I feel like I'm in the Twilight Zone! I started off the WISC with a "MAUCH" (0-6) and now I start off Round Four of this tournament with a "MAUCH + 1" (0-7). Will this nightmare ever end?

A mediocre 7-8 session.

The seven wins were by a a total of 48 runs (+8, +6, +16, +4, +3, +8, +3). The eight losses were by a total of 16 runs (-1, -1, -3, -2, -5, -1, -2, -1). Good to see some things never change.

10-1 pm2 session and I want to quit so I can go out on top!

After the end of Day 1, my seven teams are a cumulative 4 and 17. We're cooking now!

Since I have 6 teams here, I can celebrate a schwarze in this tourney too!

Three recent boxscores, presented without comment...

https://www.whatifsports.com/slb/Boxscore.aspx?gid=41650514&pid=1&pbp=0&tf=10

https://www.whatifsports.com/slb/Boxscore.aspx?gid=41650503&pid=1&pbp=0&tf=10

https://www.whatifsports.com/slb/Boxscore.aspx?gid=41652583&pid=1&pbp=0&tf=10

Just went 5-10 with my 15 teams, yet still outscored opponents by 7 runs (+34 in 5 wins, -27 in 10 losses, including 0-3 in 1-run games). These type of sessions makes me wonder just how many losses I can reasonably have in one session while still outscoring opponents. If 4-11 possible? 3-12? Surely, not 1-14. I think if I went 0-14 in 1-run games in one session, I'd probably quit playing.

12 of my 15 teams are performing worse than their Exp Win%, many by a pretty large margin. The difference between winning 1-run games and losing them... my six teams over .500 are a combined 8-7 in 1-run games. My other nine teams are a combined 5-15.
.

Team Name	League	Win-Loss	Winning%	Exp Win%	Difference	1-Run W-L
Tigers 09-30-45-67-87-05	3	8-2	0.800	0.833	-0.033	2-1
Giants 21-33-47-63-95-09	1	7-3	0.700	0.786	-0.086	1-1
Cubs 06-23-44-66-90-14	4	7-3	0.700	0.719	-0.019	1-1
Twins 19-31-45-70-86-06	7	6-4	0.600	0.753	-0.153	1-2
Giants 05-36-50-78-87-04	1	6-4	0.600	0.591	+0.009	2-2
Athletics 14-30-47-81-94-03	2	6-4	0.600	0.553	+0.047	1-0
Pirates 03-28-44--70-87-12	5	5-5	0.500	0.680	-0.180	0-2
Cardinals 22-42-57-72-87-06	3	5-5	0.500	0.643	-0.143	0-1
Reds 20-24-44-76-91-14	7	5-5	0.500	0.589	-0.089	2-0
Indians 03-30-44-69-88-16	5	5-5	0.500	0.574	-0.074	1-4
Yankees 19-1937-45-78-02-17	1	5-5	0.500	0.443	+0.057	0-1
Dodgers 20-30-49-70-85-11	2	4-6	0.400	0.552	-0.152	0-2
White Sox 19-27-58-64-01-14	4	4-6	0.400	0.531	-0.131	0-1
Braves 18-28-48-74-96-10	6	4-6	0.400	0.500	-0.100	0-1
Red Sox 08-41-58-64-81-18	6	4-6	0.400	0.500	-0.100	2-3
Averages		5.4-4.6	0.540	0.616	-0.076	13-22

Posted by schwarze on 6/19/2023 8:16:00 AM (view original):
Three recent boxscores, presented without comment...

https://www.whatifsports.com/slb/Boxscore.aspx?gid=41650514&pid=1&pbp=0&tf=10

https://www.whatifsports.com/slb/Boxscore.aspx?gid=41650503&pid=1&pbp=0&tf=10

https://www.whatifsports.com/slb/Boxscore.aspx?gid=41652583&pid=1&pbp=0&tf=10

Pedro Dibut is broken.

Posted by redcped on 6/19/2023 1:58:00 PM (view original):

Posted by schwarze on 6/19/2023 8:16:00 AM (view original):
Three recent boxscores, presented without comment...

https://www.whatifsports.com/slb/Boxscore.aspx?gid=41650514&pid=1&pbp=0&tf=10

https://www.whatifsports.com/slb/Boxscore.aspx?gid=41650503&pid=1&pbp=0&tf=10

https://www.whatifsports.com/slb/Boxscore.aspx?gid=41652583&pid=1&pbp=0&tf=10

Pedro Dibut is broken.

Aroldis Chapman (0.83 whip and .121 oav in real life) isn't exactly instilling confidence either with his 16.20 sim ERA, although that's 5x better than Dibut's sim ERA.

The good news is that my Actual-to-Expected winning% difference has improved from -0.076 to -0.065. The bad news is that EVERY SINGLE ONE OF MY 15 TEAMS is now negative (i.e. unlucky). How is that possible? 15-for-15? Last round, I had some incredibly unlucky teams... but also had some on the lucky side... it worked out to be almost a net of zero.
.

My Teams	League	W-L	Winning%	ExpW%	Difference
Tigers 09-30-45-67-87-05	3	10-3	0.769	0.777	-0.008
Giants 21-33-47-63-95-09	1	9-4	0.692	0.742	-0.050
Twins 19-31-45-70-86-06	7	8-5	0.615	0.753	-0.138
Reds 20-24-44-76-91-14	7	8-5	0.615	0.668	-0.053
Cubs 06-23-44-66-90-14	4	8-5	0.615	0.639	-0.024
Giants 05-36-50-78-87-04	1	8-5	0.615	0.625	-0.010
Pirates 03-28-44--70-87-12	5	7-6	0.538	0.691	-0.153
Cardinals 22-42-57-72-87-06	3	6-7	0.462	0.593	-0.131
Red Sox 08-41-58-64-81-18	6	6-7	0.462	0.525	-0.063
Yankees 19-1937-45-78-02-17	1	6-7	0.462	0.514	-0.052
Athletics 14-30-47-81-94-03	2	6-7	0.462	0.487	-0.025
Indians 03-30-44-69-88-16	5	6-7	0.462	0.467	-0.005
White Sox 19-27-58-64-01-14	4	5-8	0.385	0.500	-0.115
Dodgers 20-30-49-70-85-11	2	5-8	0.385	0.493	-0.108
Braves 18-28-48-74-96-10	6	5-8	0.385	0.428	-0.043
Averages		6.9	0.528	0.593	-0.065

Wow, a nice 4-11 session with five 1-run losses, which followed a 6-9 session with five 1-run losses. Now 68-82 in 1-run games across all my teams.

Today's pm2 session was one of my best sessions, going 11-4 with a 7-1 record in games decided by 3+ runs. Yet, I still get annoyed with the losses. Even the close wins are annoying. Here are five of the stupid finishes. I had no wins where I came from behind in the 9th or later.

My Yankees give up 3 runs in bottom of 9th, lose 7-5.

Two outs, nobody on in ninth, up 3, my Dodgers give up 3 runs, we win in 11 innings (and improve to 4-7 in 1-run games)

Tied thru 11 innings, my White Sox score 3 in top of 12th, Then with two outs, one on in the bottom of 12th, double, single, single, out & we hold on for 5-4 win.

My Indians are leading 11-5, with 2 outs, nobody on in 9th! They then proceed to give up 9 runs and lose 14-11. (This loss doesn't even count against the league's worst 6-17 record in 1-run games).

Two outs, nobody on in 9th, my Braves give up three straight hits to lose 1-0. '28 Hornsby goes 1 for 3 to improve his average to .248.

A quick recap of my 15 teams. The last 4 columns represents my ranking within the league (AL or NL). My Yankees have been the most frustrating team. 2nd best Exp Win% in the A.L. yet are currently under .500
.

My Teams	Winning%	ExpW%	Difference	Overall Rnk	Hit-Rnk	Pitch-Rnk	W%-Rnk	EW%-Rnk
Tigers 09-30-45-67-87-05	0.630	0.638	-0.008	5	1	2	2	2
Giants 05-36-50-78-87-04	0.605	0.581	0.024	10	5	1	1	1
Red Sox 08-41-58-64-81-18	0.580	0.604	-0.024	19	9	1	2	2
Twins 19-31-45-70-86-06	0.556	0.582	-0.026	36	5	2	5	4
Giants 21-33-47-63-95-09	0.556	0.559	-0.003	38	2	5	4	2
Pirates 03-28-44--70-87-12	0.543	0.588	-0.045	41	2	3	3	1
Reds 20-24-44-76-91-14	0.519	0.551	-0.032	64	2	4	3	2
White Sox 19-27-58-64-01-14	0.519	0.504	0.015	69	9	2	6	6
Cardinals 22-42-57-72-87-06	0.506	0.590	-0.084	74	2	4	5	1
Athletics 14-30-47-81-94-03	0.506	0.543	-0.037	75	5	5	6	4
Braves 18-28-48-74-96-10	0.506	0.503	0.003	82	8	3	4	5
Yankees 19-1937-45-78-02-17	0.494	0.569	-0.075	87	5	1	7	2
Cubs 06-23-44-66-90-14	0.494	0.463	0.031	101	9	8	6	8
Dodgers 20-30-49-70-85-11	0.457	0.506	-0.049	125	2	11	8	7
Indians 03-30-44-69-88-16	0.444	0.463	-0.019	138	10	6	11	10
Averages	0.528	0.550	-0.022		5.1	3.9	4.9	3.8

Schwarze will be proud of my pm sessions where I went 3-8 with my losses coming by a total of 12 runs including 5 1-run losses.