wasn't that much of a downgrade from Napoli/Lopez. And while Ramsey had more innings, Bieber had more elite innings. If I can get to the playoffs, I have 1232 IP with 1.88 ERC# or better.
Pick 9.8: C Darrell Porter
Porter made it back to me. He's my one hitter without much power but he has 679 PA, an A+ arm, and a .418 OBP#. Plus he gives me another lefty to balance the lineup a bit.
Ballpark: Fenway Park (Pedro)
I know I'll have one of the more slugging-heavy lineups, but I also have all modern pitchers (from 2000 or later) so giving up home runs could be an issue. Fenway has the +4 for 2B and is neutral on HR (+1 for LF so Simmons and Tulo get a little bump!). Hopefully my 1511 IP can hold up, I think they will.
Lineup:
LF 31 Simmons
1B 00 Giambi
CF 30 Simmons
RF 01 Giambi/27 Simmons
3B 14 Tulo
DH 02 Giambi
2B 10 Tulo
SS 11 Tulo
C 79 Porter
Pitching staff:
Starters = 00 Pedro, 14 Kershaw, 20 Bieber
Long A = 16 Kershaw
Relievers = four Chapmans and four Hendrikses
Long B/Mop = 21 Bieber
Post-draft recap:
Based on my analysis, I felt most people dipped too far below the league replacement level, especially for hitters. That means I'm probably wrong, lol. My biggest risk, by far, is my reliance on more modern players--if my hitters are neutered by deadballers, we could be in big trouble. Except for Porter, by hitters are mostly high-average and high-OBP, so hopefully that helps mitigate the issues some, but I'm definitely worried. Fenway was also chosen with that in mind.
I'm also a bit worried about playing Tulo out of position at 2B and 3B. I'm in fatguyrd's clones progressive, so have some experience there, but I don't have a great feel. Tulo does have fantastic defensive ratings at SS, so hopefully he does fine. I'm also playing Giambi's A/A- 1B season in RF against righties, so we'll see how that goes. I have done that quite a bit (1B in the OF) in Schwarze's Quick Draft leagues. If not, I can always put one of my Tulos out there.
My pitching staff should be one of the best in the league. As I mentioned above I have 1232 IP at 1.88 ERC# or better and my other 280 or so IP are under 3.00 ERC# as well. All are modern pitchers so HR could be a bit of an issue but there's also a lot of owners who shied away from big boppers, so I think my guys should be fine.
Overall, I'm cautiously optimistic. I feel very good about my team based on my analysis so my biggest risks are that my players just aren't as effective at this high of a cap or against these types of players (e.g. deadballers, etc.).
Fun draft and can't wait to see how this one shakes out and what the next version might be!